An escalating wave of attacks around the Red Sea has pushed oil prices above $100 a barrel, as Houthi territorial gains near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and strikes on Saudi energy infrastructure threaten a route that has become a critical alternative to the Strait of Hormuz.
asserted
that → escalate → Hormuz
On Sunday, Yemeni government forces, which are backed by Saudi Arabia, launched attacks against the Iran-backed Houthis along the Red Sea.
asserted
which → back → Sea
The strikes were part of an effort to dislodge the Houthis after the rebel group captured the port city of Mokha and Perim Island at the mouth of the Red Sea, key positions that give the group a vantage point to threaten shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
asserted
that → dislodge → Strait
The Houthis also launched missiles at several areas in Saudi Arabia, and in recent weeks attacked the kingdom’s oil infrastructure and shipping.
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Houthis → launch → infrastructure
The group declared a blockade on Saudi vessels in July, but said other countries’ commercial shipping can continue through the narrow Bab el-Mandeb.
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shipping → declare → Mandeb
The escalation has pushed up energy prices around the world.
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escalation → push → world
It also potentially gives Iran leverage over the U.S. by threatening another maritime chokepoint, putting economic pressure on Washington just before the midterm elections.
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It → give → elections
The attacks come as diplomatic efforts to end the nearly seven-month-long U.S. and Israeli war with Iran have dropped off.
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efforts → come → Iran
An anticipated diplomatic meeting between Gulf countries and Iran was postponed, Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi announced on Sunday.
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Albusaidi → postpone → Sunday
The meeting, meant to take place in Oman on Monday, would have been the first talk between Iran and Gulf Cooperation Council countries to discuss the Strait of Hormuz since a mid-June memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran collapsed.
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memorandum → mean → U.S.
The attacks have also reignited major fighting in Yemen’s yearslong civil war, which killed 150,000 people and created one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises.
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which → reignite → crises
The U.N.’s migration agency said more than 82,000 people have been displaced by fighting in Yemen since the start of September.
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people → say → September
That includes more than 2,000 Yemenis who fled to Djibouti, which hosts a U.S. base on the other side of Bab el-Mandeb.
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which → include → Mandeb
Here’s how escalating attacks in the Red Sea have impacted energy prices and what could happen next.
uncertain
what → ’ → prices
Saudi authorities said a projectile struck al-Tuwal in Jazan province, wounding two people and damaging a mosque, several buildings and vehicles.
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projectile → say → mosque
Earlier in the week, Saudi Arabia said a large wave of Houthi missile and drone attacks over four southern cities had injured 73 people.
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wave → say → people
The Houthis said they launched ballistic missiles and drones at the Sharurah military base in Saudi Arabia’s southern Najran region, near the border with Yemen.
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they → say → Yemen
Saudi Arabia has not confirmed damage at the base.
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Arabia → confirm → base
The group alleged on Sunday evening that Saudi Arabia had conducted 58 airstrikes across Yemen during the preceding 24 hours, and 129 strikes across Yemen over the 48 hours before Saturday evening.
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Arabia → allege → evening
Saudi Arabia has not confirmed those strikes.
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Arabia → confirm → strikes
Inside Yemen, government forces launched strikes near Mokha, Dhubab, and elsewhere in Taiz, claiming they destroyed Houthi vehicles and weapons.
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they → launch → vehicles
After initially retreating from parts of the western coast, government units said they were regrouping late Saturday and would return to battle.
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they → retreat → battle
The government-allied National Resistance said more than 500 of its fighters have been killed on the west coast over the past month, while more than 1,000 Houthis were killed in Hodeida and Taiz provinces over the same period.
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Houthis → ally → period
How have the attacks affected oil and gas?
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attacks → affect → oil
Oil prices climbed more than 2% on Monday.
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prices → climb → Monday
Brent crude futures opened at $108.23 a barrel in late Sunday trading, up $3.62 or 3.46%, while WTI futures opened at $103.20, up $3.15 or 3.15% from Friday’s close.
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futures → open → close
U.S. diesel prices surpassed $6 a gallon on Friday for the first time on record, while oil gained more than 8% last week, with Brent surging over $100 a barrel for the first time since July.
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Brent → surpass → July
Saudi Arabia closed its East-West oil pipeline as a precautionary measure after multiple drones from Iraq damaged infrastructure in the Riyadh and Medina regions.
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drones → close → regions
No group has publicly claimed responsibility for the attack, although U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran was “probably” responsible.
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Iran → claim → attack
Saudi Arabia had recently rerouted around 4 million barrels per day—around 4% of global supply—through the pipeline to circumvent Hormuz.
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Arabia → reroute → Hormuz
The attacks around the Red Sea have also added a substantial risk premium to transit through Bab el-Mandeb.
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attacks → add → Mandeb
Increased Houthi activity can discourage shipping even though the group said it will only target Saudi-linked vessels, Allison Minor, the director of the Atlantic Council’s Project for Middle East Integration and former U.S. deputy special envoy for Yemen, warned in a July analysis of the blockade.
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it → increase → blockade
Tanker owners may weigh delaying voyages or charging higher freight rates, which could quickly raise costs for consumers.
uncertain
which → weigh → consumers
While some shipments could be redirected north through the Suez Canal or Egypt’s SUMED pipeline, both of those routes are estimated to carry smaller capacity than Bab el-Mandeb and could mean longer, possibly costlier, journeys for some cargoes.
uncertain
both → redirect → cargoes
Experts say the duration of the disruptions will determine whether the current price increase becomes a sustained supply shock.
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increase → say → disruptions
If operations resume quickly, the pipeline’s effect could remain limited, June Goh, a senior analyst at Sparta Commodities, told Bloomberg.
uncertain
Goh → resume → Bloomberg
An extended shutdown, however, could force Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest crude exporter, to cut production, Goh said.
uncertain
Goh → force → production
Saudi Arabia reportedly has enough oil stored at Yanbu to sustain current exports for five to seven days.
uncertain
Arabia → have → days
The impact on global energy supply is exacerbated by severe restrictions through the Strait of Hormuz, which already pushed up energy prices around the world.
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which → exacerbate → world
The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimated that Gulf oil exports in August were nearly half their pre-war level.
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exports → estimate → August
…and 29 more, not listed.
The Aporia
