As Conservative MPs gather for their weekly caucus meetings, some are attempting to read the tea leaves from last week’s Alberta referenda and British Columbia’s big Conservative win.
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some → gather → referenda
Saturday, David Eby’s early election gamble — two years into his NDP government’s mandate — failed spectacularly.
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gamble → fail → mandate
B.C. interim Conservative leader Lorne Doerkson won a majority after running a disciplined campaign and uniting his party — and the conservative movement — around his leadership.
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Doerkson → win → leadership
On X, federal B.C. Conservative MP Aaron Gunn posted that Doerkson and his team had articulated a compelling vision for the province “and did so WITHOUT abandoning key conservative priorities or principles, including DRIPA (the Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples Act), SOGI (Sexual Orientation and Gender Identity) and ending safe supply.
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Doerkson → post → supply
“Those trying to use this victory to argue the federal Conservative Party needs to abandon its conservative principles in order to win an election are doing so either disingenuously or ignorantly,” he wrote.
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he → try → election
Despite his rodeo announcer background, Doerkson did not create a stampede to the polls.
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Doerkson → create → polls
Only 48 per cent of the B.C. electorate showed up to vote.
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cent → show → electorate
The Conservatives obtained fewer votes than they did in 2024 — 862,688 to 911,153.
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they → obtain → 2024
What led to the party’s large majority is that 273,768 NDP voters from 2024 failed to show up for their party.
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voters → lead → party
Some likely voted Green, others Conservative, but many simply stayed home.
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many → vote → Green
And it isn’t because Doerkson and his team flexed on controversial issues, like SOGI — it’s precisely because they didn’t.
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they → flex → SOGI
Since Prime Minister Mark Carney walked away from “a bad deal” with the U.S. in August, his popularity has reached new heights.
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popularity → walk → heights
This makes the
Since Prime Minister Mark Carney walked away from “a bad deal” with the U.S. in August, his popularity has reached new heights.
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popularity → make → heights
This makes the
What the B.C. Conservatives presented, through careful messaging, was a Conservative leader that British Columbians did not need to fear.
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Columbians → make → that
Doerkson seemed like a nice positive guy, talking about running a competent government and lowering taxes.
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Doerkson → seem → taxes
With not much of a record to defend, his campaign successfully stripped centrists and progressive voters of a reason to mobilize.
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campaign → defend → reason
And the NDP failed to make a compelling case otherwise.
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NDP → fail → case
Depressing an opponent’s turnout can be as important as turning out your own voters.
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turnout → depress → voters
While the NDP made a series of own goals, from calling an election they were ill-equipped to fight, to having no clear message, to Eby’s subsidized child-care revelation, the Conservatives amplified the setbacks.
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Conservatives → make → setbacks
NDP voters were left unmotivated.
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voters → leave → ?
Gunn may believe that DRIPA and SOGI policies led British Columbia to turn blue and that the same strategy will pay off for Poilievre.
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strategy → believe → Poilievre
But not only does the data suggest that is not true — Research Co.’s exit poll found fewer than 30 per cent of respondents said those were vote drivers — Poilievre is no Doerkson.
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Poilievre → suggest → respondents
Voters have already made up their minds about Poilievre, and poll after poll suggests they don’t like him.
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they → make → him
Recent figures from Abacus Data suggest 45 per cent of the country does not like him; Liaison suggests the number is 55 per cent; an Ekos survey this month pegs it at 70 per cent.
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survey → suggest → cent
This isn’t because voters can’t see beyond admiration for Prime Minister Mark Carney.
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voters → see → Carney
According to Liaison, NDP Leader Avi Lewis’s negatives are dropping.
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negatives → accord → Liaison
But Lewis is just becoming known; Poilievre is a known quantity.
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Poilievre → become → ?
During the 2025 federal election, a major vote driver was U.S. President Donald Trump and his 51st state threats, but dislike for Poilievre also sent voters to the Liberal camp.
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dislike → send → camp
Trump may not be there to help the Grits during the next election, but it’s difficult to see how Poilievre can help Conservatives.
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Poilievre → help → Conservatives
He remains a drag on his party, notably in vote-rich Ontario.
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He → remain → Ontario
Funnily enough, Carney and Poilievre might both be hoping the Conservatives win the upcoming byelection in Brantford—Brant South, otherwise a potential leadership review could throw both their plans out the window.
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review → hop → window
The Alberta result offers a different but related lesson.
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result → offer → lesson
With almost all votes counted, referendum results show all of her proposed constitutional
Premier Danielle Smith must not only contend with the fallout of a plebiscite she thought she’d easily win that instead leaves her with no mandate to seek financial compensation to opt out of federal programs, or to fight for the supremacy of provincial laws over federal laws.
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that → count → laws
She must also face the challenge of trying to steer her party to where the voters are, rather than where her party’s base is.
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base → face → party
Do federal Conservatives also want their party driven by the voices of western separatists, anti-vaxxers, and those focused on gender identity messages?
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party → want → messages
Hanging on to the party’s most extreme members might keep the floor from dropping in public opinion polls, but increasingly MPs are aware it comes at a long-term cost.
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it → hang → cost
Those voices are defining the party’s agenda to one that a majority of swing voters cannot support — voters that the Conservatives need without a stronger NDP splitting the Liberals’ base of support.
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NDP → define → support
The Aporia
