But it can be anywhere from late Tuesday night until over a week after Election Day before the winner becomes clear, depending on how close the House and Senate races will be.
asserted
races → become → Day
Many forecasters are predicting a blue wave will sweep House races, increasing the odds of knowing who controls the upper chamber late Tuesday or early Wednesday.
In recent history, control of the Senate has been determined fairly quickly, but there are a handful of toss-up races this year, including one in Alaska that could face litigation and drag out.
uncertain
that → predict → litigation
The Post breaks down when the polls close in key races and what to watch out for:
asserted
polls → break → what
First polls close in parts of Indiana and Kentucky
asserted
polls → close → Indiana
The first meaningful signal of the night may come out of Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District.
uncertain
signal → come → District
Because the Lexington-area seat sits entirely within the Eastern time zone, its polls are among the earliest in the country to close.
asserted
polls → sit → country
President Trump carried the district by 15 points in 2024, but the race has tightened since, and Fox News’ Power Rankings moved it from Lean R to toss-up.
asserted
Rankings → carry → up
Republican Alvarado faces Democrat Zach Dembo, a former federal prosecutor, for the open seat.
asserted
Alvarado → face → seat
The seat is open because Rep. Andy Barr (R-Ky.) is pursuing the Senate seat of the retiring Mitch McConnell.
asserted
Barr → pursue → McConnell
Barr is favored to beat Democrat Charles Booker.
asserted
Barr → favor → Booker
Polls close in Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia
Jackson now faces former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, a Democrat, in a race Cook Political Report rates as a toss-up.
asserted
Report → close → up
A Bottoms victory would make her the first Democrat elected governor of Georgia since Roy Barnes in 1998.
asserted
her → make → 1998
Sen. Darline Graham (R-S.C.) was appointed to the Senate in July following the sudden death of her brother, Sen. Lindsey Graham, and later agreed to seek a full term at Trump’s behest.
asserted
Graham → appoint → behest
She’s tied with Democrat Annie Andrews at 48% in a New York Times/Siena poll.
asserted
She → tie → poll
Fox News has moved the race from Lean R to toss-up.
asserted
News → move → up
The state Supreme Court struck down Democrats’ gerrymandered map proposal — which likely would have handed Democrats 10 of the state’s 11 seats — in May, so the old districts are still in place.
uncertain
districts → strike → place
Even so, Republican Reps. Jen Kiggans and Rob Wittman are defending districts Democratic Gov. Abigail Spanberger carried in her 2025 landslide.
asserted
Spanberger → defend → landslide
In Vermont, Gov. Phil Scott — a Republican who won his last race by 52 points, in one of the bluest states in the country — is in a tight race for a sixth two-year term against Democrat Amanda Janoo, an economist.
asserted
who → win → Janoo
Scott’s immense personal popularity has sagged in recent years, with Vermont Public measuring a 15% approval drop since 2022.
asserted
Public → sag → 2022
7:30 p.m. ET, polls close in North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia
Ohio is starting to look purple again.
asserted
Ohio → close → Carolina
Former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) led Sen. Jon Husted (R-Ohio) 52% to 47% in a Fox News poll, and Fox moved the race from toss-up to Lean D.
asserted
Fox → lead → D.
The special election will decide who serves the remainder of Vice President JD Vance’s term.
asserted
who → decide → term
Down ballot, the governor’s race could go down as the GOP’s debacle of the cycle.
uncertain
race → go → cycle
Republican Vivek Ramaswamy trails Democrat Amy Acton — who ran Ohio’s COVID response as state health director — by 4.7% in the RealClearPolitics aggregate.
asserted
who → trail → aggregate
Ramaswamy’s most memorable contribution to the race was a $4 million ad featuring Acton’s estranged mother, Donna Arthur, calling her daughter a liar.
asserted
contribution → feature → daughter
The mother lost custody when her husband was indicted for raping Acton when she was 12, and Acton accuses her of abuse and neglect.
asserted
Acton → lose → abuse
Fellow Republicans, including Gov. Mike DeWine and excluding Trump, condemned the ad.
asserted
Republicans → include → ad
In North Carolina, former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) led former RNC Chairman Michael Whatley (R) 52% to 39% in the final Elon University poll, for the seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.).
8 p.m. ET:
asserted
Cooper → lead → Tillis
Polls close in Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee and Washington, DC
asserted
Polls → close → Alabama
Most of Florida actually closes at 7 p.m., and the state famously counts fast, so two redrawn House seats should offer an early indication.
asserted
seats → close → indication
Rep. Kathy Castor’s (D-Fla.) Tampa-area 14th District went from Harris +8 to Trump +11 after redistricting, according to Axios.
uncertain
District → go → Axios
Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Fla.) is defending the 25th District — GOP strategists say a Castor survival would leave Republicans with little hope of holding the House, Axios reported.
asserted
Axios → defend → House
Pennsylvania may be where the House is won or lost.
uncertain
House → win → ?
Four Republican incumbents face competitive races: Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick, Ryan Mackenzie, Rob Bresnahan and Scott Perry.
asserted
incumbents → face → races
At the top of the ticket, Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro is expected to cruise to victory, leading Republican Treasurer Stacy Garrity 59% to 34% in a recent Quinnipiac poll.
asserted
Shapiro → expect → poll
Maine’s Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), seeking a sixth term, is the only Republican on the ballot this cycle in a state Kamala Harris mostly won.
asserted
Harris → seek → state
She’s running against former state Senate President Troy Jackson, who became the Democratic nominee after Graham Platner left the race over sexual assault allegations, which he denies.
asserted
he → run → which
Jackson led Collins 52% to 47% in a YouGov poll released Sunday.
asserted
Jackson → lead → poll
And because Maine uses ranked-choice voting, the race may not be called Tuesday night.
uncertain
race → use → voting
In Mississippi, Republicans are seemingly spooked enough that Trump flew to Corinth on Oct. 26 to rally for Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-Miss.).
asserted
Trump → spook → Smith
…and 35 more, not listed.
The Aporia
