Labour byelection win shows party starting to win back voters on left

Read the original at The Guardian ↗
The Guardian · collected 2026-10-09 · by Sammy Gecsoyler and Peter Walker

Quick Summary

Labour won a London byelection in Holborn and St Pancras with Sagal Abdi-Wali securing 45% of the vote against low turnout of 38.7%. This victory is seen by Labour as a sign they are regaining support from left-leaning voters who were previously disillusioned under Keir Starmer's leadership. Lucy Powell, Labour’s deputy leader, claimed the result shows the party understands and addresses voter concerns, emphasizing unity around progressive values ahead of future elections.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-10-09, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

AI analysis runs on qwen2.5:14b, locally

Story summary

The Holborn and St Pancras by-election in north London aims to replace Sir Keir Starmer, who resigned from his position as MP. The race is primarily between Labour's Daniella Abdi-Wali and Green Party leader Zack Polanski. Historically a Labour stronghold since 1983, the seat has seen significant challenges due to recent political tensions, particularly over the war in Gaza which led many left-wing voters to support the Greens during local elections in May 2026.

Polanski hopes to capitalize on this trend and secure his party's first parliamentary seat. However, his campaign faced a setback when the Green Party conference controversially passed a motion declaring "Zionism is racism," though Polanski abstained from voting and later condemned any exclusion based on religious affiliation. This has put pressure on his leadership and could affect voter sentiment.

Prime Minister Andy Burnham issued a last-minute appeal for voters to support Abdi-Wali, emphasizing the importance of maintaining Labour's strong presence in the area given its history as a Labour stronghold held continuously since 1983 by Frank Dobson and Keir Starmer. Polls suggest the race is tight, with both parties making final pushes ahead of election day. The outcome could be pivotal for Polanski’s leadership of the Green Party and Burnham's efforts to restore faith in the Labour Party among left-wing voters.

Written for “Holborn By-electionCampaigns” on 2026-10-09, grounded in this article and the 40 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The model judged this article politically coded and scored it -0.45, but 1 quote(s) could not be found in the article and the other 2 are attributed speech rather than the article's own narration, so the score is not published.
Written under an earlier scoring contract, which gave a paragraph rather than checkable quotes. Re-analysing this article replaces it.
Leaning score withheld for article 68914: no verified evidence · logged 2026-10-09

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
28
claim-shaped sentences
Uncertain
11%
3 of 28 hedged
Leaning
withheld
no quote in the article backed the model's score
Correction & hedging signals
68.5
corrections and hedging in what we collected; not a measure of accuracy
Outlets on this story
41
Politics
Narrative spread
1
articles carrying this framing
Analyzed 2026-10-09 · how these are computed

Story

📰 Holborn By-electionCampaigns
Politics · 41 article(s) covering the same event. See how they differ ↓

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 11% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Evening Standard
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 23% hedged 3 of 13 📰 publisher trust 67
“Both articles describe the outcome of the Holborn and St Pancras byelection where Labour won with Sagal Abdi-Wali taking 45% of the vote, defeating Zack Polanski who came in second.”
Evening Standard
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 38% hedged 5 of 13 📰 publisher trust 67
“Both articles describe the results of the Holborn and St Pancras byelection, with Labour's Sagal Abdi-Wali winning over the Green Party leader Zack Polanski.”
Daily Mail
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 20% hedged 6 of 30 📰 publisher trust 64
“Both articles describe the same Holborn and St Pancras by-election on October 8, 2026, with Labour's Sagal Abdi-Wali winning over Zack Polanski of the Green Party.”
Evening Standard
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 9% hedged 1 of 11 📰 publisher trust 67
“Both articles describe the results of the same Holborn and St Pancras by-election, held on the same day with the same outcome involving Labour's Sagal Abdi-Wali winning and Polanski coming in second.”
The Guardian
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 22% hedged 5 of 23 📰 publisher trust 68
“Both articles describe the same Holborn and St Pancras byelection on the same date, with Labour winning against the Green party candidate Zack Polanski.”
Evening Standard
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 4 📰 publisher trust 67
“Both articles describe Labour's Sagal Abdi-Wali winning the Holborn and St Pancras by-election against Zack Polanski of the Green Party on October 9, 2026.”
The Straits Times
⚖️ Leans right 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 10 📰 publisher trust 59
“Both articles describe Andy Burnham's Labour Party winning the Holborn and St Pancras by-election against the Green Party, with Sagal Abdi-Wali as the Labour candidate.”
Evening Standard
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 25 📰 publisher trust 67
“Both articles describe Sagal Abdi-Wali's Labour byelection victory in Holborn and St Pancras on the same date, with similar details about the candidate's comments and voter support.”
Evening Standard
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 44 📰 publisher trust 67
“Both articles describe Sagal Abdi-Wali's victory in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election on the same date.”
The Hindu
⚖️ Leans right 🔴 12% hedged 2 of 17 📰 publisher trust 96
“Both articles describe the same local election on October 9, 2026, where Sagal Abdi-Wali from Labour won against Zack Polanski from the Green Party in Holborn and St Pancras.”

Publisher

The Guardian · 1570 article(s) · 4 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 4 correction(s)
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Who wrote this

Sammy Gecsoyler
6 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 While the result was broadly as predicted, Labour strategists were buoyed up by the party’s relatively straightforward route to victory in a diverse inner-city area of the sort the Greens have been targeting with recent success.
🔮 Labour’s victory will be a relief for Andy Burnham in his first big electoral test as prime minister, and reinforces polling that shows he has recovered some public support lost by Starmer, his predecessor in Downing Street.
🔮 They’ve said that recollections may vary.”
🔮 But now its benches, usually filled with haughtily dressed men, could soon resemble something more akin to “dress-down Friday”.
Also by Sammy Gecsoyler
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 6 articles by Sammy Gecsoyler →
Peter Walker
9 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 While the result was broadly as predicted, Labour strategists were buoyed up by the party’s relatively straightforward route to victory in a diverse inner-city area of the sort the Greens have been targeting with recent success.
🔮 “Your viewers will know that sometimes you have a football team that’s disappointing,” the Tory leader told GB News.
🔮 Senior Labour party figures said it is very unlikely their party would cooperate with the Greens in the future after they adopted a policy treating Zionism as a form of racism.
🔮 The English and Welsh Greens are facing international ostracism after adopting a policy declaring Zionism as a form of racism, which has drawn dismay from the group representing European Greens.
🔮 The Greens have formally adopted a policy which equates Zionism with racism, a move that will dismay the bulk of the party’s MPs and has alarmed some Jewish members.
🔮 After Trump savaged the three-way plan as “a terrible deal” during a meeting with Andy Burnham at the UN general assembly, the prime minister said he was “confident” the UK would be able to find a solution to revive the idea.
🔮 When he addresses the faithful on the final day of the gathering in Brighton, the party leader will call for a global pause on super-intelligent AI, comparing it to a nuclear arms race that could result in technology that could “destroy us all”. Davey is expected to lay out plans in his speech on Tuesday for a new international AI safety agency – modelled on the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and headquartered in the UK, after numerous warnings from AI researchers that artificial intelligence could wipe out humanity within the decade.
🔮 Davey will set out the fuel duty idea, along with a reduction in the £3 cap on bus fares to £1 and a 10% reduction in rail fares, in his main speech to the event in Brighton on Tuesday.
🔮 But Babarinde, frequently described as a rising star in the party’s ranks, wants his comrades to channel the spirit of the great Liberal thinker William Beveridge, who finessed his radical ideas on social reform in the 141-year-old Whitechapel building.
Also by Peter Walker
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 9 articles by Peter Walker →

Topics

Greens Holborn Labour London St Pancras

Subjects

Greens ORG · 11× Labour ORG · 8× Polanski PERSON · 7× Burnham PERSON · 3× Jewish NORP · 3× Starmer PERSON · 3× Andy Burnham PERSON · 2× London GPE · 2× Palestinian NORP · 2× Zionism NORP · 2×

Narrative

In interviews after the byelection loss, Polanski said he would have voted against the motion had he attended, given that two amendments he supported, both saying any future structure of a Palestinian state should be decided by Palestinians rather than a one-state system being imposed, were voted down.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-09
🔮 While the result was broadly as predicted, Labour strategists were buoyed up by the party’s relatively straightforward route to victory in a diverse inner-city area of the sort the Greens have been targeting with recent success.
2026-10-09 · The Guardian
Labour byelection win shows party starting to win back voters on left · assertive framing

Claims (28 extracted, 3 hedged)

Labour is starting to win back voters on the left who became disillusioned under Keir Starmer’s leadership, the party’s deputy leader has claimed after it saw off Zack Polanski and the Greens to win the Holborn and St Pancras byelection. asserted
it → start → byelection
Labour’s Sagal Abdi-Wali took 45% of a relatively low turnout to keep Starmer’s old north London seat for the party, pushing Polanski, who had stood for the party he leads, into second place on 33%. asserted
he → take → %
While the result was broadly as predicted, Labour strategists were buoyed up by the party’s relatively straightforward route to victory in a diverse inner-city area of the sort the Greens have been targeting with recent success. asserted
Greens → predict → success
The result “sends a clear message to those voters who lost faith in Labour in recent years”, said Lucy Powell, who called last month for the party to unite progressive voters under Andy Burnham if it wants to win the next election. asserted
it → send → election
After the byelection win, she told the Guardian: “We hear you, we’ve listened and we know we needed to be clearer about what we stand for and what type of country we want to see, proudly putting our values centre stage. asserted
we → tell → values
We’re delighted so many of you are backing us once again.” asserted
many → ’re → us
The byelection came after the Green party voted at their conference last weekend to adopt a hugely controversial policy equating Zionism with racism, and saying Israel should be replaced with a single Palestinian state. asserted
Israel → come → state
Polanski has been criticised for showing minimal leadership on the most toxic internal debate the Greens have faced in living memory, with the chair of Jewish Greens saying he should resign. asserted
he → criticise → Greens
The byelection, called after Starmer resigned his Commons seat shortly after he was ousted by Burnham, saw a low turnout of 38.7%, possibly due to the widespread predictions that Labour was set to win, despite a major campaigning effort from the Greens. uncertain
Labour → call → Greens
The turnout also suggests Burnham could still face a battle to engage some voters in urban areas, particularly London, where the Greens took control of three councils in May’s local elections. uncertain
Greens → suggest → elections
In an emotional victory speech, Abdi-Wali, a former child refugee who came to the UK from Somalia in the 1990s, hit out at “those who seek to divide us”, in what appeared to be a response to Reform UK’s Zia Yusuf, who suggested she was not British shortly after the byelection was called. uncertain
byelection → come → Yusuf
“I hope this moment says something about who gets to belong,” she said. asserted
she → hope → something
“For people who look like me, I hope they see themselves reflected in this place and know that their path too belongs here. asserted
path → look → place
Responding to the defeat, Polanski, who leads the Greens in England and Wales, said that while the result showed his party remained a major threat to Labour, many voters had told him they wanted to “give Andy Burnham a chance”. asserted
they → respond → chance
It was the Greens’ second best-ever byelection result, more evidence of the party’s increased prominence and campaigning power since Polanski became leader 13 months ago. asserted
Polanski → increase → prominence
The best came in February, when the Greens took an equally safe Labour seat, Gorton and Denton in Greater Manchester, in a major upset that weakened Starmer’s position. asserted
that → come → position
Around the same time, the Greens peaked at 21% in national polling, above Labour. asserted
Greens → peak → Labour
Polanski’s position has come under scrutiny since the Zionism motion was passed, with critics accusing him of abdicating leadership after he missed the debate to campaign in the byelection, giving no clear message about whether or not he backed it. asserted
he → come → it
In interviews after the byelection loss, Polanski said he would have voted against the motion had he attended, given that two amendments he supported, both saying any future structure of a Palestinian state should be decided by Palestinians rather than a one-state system being imposed, were voted down. asserted
structure → say → Palestinians
On Friday, Vivien Lichtenstein, chair of Jewish Greens, said Polanski, who is Jewish, made a “big mistake” by avoiding the vote. asserted
who → say → vote
Asked if he should continue in his role, she told Times Radio: “No, I think he should resign.” asserted
he → ask → Radio
However, other members of Jewish Greens said Lichtenstein’s comments did not reflect the majority view in the group, and that a vote of no confidence in her had been tabled. asserted
vote → say → her
Speaking shortly before the byelection result was announced, Caroline Lucas, the Greens’ former leader and first MP, said Polanski “should have been there and he should have voted”. asserted
he → speak → ?
Speaking to Newsnight, she said: “I would have hoped that he would have really been a very strong critic of this motion, because the motion was flawed from top to bottom in my view. asserted
motion → speak → view
It’s dangerous, it’s divisive, it tries to have a singular definition of Zionism when we know that there are many.” asserted
we → ’ → Zionism
Asked if Polanski should stand down, Lucas did not definitively say he should remain as leader: “I think let’s just see what happens in the … coming days and weeks.” asserted
what → ask → days
However, they are re- asserted
they → re → ?
elected every two years, meaning Polanski, who took over in September 2025, will have to go before party members again in less than a year. asserted
who → elect → year
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