Two years after riding a wave of discontent to total control of Washington, Donald Trump and the Republicans face the same message of change that brought them to power.
asserted
that → rid → power
This time, it's aimed squarely at them.
asserted
it → aim → them
It's not a presidential election year, but the result could reverberate from the White House to Brussels.
uncertain
result → reverberate → Brussels
Republicans currently hold a narrow 219-214 majority in the House and a 53-47 majority in the Senate.
asserted
Republicans → hold → Senate
And the political winds that carried him back to the White House are now blowing hard in the other direction.
asserted
that → carry → direction
The change that brought them to power
Two years ago, inflation and the economy propelled Trump back to the White House and handed Republicans control of both chambers of Congress.
asserted
inflation → bring → Congress
According to 2024 ABC News exit polling, 28% of voters said the ability to bring needed change was the most important quality in a candidate.
uncertain
ability → accord → candidate
Trump won those voters 74% to 24%.
asserted
Trump → win → 24
The economy was the top issue for 32% of voters, and Trump won them 81% to 18%, according to NBC News exit polls.
uncertain
Trump → win → polls
That message carried down the ballot.
asserted
message → carry → ballot
Republicans flipped four Senate seats — West Virginia, Montana, Ohio and Pennsylvania — to retake the chamber, ousting long-serving Democrats such as Sherrod Brown and Bob Casey.
asserted
Republicans → flip → Brown
Republicans went on the attack, and the Democrats never managed to mount a defence.
asserted
Democrats → go → defence
They face the same message of change that brought them to power, and it does not appear to be a message that will favour them.
asserted
that → face → them
The economy is in worse shape than when Trump regained power.
asserted
Trump → regain → power
Inflation is not only rising, it is higher than when he was elected: 2.7% in November 2024, against 3.7% this September, up from 3.4% in August and driven largely by soaring energy prices.
asserted
he → rise → prices
Voters have noticed.
asserted
Voters → notice → ?
Trump left office in 2021 above water on the economy, 48% to 41%, and in 2024 voters trusted him over Kamala Harris to handle it by 53% to 46%, according to NBC News exit polls.
uncertain
voters → leave → polls
Today, just 34% approve of his handling of the economy and 65% disapprove, according to the CNBC All-America Economic Survey — his lowest mark in either term, and a disapproval rating worse than Joe Biden's worst showing.
uncertain
% → approve → showing
The once-unthinkable has happened: 37% of voters now say Democrats have the better approach on the economy, against 33% for Republicans, according to the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, which puts Trump's approval at 32%.
uncertain
which → happen → %
The broken promise
The dismal reversal can be traced back to Trump's largest broken promise: no more wars.
asserted
reversal → break → promise
He repeated it relentlessly in 2024, as did his surrogates and the podcasters who backed him.
asserted
who → repeat → him
On Ukraine, CNN counted at least 53 occasions on which he promised to end the war within 24 hours or before even taking office.
asserted
he → count → office
Today, Russia's war on Ukraine grinds on, its latest "breakthrough" a local humanitarian ceasefire in the single occupied town of Oleshky.
asserted
breakthrough → grind → Oleshky
A year after Trump declared the war in Gaza over, few of the ceasefire's promises have been fulfilled.
asserted
few → declare → promises
And in February, Trump started a new war, joining Israel in launching strikes on Iran.
asserted
Trump → start → Iran
At a rally in Texas on Tuesday, Trump told supporters the war would end "whenever I want it to end.
asserted
it → tell → supporters
It was unpopular from day one: 56% of Americans opposed it in the first week, according to a PBS News/NPR/Marist poll.
uncertain
% → oppose → poll
The opposition has only grown.
asserted
opposition → grow → ?
Disapproval of Trump's handling of the war has risen from 61% in March to 65%, according to Pew Research, and in September a record share of more than 60% told Fox News it was the wrong decision.
uncertain
it → rise → News
The war has rattled the global economy, but Americans feel it most at the pump.
asserted
Americans → rattle → pump
Regular gasoline costs an average of $4.25 a gallon, up from $2.98 before the war, according to AAA, which says this is the first October that gas has averaged more than $4.
uncertain
gas → cost → 4
Diesel has climbed from $3.76 to $6.35.
asserted
Diesel → climb → 6.35
That hits everyone, but it hits Trump's rural base hardest: the farmers, ranchers and truckers who run on diesel.
asserted
who → hit → diesel
'We're blowing it away'
Trump's response has been to insist that nothing is wrong.
asserted
nothing → blow → it
"Our first term, we had the greatest economy in the history of our country, and we're blowing it away," he told a rally in Tennessee this month.
asserted
he → have → Tennessee
In March, as oil prices spiked, he went further: "When oil prices go up, we make a lot of money," he wrote on Truth Social.
asserted
he → spike → Truth
But the impact on Americans is impossible to hide, or to blame on his opponents.
asserted
impact → hide → opponents
Eight in ten rate the economy as fair or poor, according to CNBC.
uncertain
ten → rate → CNBC
Hitting home in the heartland
asserted
Hitting → hit → heartland
The war is not the only policy hurting Trump's most loyal voters.
asserted
war → hurt → voters
…and 46 more, not listed.
The Aporia
