This, the Treasury has been at pains to tell us, will be a very “low-key” budget.
asserted
Treasury → tell → us
After weeks of speculation from journalists, a flurry of press releases from thinktanks, and a photoshoot with an obligatory red box, the chancellor, John Healey, will announce the details of the Burnham government’s first budget in the Commons today at 12:30pm.
asserted
chancellor → announce → 12:30pm
Healey has been selling this as a series of measures designed to relieve pressure on low- and middle-income households under the mangled tagline of “breathing space for today, fresh hope for the future”.
asserted
Healey → sell → future
Many of the proposals have already been briefed, and their modesty is a sign of the constraints – both real and self-imposed – that his government faces.
asserted
government → brief → that
He has rejected calls to raise capital gains tax or lower the mansion tax and has promised to stick to Labour’s fiscal rules, while the Iran war has increased the cost of borrowing and eroded his spending power.
asserted
war → reject → power
Voters might be hoping for something transformative from a government that risks presiding over the worst parliament for living standards on record.
uncertain
that → hop → record
That’s the impression I got from First Edition readers and people struggling with the cost of living, who I spoke to for this morning’s newsletter about what they’d like to see from today’s budget.
asserted
they → ’ → budget
Israel could be in for weeks of political haggling after exit polls and partial official results showed neither Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition nor the opposition bloc led by former general Gadi Eisenkot had won enough seats to form a government.
uncertain
coalition → show → government
The government’s plan to fund a multibillion-pound nuclear plant at the Sizewell site in Suffolk represents a “terrible deal” for the UK taxpayer over the rest of the century, according to the government’s spending watchdog.
uncertain
plan → fund → watchdog
A multipronged peace deal to reopen the strait of Hormuz within four days of sanctions being lifted and for the Houthis to withdraw substantial forces inside Yemen are at the heart of Gulf states’ plans to avert what they regard as a disastrous renewal of war between Iran and the US.
asserted
they → reopen → Iran
A 78-year-old volunteer has claimed a Reform UK councillor accused her of “facilitating the invasion” and being akin to a Nazi collaborator during the second world war because she has helped asylum seekers learn English.
asserted
seekers → claim → English
The far-right senator Flávio Bolsonaro has reportedly fled Brazil and is on his way to the United States after losing Sunday’s presidential election to the leftwing incumbent, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
uncertain
senator → flee → incumbent
In depth: ‘It’s not going to be ending 40 years of neoliberalism’
asserted
It → go → neoliberalism
There was some detectable grumbling earlier this week over the lack of information about this budget compared with those of Rachel Reeves, and Healey has made much of the “military-style protocols” that have allegedly stopped the Treasury’s secrets from leaking out.
uncertain
that → be → secrets
But it seems more likely that there hasn’t been much to leak.
asserted
it → seem → ?
“It’s going to be a far smaller budget than last year,” Kiran Stacey, the Guardian’s policy editor, told me on Monday.
asserted
Stacey → go → Monday
“It’s not going to be ending 40 years of neoliberalism.”
asserted
It → go → neoliberalism
We’ve already covered some of its content: Patrick Butler and Pippa Crerar wrote yesterday on the government’s plan to abolish the detested rule that has plunged unpaid carers into debt (which the Guardian exposed last year).
asserted
Guardian → cover → which
The government was criticised yesterday for pausing the process of equalising the lower national minimum wage, paid to people under 21, with the more generous “national living wage” for older workers, and has also announced a series of “everyday fixes” to ease the cost of living pressures facing UK households.
asserted
government → criticise → households
That is expected to include support for poorer families with energy bills this winter and to pledge energy market reforms aimed at bringing down bills for all households in the longer term.
asserted
That → expect → term
StepChange, the UK’s largest debt advice charity, pulled together some figures for this morning’s First Edition that show the average household arrears debt for their clients increased from £2,833 to £4,345 between 2022 and 2025.
asserted
debt → pull → 2022
“In the late 2000s, people would primarily come to us with consumer credit debt,” a spokesperson from the charity told me.
asserted
spokesperson → come → me
“But one in two people who come to us now have energy debt.
asserted
who → come → debt
***
What could the government do to address energy bills?
uncertain
government → do → bills
A number of readers told First Edition that energy bills are their major concern.
asserted
bills → tell → Edition
Michael works for a small property company, and rents a three-bedroom bungalow in Winchester where he lives with his three children.
asserted
he → work → children
It’s draughty, and he spends about £165 a month on electricity and gas, which will increase this winter.
asserted
which → ’ → electricity
“I think about the cost of everything now,” he tells me.
asserted
he → think → me
“Will I get enough money to be able to afford this?
asserted
I → get → this
Will I have enough when the rent is due?”
asserted
rent → have → enough
Healey has been considering making the warm homes discount, a £150 annual reduction to electricity bills for people in receipt of benefits, more generous.
asserted
discount → consider → benefits
But Michael doesn’t qualify for this, since he doesn’t receive benefits.
asserted
he → qualify → benefits
After tax, his monthly income is between £2,500 and £3,000, and his rent is £1,800 a month, leaving him at most £300 each week (in a good month) to cover the living costs of four people.
asserted
rent → leave → people
The warm homes discount is targeted at the most needy and does nothing for people further up the income spectrum who are still struggling.
asserted
who → target → spectrum
“Alongside funded measures to provide immediate relief, the government needs a structural plan to reduce energy bills over the medium term,” Mathew Lawrence, the director of Common Wealth, a thinktank that has been cited as an influence on Burnham’s government, tells me.
asserted
that → fund → me
One idea would be an “energy guarantee”, a protected bloc of energy priced at pre-crisis levels (as Kiran reported earlier this month, energy officials are working up more radical changes that could be introduced after the budget).
uncertain
that → price → budget
But Healey has ruled out some of the tax changes that could help fund this type of policy.
uncertain
that → rule → policy
“So decisions on tax have limited the government’s scope for action on bills,” Mathew says.
asserted
Mathew → limit → bills
A persistent causes of stress for Michael is the rising cost of food.
asserted
causes → rise → food
“Once something goes up in price, it never comes down again,” he says.
asserted
he → go → price
…and 40 more, not listed.
The Aporia
