Climate experts predict that a record-strong El Niño event will influence global weather patterns this fall and winter, potentially leading to warmer winters in northern U.S., wetter conditions in the south, increased tornado activity, and fewer Atlantic hurricanes. Pacific sea surface temperatures are expected to exceed average levels by at least two degrees Celsius, causing significant evaporation that may lead to more rainfall in some regions while exacerbating droughts in others. Countries like Australia, Indonesia, and parts of Southern Africa face a higher risk of drier conditions, whereas South American nations might experience heavier precipitation.
Written by the local model on 2026-09-12,
using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the
same event (that is the story summary below).
With fall slowly creeping up, experts are warning of a record strong El Niño, colloquially dubbed “super El Niño.”
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experts → creep → Niño
The weather event is expected to impact global temperatures and rainfall, and could increase the risk of extreme weather events in some parts of the world.
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event → expect → world
The corresponding weather events triggered by the warmer ocean can have a varied and strong impact around the globe.
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events → correspond → globe
With El Niño, forecasters are expecting to see stormier weather in some parts of the world and drought conditions in others.
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forecasters → expect → others
“Pacific sea surface temperatures are going to vary at least two degrees from the average.
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temperatures → go → average
That means the Pacific waters are going to be warmer than normal, and we can expect a lot of evaporation,” says Risper Nyairo, assistant professor in the department of environmental studies at Davidson College.
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Nyairo → mean → College
That evaporation means more moisture in the sky in some areas which can lead to more rain.
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which → mean → rain
Meanwhile evaporation over dry land can increase drought.
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evaporation → increase → drought
El Niño typically peaks in the last few months of the year, but will remain active in the beginning of 2027.
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Niño → peak → 2027
Forecasts are predicting that this year’s El Niño will be the strongest in recorded history.
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Niño → predict → history
“The ocean conditions in the tropical Pacific are pushing towards record warmth,” says Marty Ralph, director of the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, and research meteorologist at UC San Diego Scripps Institution of Oceanography.
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Ralph → push → Oceanography
The warmer oceans, coupled with already record warming due to climate change, means that 2027 could shape up to be the warmest year on record.
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2027 → couple → record
The World Meteorological Organization has also warned that a strong El Niño could raise the risk of extreme weather events going into next year.
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Niño → warn → year
Australia, Indonesia, and parts of Southern Africa, including Zambia and Zimbabwe, are likely to see drier than average conditions.
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Australia → include → conditions
Parts of South America, including Ecuador, Peru, and Uruguay, and East African countries will experience more rainfall than usual.
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Parts → include → rainfall
What does El Niño mean for fall and winter weather in the U.S.?
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Niño → mean → U.S.
U.S. residents don’t have to sound the alarm over El Niño, says Patrick Rafter, assistant professor in the College of Marine Science at USF.
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Rafter → have → USF
“For the most part, I don't see a monster El Niño event as anything the continental U.S. has to be overly concerned with.”
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U.S. → see → anything
Historically, El Niño often brings a warmer than usual winter to the northern U.S., and a wetter, cooler winter in the south, with a higher likelihood for rain and snow.
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Niño → bring → rain
It can also increase the likelihood of tornadoes in areas receiving wetter weather.
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It → increase → weather
“We will likely see less severe or less frequent hurricanes, but probably more severe tornadoes with severe storms,” says Nyairo.
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Nyairo → see → storms
El Niño years are typically associated with quieter hurricane years off the Atlantic.
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years → associate → Atlantic
This year, the Atlantic hurricane season reached its peak without a single storm.
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season → reach → storm
The Pacific, however, has seen an unusually active hurricane season.
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Pacific → see → season
Along the west coast, El Niño could bring bigger waves and higher sea levels.
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Niño → bring → waves
The weather event also creates a higher risk of wildfires in areas with dry conditions.
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event → create → conditions
The predictions, experts note, are just that.
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experts → note → ?
“There tend to be patterns that generally occur, but they aren't always guaranteed outcomes,” says Ralph.
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Ralph → tend → ?
The Indian Ocean Dipole, which impacts sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation, a tropical atmospheric phenomenon that influences rainfall, are among some of the other modes of climate variability that can also impact weather patterns alongside El Niño.
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that → impact → Niño
Atmospheric rivers, narrow regions of the atmosphere that can carry moisture thousands of miles, can also disrupt El Niño conditions—particularl in California, where they often occur.
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they → carry → California
“We've seen since 2000 roughly that some of the El Niño years when we expect it to be relatively dry down in SoCal, it's ended up being unusually wet,” says Ralph.
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Ralph → see → SoCal
Regardless, a strong El Niño has the potential to have long lasting impacts for communities around the world.
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Niño → have → world
“The increased rainfall or intense drought cascades into other impacts on society,” says Nyairo.
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Nyairo → cascade → society
“Lives may be lost in unprepared societies.
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Lives → lose → societies
