The results for the Alberta referendum send a mixed message.
asserted
results → send → message
The 25 per cent vote for Option B — for a followup referendum to secede — was lower than what I had hoped for, but about what I expected.
asserted
I → secede → what
As I’ve stated repeatedly, I do not support Alberta separation, but I also do not support the status quo.
asserted
I → state → quo
My concern was — and is — that too low a vote for Option B sends a message to the rest of Canada that they don’t have to worry about Alberta; that the separatists are a noisy but politically irrelevant minority, and so the Carney Liberals can go back to business as usual.
asserted
Liberals → send → business
And if the next decade is like the past decade, this number will double again.
asserted
number → double → decade
Which means 50 per cent, and a real problem, both for Canada and for Alberta.
asserted
Which → mean → Alberta
My main takeaway from the referendum is that the same voters who voted 75 per cent to remain in Canada also voted around 50 per cent for the policy and constitutional reforms in questions 1 through 9.
asserted
who → vote → 9
That is, they oppose separation, but they also do not think that Alberta has been treated fairly.
asserted
Alberta → oppose → separation
Does that mean that the separation debate in Alberta is over?
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debate → mean → Alberta
Alberta’s constitutional vulnerability to predatory and damaging federal policies remains.
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vulnerability → remain → policies
But I predict the next chapter will depend more on what happens in Ottawa than what happens in Edmonton.
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what → predict → Edmonton
Prime Minister Mark Carney must turn his talk into actions; he must follow through on his “energy super-power” rhetoric and deliver on the now three new proposed pipelines to the West Coast.
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he → turn → Coast
If Carney does this, separatist sentiment will go into hibernation.
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sentiment → do → hibernation
Test No. 1 for Carney will be to meet his September 2027 deadline for final approval of the Pacific Link pipeline as a project of national interest.
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. → meet → interest
And not coincidentally, meeting this deadline would also almost guarantee that Albertans would give Premier Danielle Smith and the UCP a second majority government in the October election.
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Albertans → meet → election
But what if Carney does not deliver?
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Carney → deliver → ?
What if the U.S.-Iranian conflict ends; the Strait of Hormuz reopens; and the global price of oil goes back to $50 or $60 US/barrel?
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price → end → US
Will climate change replace energy security as Carney’s highest priority?
asserted
change → replace → priority
Will reducing Canada’s CO2 emissions replace expanding Canada’s oil and gas exports to the rest of the world?
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reducing → reduce → world
Perhaps more worrisome, what happens after Carney?
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what → happen → Carney
The Liberal party will be here long after Carney goes out the door.
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Carney → go → door
If all of this goes in the wrong direction, the separation bear will come out of hibernation and roar again.
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bear → go → hibernation
The same Canadian organizations that supported Justin Trudeau’s climate change policies and helped to kill Northern Gateway, Energy East and Keystone are now just as strongly opposed to Carney’s new export pipelines.
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that → support → pipelines
So are their U.S. counterparts who funded much of the anti-pipeline litigation of the past decade.
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who → fund → decade
The recent Cowichan Tribes court decision in British Columbia has undermined traditional property rights not just in Richmond but in the entire province.
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decision → undermine → province
No private-sector companies are going to invest a dollar in British Columbia — much less in new West Coast pipelines — until this legal uncertainly is clearly resolved, and sooner rather than later.
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uncertainly → go → pipelines
The very judges who the Liberals have appointed have ignored the text of Section 35 of the Constitution — “existing Aboriginal and treaty rights” — and given it a retrospective application that has opened the door to hundreds of new lawsuits.
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that → appoint → lawsuits
And when these involve proposed pipelines, they don’t have to win the legal issues.
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they → involve → issues
And this is the likely fate of Pacific Link, unless Carney intervenes and refers the Cowichan Tribes issues directly to the Supreme Court of Canada, along with a request for an expedited ruling.
asserted
Carney → intervene → ruling
While this tactic is not common, it is perfectly legal and has been done before.
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tactic → do → ?
And given the unprecedented media coverage of Carney’s energy super-power initiatives, a majority of the nine Supremes might just give him the ruling that he — and all Canada — needs.
uncertain
he → give → that
This strategy would be strongly supported by Alberta and Saskatchewan.
asserted
strategy → support → Alberta
Premier-elect Lorne Doerkson campaigned on promises to double the provinces’ natural gas production; expedite the building of Pacific Link; and repeal B.C.’s Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples Act.
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Doerkson → campaign → Act
But Carney’s use of an expedited appeal to the Supreme Court would be strongly opposed by all Indigenous groups and would bitterly divide the Liberal party’s traditional base of supporters.
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use → oppose → supporters
Will Carney choose to go down this road?
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Carney → choose → road
Even if he does, will the Liberal party follow him?
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party → do → him
He understands the value of Alberta’s oil and gas to the rest of Canada even if his party doesn’t.
asserted
party → understand → Canada
If Alberta were to leave, international investment would decline, and Canada would have a trade deficit rather our current surplus.
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Canada → leave → deficit
Canada’s GDP would shrink, and the Canadian dollar would weaken even further, making all imports more expensive.
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imports → shrink → ?
Without Alberta, the Canada Pension Plan would have to either raise contributions or reduce benefits.
asserted
Plan → have → benefits
…and 10 more, not listed.
The Aporia
