Healey’s opening remarks
John Healey starts by saying that his budget is “delivered at a time when global uncertainties and pressures are swirling worldwide and hitting people here at home”.
He says the administration will have a new approach to steer us through global economic storms and give people fresh hope for Britain’s future.
asserted
administration → open → future
He says it is an honour to deliver a budget as chancellor, before paying tribute to Rachel Reeves’s fiscal discipline.
asserted
it → say → discipline
She took the difficult decisions required, he says.
asserted
he → take → decisions
Trade tensions are acting as a drag on global economic growth, as is the war in Iran, he says.
asserted
he → act → Iran
The UK did not want this war, and it has driven up costs for British families through higher energy costs and higher interest rates.
asserted
it → want → costs
The UK will spend £14bn more on debt interest this year.
asserted
UK → spend → interest
Fiscal discipline is his first priority as chancellor, Healey says.
asserted
Healey → say → chancellor
A very immediate précis of the main political points of his first budget, with Healey talking up “breathing space” on the cost of living and a break from the Keir Starmer era, but also a mention of the “global uncertainties” which – and he cannot say this – might make his tweaks and changes slightly moot.
uncertain
tweaks → talk → this
This is set out more explicitly with a long section on the Iran war, and a note that the UK did not seek it.
asserted
UK → set → it
Growth and inflation forecasts
-
Healey says he will meet the fiscal rule that day-to-day spending must be covered by tax receipts, and the investment rule that government debt, defined as public sector net financial liabilities, must be falling as a percentage of GDP in the third year of the forecast.
asserted
debt → say → forecast
-
The government will have £15bn of headroom in 2029-30 and £20bn in 2030-31, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility, the government’s forecaster.
uncertain
government → have → Responsibility
-
Government borrowing will be 4.2% of GDP this year, 3.4% next year, then 2.9%, 2.1% and 1.8% by 2030-31, the OBR says.
asserted
OBR → say → 2030
-
Predictions of slowing growth were wrong, Healey says.
asserted
Healey → slow → growth
The OBR says GDP will grow by 1.2% this year, 1% next year, 1.6% in 2028, 1.8% in 2029, 1.7% in 2030 and 1.6% in 2031.
asserted
GDP → say → 2031
In March the OBR had predicted GDP growth of 1.1% in 2026, rising to 1.6% in 2027 and 2028, and dropping to 1.5% in 2029 and 2030.
asserted
OBR → predict → 2029
-
Government debt is forecast to be 83.2% of GDP this year, 83.8% next year then falling to 83.1%, 82.3% and 81.7% in the following years.
asserted
debt → forecast → years
PW: A statistics-rich part of the speech which is largely for economists and MPs, but Healey is at pains to argue that the government is treating the deficit seriously, which is a key element in trying to shape reaction.
asserted
which → argue → reaction
This section also brings the first joke in the speech, one which is – something now almost as traditional as a freeze of fuel duty – about Liz Truss and her mini budget.
asserted
which → bring → Truss
Labour’s priority is cheaper energy, Healey says.
asserted
Healey → say → ?
He announces a series of measures to try to cut bills, including scrapping a levy on bills to fund hydrogen to lower bills and moving older renewables onto fixed-price contracts.
asserted
He → announce → contracts
-
Healey says the government will extend a VAT cut through the winter and spring to July, taking £50 pounds off the annual price cap.
asserted
government → say → cap
-
He confirms the government is abolishing standing charges on gas bills for 23m homes in a move it says will save two-thirds of households an average of £45 a year.
asserted
it → confirm → 45
He says 20m households in council tax bands A to D will receive a £100 energy payment paid directly into bank accounts.
asserted
households → say → accounts
It will cost £2.6bn, he says.
asserted
he → cost → 2.6bn
But again the main commitment is on the cost of living, and the much-trailed plan to remove standing charges from gas bills, plus a small-to-mid-sized rabbit of a one-off £100 energy payment for smaller homes.
asserted
commitment → trail → homes
Cost of living measures
-
Fuel duty will be frozen for the 16th year in a row.
asserted
duty → freeze → row
Every government forecast over that time has pretended it will then rise in future years to raise more cash, only for the freeze to continue.
asserted
freeze → pretend → cash
-
Healey increases the higher mileage rate for people who use their cars for work from £0.25 to £0.30 a mile.
asserted
who → increase → 0.30
-
Healey says he will remove import tariffs on more than 100 products, including baked beans, chocolate and gherkins, to reduce their shop prices as trailed before the budget.
asserted
he → say → budget
-
On paternity leave, self-employed fathers will be eligible for paternity leave pay for the first time.
asserted
fathers → employ → time
The high street
-
Healey says he will increase the threshold for small business rate relief from £12,000 to £18,000, giving a tax break to 70,000 smaller firms.
asserted
he → say → firms
-
On gambling, machine game duty will rise from 20% to 25% for higher stakes machines.
asserted
duty → rise → machines
-
Adult gaming centres and vape shops will not qualify for business rates relief.
asserted
centres → qualify → relief
-
Online marketplace sellers will be targeted to ensure they are unable get around VAT.
asserted
they → target → VAT
But more help with business rates for shops and hospitality businesses will be welcome and popular, and few outside the industry will complain about paying for it through higher taxes on gambling.
asserted
few → complain → gambling
Healey says there will be new funding from HMRC to improve compliance and stronger powers to collect overdue tax from those who “can clearly afford to pay but ignore repeated contact”.
asserted
who → say → contact
-
Healey confirms he will reverse his predecessor’s decision to cut the tax-free allowance on cash individual savings accounts (ISAs) from £20,000 to £12,000 a year from April.
asserted
he → confirm → April
Healey says he celebrates the role that banks play in the UK economy, but they will pay an extra 3% on the bank surcharge for 15 months from January.
asserted
they → say → January
In a budget characterised by relative secrecy, raising taxes on banks was one of the policies that did leak out beforehand.
asserted
that → characterise → policies
The one exception is the expected increase in the windfall tax on bank profits, which will be set aside to pay for measures to help with energy bills.
asserted
which → expect → bills
…and 10 more, not listed.
The Aporia
