Collin May: Ottawa is betting on a Europe that no longer exists

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Special to National Post. (2026, October 24). Collin May: Ottawa is betting on a Europe that no longer exists. National Post. https://nationalpost.com/opinion/collin-may-ottawa-is-betting-on-a-europe-that-no-longer-exists

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National Post · collected 2026-10-24 · by Special to National Post analysis

Quick Summary

Collin May argues that recent electoral outcomes in Canada and Europe indicate a shift away from traditional political alliances and toward more nationalist movements. In Quebec, voters elected the separatist Parti Québécois to lead a minority government, promising a sovereignty referendum post-2029. Meanwhile, Alberta is considering steps towards its own separation referendum. In Spain, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has called for early elections due to political setbacks and opposition challenges. Across Europe, right-wing nationalist parties in Italy, France, and Germany are gaining popularity and raising concerns among EU officials about the future stability of the union.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-10-24, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

AI analysis runs on qwen2.5:14b, locally

Story summary

On October 5, Quebec voters returned the separatist Parti Québécois (PQ) to power after more than a decade, with Paul St-Pierre Plamondon leading a minority government that is five seats short of a majority. The PQ has promised to wait until January 2029, when former US President Donald Trump leaves office, before holding a sovereignty referendum. Meanwhile, Alberta voters recently cast ballots on whether to take the first step toward a separation referendum, though this vote does not authorize separation itself.

The election results in Quebec saw the governing Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ) lose every seat it held, and sent 19 Conservatives to the National Assembly for the first time since 1935. These developments raise concerns about unresolved constitutional issues within Canada, as two of its major provinces are considering steps toward separation.

Written for “Ottawa's European Policy Bet” on 2026-10-24, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The model judged this article politically coded and scored it -0.50, but every quote it verified points right, so the score is not published.
Written under an earlier scoring contract, which gave a paragraph rather than checkable quotes. Re-analysing this article replaces it.
Leaning score withheld for article 103828: score contradicts its own evidence · logged 2026-10-24

Story

📰 Ottawa's European Policy Bet
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 8% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Global News
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 16% hedged 5 of 31 📰 publisher trust 63
“Article A discusses a poll suggesting that the Parti Québécois' pledge to hold a sovereignty referendum cost them a majority government, while Article B reports on the actual election results and promises made by the PQ leader. They are related but describe different aspects of the event.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
39
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
8%
3 of 39 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
withheld
no quote in the article backed the model's score
Publisher signals
60/100
National Post's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-10-24 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

National Post · 1110 article(s) · 2 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 2 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Special to National Post
96 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 St-Pierre Plamondon will lead a minority government, five seats short of a majority, and has promised to wait until Donald Trump leaves the White House in January 2029 before holding a sovereignty referendum.
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🔮 Faithfulness means nurses and doctors in these hospitals will not perform abortions.
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Also by Special to National Post
Interior design: Curating curves
2026-10-23 · National Post
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 96 articles by Special to National Post →

Topics

Canada Italy Parliament Quebec Spain

Subjects

Carney PERSON · 4× Quebec GPE · 4× Sánchez PERSON · 3× Canada GPE · 2× Italy GPE · 2× Parliament ORG · 2× Spain GPE · 2× the European Union ORG · 2× Parti Québécois ORG · 1× Paul St-Pierre Plamondon PERSON · 1×

Narrative

That one of Canada’s major provinces has just formed a separatist government, while another considers taking the first step toward separation, should cause all Canadians to wonder whether we have some serious unresolved constitutional issues.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-24
🔮 St-Pierre Plamondon will lead a minority government, five seats short of a majority, and has promised to wait until Donald Trump leaves the White House in January 2029 before holding a sovereignty referendum.
2026-10-24 · National Post
Collin May: Ottawa is betting on a Europe that no longer exists · assertive framing

Claims (39 extracted, 3 hedged)

On Oct. 5, Quebec voters returned the separatist Parti Québécois to power after more than a decade in the wilderness. asserted
voters → return → wilderness
Its leader, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, has promised a third referendum on sovereignty during his first mandate. asserted
leader → promise → mandate
On Monday, Albertans voted on whether to take the first step toward a referendum on separation. asserted
Albertans → vote → separation
St-Pierre Plamondon will lead a minority government, five seats short of a majority, and has promised to wait until Donald Trump leaves the White House in January 2029 before holding a sovereignty referendum. asserted
Trump → lead → referendum
Quebec voters also wiped out the governing Coalition Avenir Quebec, which lost every seat it held, and sent 19 Conservatives to the National Assembly, the first elected to the Quebec legislature since 1935. asserted
it → wipe → 1935
The Alberta vote would not itself authorize separation, but it could set in motion the legal process toward a second, binding referendum. uncertain
it → authorize → referendum
That one of Canada’s major provinces has just formed a separatist government, while another considers taking the first step toward separation, should cause all Canadians to wonder whether we have some serious unresolved constitutional issues. asserted
we → form → issues
Rather than brandishing our elbows at the American president and daydreaming about a yet-to-be-defined association with Europe, Canada may want to put its own house in order. uncertain
Canada → brandish → order
In Spain, Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has dissolved the Spanish Parliament, triggering early elections. asserted
Sánchez → dissolve → elections
The vote, to be held on Nov. 29, follows a series of blunders and missteps by the leftist leader. asserted
vote → hold → leader
With his wife facing trial on corruption charges and his government unable to deal with the influx of Moroccan migrants into Ceuta earlier this summer, Sánchez was already under pressure. asserted
Sánchez → face → pressure
The rejection of his housing proposals by Parliament was the final straw, forcing him to call an early election. asserted
rejection → force → election
The outlook for Sánchez going into this election is not bright. asserted
outlook → go → election
Polls consistently show that his socialist government is in trouble as both the centre-right People’s Party and the right-wing Vox surge. asserted
Party → show → trouble
Unfortunately for Sánchez and his left-leaning allies, Spain is not the only country ditching the left for a more nationalist right. asserted
Spain → lean → right
In Italy, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and her right-wing government remain at the top of the opinion polls as she lauds Italy’s historic heritage of Christianity, Roman law and Greek rationality. asserted
she → remain → Christianity
In France, “far-right” presidential candidate Marine Le Pen leads polling in both rounds for the French presidential election next year. asserted
Pen → lead → election
And in Germany, the Alternative für Deutschland, an even further-right party, is going from success to success in state elections while challenging the country’s traditional centrist parties. asserted
Deutschland → go → parties
That all of these parties entertain, to some extent, Eurosceptic views is making Brussels very uneasy. asserted
Brussels → entertain → views
When it comes to Europe, the European Union of Carney’s dreams is on the ropes, and his preferred partners are going down in rapid succession. asserted
partners → come → succession
However, it’s doubtful that any of this will change Carney’s mind as he pursues his idealized vision of Europe. asserted
he → ’ → Europe
Carney has long mused about a rupture with the United States, well before his celebrated Davos speech earlier this year. asserted
Carney → muse → speech
In part, this is likely because he seems to favour government control of capital spending rather than allowing private interests to manage their own investments. asserted
interests → seem → investments
In this, he, no doubt, believes himself to be in step with the European Union. asserted
himself → believe → Union
If it ever did exist, it has long since passed, with the Eurosceptic right coming to dominate the continent. asserted
right → exist → continent
The days of bankers and bureaucrats managing a pacified population are coming to an end. asserted
bankers → manage → end
Looking south, we come across a similar phenomenon in Latin America. asserted
we → look → America
The day before the Quebec vote, Brazil held its national elections, including a presidential election in which right-wing candidate Flávio Bolsonaro outpaced leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. asserted
Bolsonaro → hold → Silva
While Bolsonaro did not secure the majority needed to win outright in the first round, he is the front-runner in the runoff against Lula on Oct. 25. asserted
he → secure → Oct.
Bolsonaro’s upset follows a series of Latin American elections that have seen the region shift from left-wing domination to predominantly right-wing governments. asserted
region → follow → governments
Just as important, several of these governments are cozying up to the U.S., creating a de facto hemispheric alliance. asserted
several → cozye → alliance
While Carney looks across the Atlantic, much of the hemisphere is moving in precisely the opposite direction. asserted
much → look → direction
Unlike many of the Western Hemisphere’s nations, Canada has decided to poke the American hegemon in the eye, fumble a trade deal negotiation and sidle up to an imaginary Europe. asserted
Canada → decide → Europe
As Canada has its hissy fit, even Greenland has managed to strike a security deal with Washington. asserted
Greenland → have → Washington
Trump’s updated version of the Monroe Doctrine may be finding more willing partners than Ottawa cares to admit. uncertain
Ottawa → update → partners
Sadly, for Canada, as we mindlessly follow Carney off the international cliff like lemmings, we refuse to address the constitutional dysfunction in our own country that fuels not one but two separatist movements. asserted
that → follow → movements
Perhaps the best we can say about it all is that Quebec’s premier-designate has promised to wait out Donald Trump. asserted
designate → say → Trump
That buys Ottawa at least two years to take the Constitution seriously. asserted
That → buy → Constitution
Judging by its priorities, it will spend them courting Brussels. asserted
it → judge → Brussels
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