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Republicans are on course to lose the House of Representatives in less than a week, and even President Donald Trump fears his voters will stay home.
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voters → sign → week
The GOP has controlled the White House, Senate and House since Trump returned to power in January 2025.
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Trump → control → January
But polling throughout the midterm cycle has consistently shown voters favoring Democrats, and the gap has widened in recent months.
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gap → show → months
Trump has openly questioned whether conservatives will turn out when his name isn’t on the ballot.
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name → question → ballot
‘If I don’t run, will those people go out and vote, and that’s the one thing I can’t tell,’ he said recently, urging Republicans to vote as if he were running.
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he → run → Republicans
The party does hold one big advantage: money.
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party → hold → advantage
Republicans are outraising Democrats nationally and in key battlegrounds.
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Republicans → outraise → battlegrounds
But cash can’t buy turnout, and the House will be won or lost in a handful of swing districts.
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House → buy → districts
Read on for the seats most likely to decide the majority, where scandals, shocking allegations and family feuds are upending the closest races.
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scandals → read → races
10 US Senate and US House Seats most likely to determine control of Congress in November
President Donald Trump is likely to be working without a GOP majority in the US House of Representatives for the last two years of his second term
The US House
Republicans currently have a majority in the US House of Representatives, 218 to 212.
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Republicans → determine → Representatives
The lower chamber currently has four vacancies, three Democratic and one Republican.
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chamber → have → vacancies
To gain a majority, Democrats need to flip at least three seats.
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Democrats → gain → seats
These are the tightest races in the lead-up to November involving missing congressmen, shocking abuse claims, and more.
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These → involve → congressmen
New Jersey’s 7th District: Rep. Tom Kean Jr (R) versus Rebecca Bennett (D)
Rep. Tom Kean Jr (R) and Rebecca Bennett (D)
Incumbent Republican Congressman Tom Kean Jr of New Jersey missed over 140 consecutive votes earlier this year in an absence he attributed to depression upon his return to Washington.
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he → miss → Washington
During the hiatus, he was overly cryptic, questioned by both local and national media about his secrecy, and raised doubts about his ability to serve his constituents.
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he → question → constituents
In November, Kean faces Rebecca Bennett, a former Navy helicopter pilot who easily bested a trio of other Democrats for the nomination.
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who → face → nomination
The seat was moved from 'toss up' to 'lean Democrat' by the Cook Political Report at the end of September.
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seat → move → September
Ohio's 7th District: Rep. Max Miller (R) versus Brian Poindexter (D)
Rep. Max Miller (R) and Brian Poindexter (D)
The drama is overflowing in Ohio's 7th District as domestic 'abuse' allegations plague the run of Trump-backed Max Miller, who currently holds the seat.
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who → overflow → seat
His ex-wife Emily Moreno, the daughter of sitting Senator Bernie Moreno of Ohio, has made scathing claims against him involving their two-year-old daughter, which he has denied.
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he → sit → which
However, his standing with voters has taken a steep dive since the physical abuse allegations, first reported by the Daily Mail, came to light.
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allegations → take → light
The Cook Political Report rates this seat as a 'toss up' and recent polling showed Miller trailing by about 8 points.
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Miller → rat → points
Pennsylvania’s 10th District: Rep. Scott Perry (R) versus Janelle Stelson (D)
Rep. Scott Perry (R) and Janelle Stelson (D)
Incumbent Republican Scott Perry is set for a rematch with Janelle Stelson.
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Perry → set → Stelson
He beat her by the skin of his teeth in 2024, with 50.5 percent of the vote to his opponent's 49.3 percent.
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He → beat → percent
Perry is a member of the ultra-conservative Freedom Caucus, raising questions about how well he matches the swing district.
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he → raise → district
The seat was shifted to 'lean Democrat' in the first week of October after being ranked as a 'toss up' by the Cook Political Report.
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seat → shift → Report
A New York Times/Siena University poll conducted for The Philadelphia Inquirer in the third week of October found the two candidates tied at 48 percent each.
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candidates → conduct → percent
Republican incumbent Jen Kiggans is set for another face-off with Democrat Elaine Luria, whom she wrested Virginia's Second District from in 2022.
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she → set → 2022
Luria represented the seat for two terms after winning it in a midterm election in 2018 during the last time Trump was in the White House, ousting Republican Scott Taylor.
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Trump → represent → Taylor
Both Kiggans and Luria are veterans, having served in the US Navy, and they seek to represent a seat that is home to nearly 90,000 veterans.
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that → serve → veterans
The seat is rated to 'lean Democrat' after shifting from a 'toss up' by the Cook Political Report.
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seat → rat → Report
A poll conducted by Christopher Newport University in the first week of October found Luria up by three percent, 46 to 43.
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Luria → conduct → 43
New York's 17th District: Mike Lawler (R) versus Cait Conley (D)
Mike Lawler (R) and Cait Conley (D)
A big race to keep an eye on is incumbent Republican Mike Lawler versus veteran Cait Conley in New York.
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race → keep → York
Lawler is under scrutiny for his close friendship with Max Miller, who is facing abuse allegations, and lavish spending on the campaign trail.
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who → face → trail
He also recently admitted that he was 'arrested for DWI' in his younger days, and a copy of the decade-old police report by the Daily Mail showed a record of reckless actions by Lawler at the time.
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copy → admit → time
He was recorded as having blood-alcohol content of .14, nearly double the state legal limit of .08 at the time of the incident.
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He → record → incident
Unlike some of his GOP colleagues, Lawler has embraced President Donald Trump, and was rewarded with a prime speaking spot at the Republican Midterm Convention in Dallas in September.
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Lawler → embrace → September
Lawler was given a surprising assist in the form of a ringing endorsement from one outgoing Democratic colleague, Mainer Jared Golden, who wrote a letter backing Lawler which was published in his hometown paper at the end of September.
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which → give → September
The seat is rated 'toss up' by the Cook Political Report.
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seat → rat → Report
Michigan’s 7th District: Rep. Tom Barrett (R) versus William Lawrence (D)
Rep. Tom Barrett (R) and William Lawrence (D)
Freshman Republican Tom Barrett has an uphill battle in his first-ever re-election bid this November.
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Barrett → have → bid
He is facing off against William Lawrence, a progressive climate organizer with a 13-year-old felony case related to his activism.
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He → face → activism
…and 21 more, not listed.
The Aporia
