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Republicans face an uphill battle to keep their Senate majority as the midterm elections quickly approach on Tuesday.
asserted
elections → sign → Tuesday
October polling has consistently shown that voters prefer the Democratic candidate nationally and in a host of crucial states.
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voters → show → states
President Trump himself has cast doubt on the GOP's chance at success with concerns about whether conservative voters will show up to vote this fall – especially because he's not on the ballot.
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he → cast → ballot
'If I don't run, will those people go out and vote, and that's the one thing I can't tell,' Trump said recently while also urging GOP voters to act like he himself is on the ballot.
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he → run → ballot
Despite this, Republicans are trouncing Democrats in fundraising, both nationally and in key battleground races.
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Republicans → trounce → races
It's an indication that control of Congress will be decided not by Washington insiders, but by the voters who turn out in key races in Maine, Michigan, Texas and Alaska.
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who → decide → Maine
With North Carolina the likely first pick-up for Democrats on election night, read on to see what seats are to be majority-makers as scandals, scathing attacks and family dramas are shaking up races that will determine the balance of power in 2027.
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that → read → 2027
10 US Senate and US House Seats most likely to determine control of Congress in November
The US Senate
Republicans currently hold 53 seats in the Senate, and Democrats need to pick up at least four of them to control the upper chamber in the next Congress.
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Democrats → determine → Congress
The following 10 Senate races are likely to determine control of the Senate.
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races → follow → Senate
Maine Senate: Susan Collins (R) versus Troy Jackson (D)
Susan Collins (R) and Troy Jackson (D)
GOP Senator Susan Collins is in the midst of a tough re-election battle in Maine, which has one of the oldest electorates in the country.
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which → have → country
After her previous opponent Graham Platner dropped out of the race amid a slew of allegations of sexual misconduct and abuse, which he denies, Maine Democrats selected former state Senate President Troy Jackson as their nominee.
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Democrats → drop → nominee
But he has also been marred by his own controversies, including a revelation that he fathered children with his second cousin.
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he → mar → cousin
The seat is rated to be a 'toss up' by the Cook Political Report after formerly being classed as one that 'leans Republican.'
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that → rat → Republican
A CNN/SSRS poll published in the last week of October found Jackson to be up four points, with the support of 49 percent of respondents, while Collins was supported by 45 percent of those polled.
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Collins → publish → those
But Collins has defied many a bad poll before on Election Day.
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Collins → defy → Day
Georgia Senate: Jon Ossoff (D) versus Mike Collins (R)
Jon Ossoff (D) and Mike Collins (R)
Incumbent Democratic golden boy Jon Ossoff is seen as one of the party's rising stars at the age of 39.
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boy → see → 39
He is now heavily favored in his race against scandal-plagued GOP lawmaker Mike Collins, who has been burdened by a slew of personal and personnel issues.
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who → plague → issues
The Daily Mail reported that Collins' son-in-law shared white supremacist rhetoric, and that his top advisors have been referred to the House Ethics Committee over an alleged misuse of funds.
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advisors → report → funds
The seat's rating was shifted towards Democrats, from 'lean Democrat' to 'likely Democrat' by the Cook Political Report at the end of September.
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rating → shift → September
Ossoff has led in all recent polls, and was even given a double-digit advantage, garnering the support of 55 percent of respondents to an Echelon Insights poll conducted in the third week of October.
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Ossoff → lead → October
Collins scored the backing of just 40 percent of respondents to that poll.
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Collins → score → poll
New Hampshire Senate: Chris Pappas (D) versus John Sununu (R)
Chris Pappas (D) and John Sununu (R)
Outgoing incumbent Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen declined to seek re-election to a fourth term in New Hampshire, in a seat which Democrats are likely to still hold in November.
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Democrats → decline → November
Republicans are hoping for a surprise in the Granite State.
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Republicans → hop → State
The state's GOP governor, Kelly Ayotte, is highly popular, and the Sununu name is one of the most recognized in New Hampshire politics.
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name → recognize → politics
John Sununu has been elected to both the US House and US Senate, serving a single term.
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Sununu → elect → term
The seat was shifted towards Democrats by the Cook Political Report, after a brief time in the 'toss-up' column.
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seat → shift → column
A UMass Lowell poll conducted in the first two weeks of October found Congressman Chris Pappas up by seven, with 48 percent of respondents backing him, compared to the 41 percent who back Sununu.
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who → conduct → Sununu
Ohio Senate: Jon Husted (R) versus Sherrod Brown (D)
Jon Husted (R) and Sherrod Brown (D)
Incumbent Jon Husted is running statewide to fill out the term after being appointed to Ohio's US Senate seat after JD Vance vacated the post for the vice presidency.
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Vance → run → presidency
Sherrod Brown, a 73-year-old Democrat, is mounting a comeback bid for his old Senate seat.
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Brown → mount → seat
The Daily Mail unearthed video of Brown lamenting the lack of diversity among congressional staff and commenting on ‘black and brown’ night cleaners.
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Brown → unearth → cleaners
The seat is rated to be a 'toss up' by the Cook Political Report, and polling released in late September showed a tied race.
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polling → rat → race
Users of the prediction market Kalshi are betting for Brown to win, by a margin of 66 percent to 34 percent.
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Brown → bet → 34
The winner needs to run again in 2028.
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winner → need → 2028
An Echelon Insights poll conducted in the third week of October found Husted and Brown tied at 47 percent apiece.
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Husted → conduct → percent
Iowa Senate: Ashley Hinson (R) versus Josh Turek (D)
Ashley Hinson (R) and Josh Turek (D)
In Iowa, Republican Congresswoman Ashley Hinson is on the statewide ballot for the first time, having represented a seat on the eastern side of the state since 2021, after flipping it in 2020.
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Hinson → represent → 2020
Josh Turek, a state lawmaker, made it out of a bruising primary after getting boosts from major Democrats.
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Turek → make → Democrats
One of his biggest backers has been former President Barack Obama, who filmed a basketball-themed ad with Turek, a former Paralympic hooper.
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who → film → Turek
Iowa leans Republican, but Hinson could be negatively impacted by Democrat Rob Sand performing well in the gubernatorial race.
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Sand → lean → race
The seat was rated 'lean Republican' by the Cook Political Report, but shifted to a 'toss-up' in the end of August.
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seat → rat → August
An Echelon Insights poll conducted in the third week of October found Turek up by two percent over Hinson, 45 percent to 43 percent.
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Turek → conduct → Hinson
…and 34 more, not listed.
The Aporia
