Republican control of House, Senate at stake in nationwide elections on Nov. 3
The upcoming U.S. midterm elections will determine whether Republican President Donald Trump will be free to pursue his agenda during his final two years in office or whether he'll face constraints from a Congress where the Democrats hold new power.
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Democrats → determine → power
Here's what you need to know about the midterms.
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you → need → midterms
Why do U.S. midterms matter?
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midterms → matter → ?
The midterms are a contest for control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate, which together make up the U.S. Congress.
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which → make → Congress
The party that controls the Senate holds sway over presidential appointments to cabinet, the courts and senior posts in federal agencies.
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that → control → agencies
The party that controls the House can launch impeachment proceedings and has the power to initiate budget bills .
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that → control → bills
If one party controls both, it has broad influence over legislation as well as the potential to thwart some presidential actions.
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it → control → actions
How is the race shaping up?
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race → shape → ?
History gives the Republicans plenty of reason to fret.
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History → give → reason
The incumbent president's party has suffered a net loss of seats in Congress in all but two midterms since the 1930s.
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party → suffer → 1930s
The only exceptions were Bill Clinton (1998) and George W. Bush (2002), when each had sky-high approval ratings.
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each → have → ratings
With slim majorities in each chamber, the Republicans have little wiggle room to lose seats and still maintain their hold on Congress.
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Republicans → have → Congress
The Democrats need to flip just four districts to take control of the House (if they hold on to all their current seats).
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they → need → seats
The Democrats also need to take just four Republican-held states to win control of the Senate.
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Democrats → need → Senate
But that's a tougher task than flipping the House because there are far fewer Senate seats up for election and winning each requires a statewide victory.
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winning → flip → victory
All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives are up for grabs, as members of the House are elected to two-year terms.
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members → elect → terms
U.S. senators are elected to six-year terms.
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senators → elect → terms
When does voting happen?
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voting → happen → ?
Midterms, like the word implies, come at the two-year mark of a president's four-year term.
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word → imply → term
Many U.S. voters will choose to vote before then, either in advance polls or by mail-in ballots, a method the Trump administration is trying to restrict.
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administration → choose → method
You may also have heard that people across the U.S. have been voting at various times since the spring in primaries, which are the contests to select each party's candidates.
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which → hear → candidates
In most states, only people who are registered Republicans or Democrats can vote in the party's primaries.
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who → register → primaries
How does Trump factor in?
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Trump → factor → ?
Only one president since 1950 has headed into a midterm with an approval rating below 40 per cent: George W. Bush in 2006 (at 37 per cent), when his Republicans lost 30 seats in the House and six in the Senate.
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Republicans → head → Senate
Despite his low polling numbers, Trump is vowing to give "a lot of speeches" in states and districts where the races are tight to help Republican candidates.
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races → vow → candidates
Some of those candidates are quietly asking the White House to keep him away, according to reporting by Politico.
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Some → ask → Politico
While U.S. polls differ slightly on the precise numbers, there's a strong thread of consistency suggesting the top issue of concern among voters right now is the cost of living.
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issue → differ → living
Whether it's gas prices pushed up as a result of the war against Iran or the prices of consumer goods rising because of Trump's tariffs, pocketbook issues predominate the midterm polling.
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issues → push → polling
Trump, as the dominant figure in U.S. politics for the past decade, will undoubtedly be an issue, particularly for moderate Republican or swing voters who backed him in the 2024 presidential election but have soured on him since then, according to polling.
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who → back → polling
Turnout in midterms is always lower than during presidential election years, so each party will be striving for ways to motivate their base.
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party → strive → base
For the Democrats, weakening Trump's power could be that driving force.
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weakening → weaken → power
For the Republicans, stoking fear about what a Democratic-controlled Congress would do to the economy is a key advertising message.
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Congress → stoke → economy
Of the 35 Senate seats up for election this time, fewer than 10 are considered by campaign analysts to be at risk of changing hands.
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10 → consider → hands
The Republicans are considered most vulnerable in North Carolina and Maine, but polling suggests they also are in tough to hang on to their Senate seats in Ohio, Alaska, Iowa and even Texas, where no Democrat has won a statewide election since 1988.
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Democrat → consider → 1988
The Democrats' biggest challenges to hold appear to be in the Senate races in Michigan and New Hampshire.
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challenges → hold → Michigan
A Michigan Democrat wants to put Canada on the ballot during the midterms.
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Democrat → want → midterms
Are voters listening?
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voters → listen → ?
With U.S. midterm elections looming, Democrats are clashing over how to win
Where are the key House races?
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races → loom → ?
More than 80 per cent of House seats are considered safe for either the Republicans or the Democrats, according to the University of Virginia Center for Politics newsletter Crystal Ball, which has forecast and analyzed every election for U.S. president, House, Senate and state governors since 2002.
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which → consider → 2002
That political inertia leaves only a few dozen districts across the country truly "in play," as campaign strategists describe races where the outcome is in doubt.
Crystal Ball has labelled 17 Republican-held districts as toss-ups, including three in Pennsylvania and two in Michigan.
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Ball → leave → Michigan
…and 1 more, not listed.
The Aporia
