In a matter of hours, we'll start to learn whether Donald Trump's Republican Party has retained control of the US Congress, or if Democrats are flipping the House of Representatives, the Senate, or both.
asserted
Democrats → start → Representatives
All 435 seats in the House are up for election, and Democrats would need a net gain of three, compared to the 2024 election result, to take control there.
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Democrats → need → control
Roughly a third of Senate seats are up for grabs, and Democrats would flip that chamber if they can get to 51 seats (a gain of four).
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they → flip → four
So when will we know a result?
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we → know → result
As always, it depends on how close things are.
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things → depend → ?
In 2022, it took days to confirm control of the House and Senate.
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it → take → House
In 2020, it took weeks to know who would control the Senate because of a runoff election in Georgia.
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who → take → Georgia
This year, polls are pointing toward a rosier picture for Democrats.
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polls → point → Democrats
We'll have results across the day on ABC News.
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We → have → News
Here are a few things to keep in mind when they arrive.
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they → keep → mind
What to watch, hour by hour
US election nights can be slightly overwhelming, with hundreds of races, thousands of counties, and election results touchscreens as far as the eye can see (I'll be at one all day on ABC News Channel).
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I → watch → Channel
Here's a quick guide on the most important things to keep an eye on, and when is a good time to take a break and touch some grass (all times below are in Australian Eastern Daylight Time).
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times → keep → Time
The first polls close at 10am in most of Indiana and Kentucky, and the final polls close in Alaska's Aleutian Islands at 5pm.
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polls → close → pm
Loading...10am
We're starting slow, with polls closing in just two states this hour (and not even the whole states).
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polls → load → states
Check in on Kentucky's 6th district, because if the Democrats gain this seat it could be an early sign the Republicans are going to have a tough day.
uncertain
Republicans → check → day
Six more states start to report figures, including Georgia, where incumbent Democrat Jon Ossoff is the firm favourite.
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Ossoff → start → Georgia
There's a Republican-held Senate spot in South Carolina that's attracted a bit of chatter in the final weeks of the campaign.
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that → be → campaign
This seat was held by the late Lindsey Graham, and now his sister Darline is the candidate.
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sister → hold → Graham
We should also see a lot of votes in Florida this hour, where there are many competitive House races.
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We → see → Florida
If you're happy with an early lunch, now would be one of the best times of the day to pause for elevenses, because things are about to speed up dramatically.
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things → pause → elevenses
11:30am
This is where counting starts in two key Senate races: Ohio, which appears to be very competitive, and North Carolina, which Democrats appear well-placed to flip.
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Democrats → start → races
If Republicans appear competitive in this state it could be a long count.
uncertain
it → appear → state
This is 8pm on the east coast of the USA, and we'll start to see figures from a further 18 states, including in the key Senate races of Michigan, Maine, Kansas, and one of the most discussed races this cycle, Texas.
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we → start → races
If the polls are accurate, we may also know if Democrats are flipping enough seats to take control of the House of Representatives (although the party can't officially cross the majority line of 218 seats until polls close on the west coast).
uncertain
polls → know → coast
In this hour we'll start to see returns in Iowa and Nebraska, where Dan Osborn — the main challenger to the Republican incumbent — is a mechanic running as an independent.
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Osborn → start → independent
2pm
Five more states close this hour, including the Senate races in Idaho and Montana, both of which are expected to go the Republicans' way.
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both → close → way
By now, counting will be underway in the vast majority of competitive races.
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counting → count → races
If you didn't take up the chance for an early lunch, or fancy another snack, this might be a good time.
uncertain
this → take → snack
California, the most populous state in the union, ends voting here, and counting begins in its 52 congressional districts.
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counting → end → districts
Democrats hold 43 of them, so if they are on track to control the House they will need to wait for races to be called here before officially crossing the majority line of 218.
4pm
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races → hold → pm
Pencils down in Hawaii and Alaska, which will attract more attention than usual this year, with its Senate race of particular interest.
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which → attract → interest
Democrat Mary Peltola is hoping to defeat Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan, who is up against an independent candidate also called Dan Sullivan.
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who → hop → candidate
The second Sullivan is unlikely to poll very well, but Republicans are concerned that in a competitive race it could confuse enough people to make a difference.
uncertain
it → poll → difference
The Trump administration has directed the Department of Justice to block certification of the Senate race if Sullivan loses because of votes for the other Sullivan.
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Sullivan → direct → Sullivan
Everyone else in Alaska and the USA finished voting an hour ago, except for a single precinct in the Aleutian Islands.
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Everyone → finish → Islands
Fewer than 10,000 people live across the 11 towns and villages in the islands, and in the 2024 election just 154 voters were registered in this final precinct, of which 19 cast a vote.
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19 → live → vote
Typically, Alaskan electoral authorities wait until all polls are closed in the state.
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polls → wait → state
In 2024, we got our first votes in Alaska at 5:07pm AEDT.
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we → get → AEDT
If Alaska's Senate race is close, it could be a long time before we know the winner.
uncertain
we → know → winner
The state uses an Australian-style ranked choice voting system (we call this preferential voting), but preferences are unlikely to be counted for days or even weeks.
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preferences → use → days
…and 17 more, not listed.
The Aporia
