As America’s leaders and citizens begin to comprehend what happened at the ballot box the day before, they also start to predict how that will play out at the main event in two years’ time.
asserted
that → begin → time
Two recent presidents got clobbered at their midterm litmus tests.
asserted
presidents → clobber → tests
In 2006, president George W. Bush, besieged by forever wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and with a weakening economy that would morph into the GFC, saw a Democratic tidal wave sweep control of both the House and Senate.
asserted
wave → besiege → House
Facing the media, Bush said the electoral defeat he’d suffered was “a thumping”.
asserted
he → face → media
In 2010, just two years into Barrack Obama’s first term, Democrats lost 63 seats in the House, obliterating Obama’s majority to pass legislation.
asserted
Democrats → lose → legislation
Obama faced up to it: he said he got a “shellacking” and that the losses were “humbling”.
asserted
losses → face → shellacking
We will never hear those words from Donald Trump.
asserted
We → hear → Trump
When the incumbent president got his own shellacking in his 2018 midterms – with Democrats picking up 41 seats to win control of the House but Republicans keeping the Senate – Trump tweeted: “Tremendous success tonight.”
asserted
Trump → get → Senate
The new Democratic majority in the House would lead to Trump’s impeachment twice over the next two years.
asserted
majority → lead → years
On the day after the midterms in 2006, Bush announced the resignation of Donald Rumsfeld, his secretary of defence and the official most identified with management of the forever wars.
asserted
Bush → announce → wars
Trump will not fire his secretary of war, Pete Hegseth, over his management of the war in Iran, but before the new Congress commences on January 3, 2027, Hegseth will face a vote on his impeachment led by Thomas Massie, a Republican from Kentucky whose career was ended by Trump earlier this year.
asserted
career → fire → Trump
And if that effort fails, the Democrats will try again later in January, with every prospect for Hegseth’s impeachment.
asserted
Democrats → fail → impeachment
The days after the midterms are also marked by resignations and retirements in the White House and throughout the executive branch.
asserted
days → mark → branch
There is heavy speculation that Susie Wiles, Trump’s chief of staff, might exit.
uncertain
Wiles → be → staff
Other members of the cabinet may want to reclaim their lives.
uncertain
members → want → lives
In the immediate days after the midterms, Trump is likely to join with Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and launch attacks on Iran of overwhelming force to bring the country to its knees and sue for peace.
asserted
Trump → join → peace
This expansion of the war, with no certainty of its outcome, will provoke fear and doubt in the US and across the world.
asserted
expansion → provoke → world
As the polls close on voting day and results come in, exceptional attention will be paid – because of Trump’s attempts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election, culminating in the January 6 insurrection and attack on the Capitol – to the counting and reporting of votes.
asserted
attention → close → votes
The Department of Justice has announced that 1000 poll watchers will be dispersed to certain areas of the county to monitor voting in areas deemed highly competitive.
asserted
watchers → announce → areas
Uniformed security forces will be deployed to polling places in big cities with large numbers of Democratic voters.
asserted
forces → deploy → voters
On the night and in the days following, as the ballot count proceeds, the Associated Press will call the results of the races – just like Casey Briggs of the ABC does here in Australia.
asserted
Briggs → follow → Australia
The AP’s call is considered authoritative.
asserted
call → consider → ?
Trump will demand, especially in Senate races, that Republicans who are trailing the vote count not concede.
asserted
who → demand → count
This will set the stage for battles in the states over their certification of winners.
asserted
This → set → winners
Many have speculated that Trump will order authorities to seize voting machines and ballots and conduct their own recounts.
asserted
Trump → speculate → recounts
But the Democratic candidate’s campaign in Alaska is under heavy scrutiny over alleged attempts to fiddle with the official ballot and skew the outcome.
asserted
campaign → fiddle → outcome
Shortly after the election, two scenarios for control of Congress will take shape.
asserted
scenarios → take → shape
Democrats are all but assured they will win control of the House.
asserted
they → assure → House
Speaker Mike Johnson effectively conceded defeat two weeks before the election
asserted
Johnson → concede → election
: “In the unlikely scenario where we lost the majority, I would expect my colleagues would ask me to continue leading this conference, even if we have divided government,” he said.
asserted
he → lose → government
Democrats will immediately rally behind their current leader, Hakeem Jeffries, who will become the first Black speaker of the House.
asserted
who → rally → House
The Democrats’ legislative program on taking power will be centred on the affordability crisis and the legislation they will pass to help households across the country.
asserted
they → take → country
Impeachment of Trump will be deferred – for now.
asserted
Impeachment → defer → Trump
The House Democrats will commence huge investigations of Trump, his alleged corruption and $US2 billion increase in his personal wealth, his obsessive overriding of Congress’ power of the purse and his impoundment and unilateral reassignment of funds Congress appropriated for specific programs, his overt control over investigations and prosecutions by the Department of Justice against his cohort of enemies he wants to punish, and other abuses of executive power.
asserted
he → commence → power
If the Democratic “blue wave” dissipates in the final days of this campaign, and Republicans can hold their seats including Maine, Texas, Iowa and Kansas, the Republicans will continue to control the Senate.
asserted
Republicans → dissipate → Senate
This replay of 2018 would mean that Trump can continue to win Senate confirmation of his high-level appointees: Supreme Court justices and other judges and nominees for the cabinet and executive branch agencies.
asserted
Trump → mean → cabinet
If the Democrats can claim the Senate in the days after the midterms, a much more powerful scenario will take hold.
uncertain
scenario → claim → hold
The two bodies can work together to pass legislation on affordability and send it to the president.
asserted
bodies → work → president
Trump will veto what he receives.
asserted
he → veto → what
Democrats will have established their agenda for the American people, and Trump will have reaffirmed his fidelity to his Make America Great Again supporters.
asserted
America → establish → supporters
…and 17 more, not listed.
The Aporia
