This article was published in partnership with Agência Pública, Brazil’s largest nonprofit newsroom.
asserted
article → publish → Pública
The Kennedy scion married singer Giulia Be, a pop star born into a Brazilian right-wing clan, the Marinho family, who are close allies of the disgraced former President Jair Bolsonaro.
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who → marry → Bolsonaro
The nuptials took place at the Our Lady of Mount Carmel Church in historic downtown Rio, which once served the Portuguese royalty that colonized Brazil for more than 300 years.
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that → take → years
A week later, supporters of then-presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro carried an inflatable missile with the words “Trump nuke Brazil” in English at a rally in the city of São Paulo.
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Trump → carry → Paulo
The symbolic image—apparently welcoming a US intervention in the country—may have shocked supporters of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva or Brazilians who value the country’s sovereignty.
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who → welcome → sovereignty
But family ties between right-wing clans, inflatable missiles, and requests for American military action against a perceived communist threat only begin to scratch the surface of the far-right’s increasing strength in Brazilian politics and its yearning for a closer connection with the Trump administration.
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ties → perceive → administration
After Sunday’s election results in a neck-and-neck race, their wishes will have to be deferred.
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wishes → have → race
In a historic comeback, incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva narrowly fended off his opponent’s bid to restore a far-right government to Latin America’s largest economy that would have further painted the map of Trump’s geopolitical aspirations for “American preeminence” in the region orange.
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that → fend → region
With more than 99 percent of ballots counted, Lula received 64 million votes, winning 51,77 percent of votes to Bolsonaro’s 48.23 percent.
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Lula → count → percent
This is the first time a candidate has won the presidential election after coming behind in the first round.
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candidate → win → round
Flávio Bolsonaro has yet to concede.
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Bolsonaro → have → ?
Brazil has long been a model of efficient vote tallying, but this year, the announcement of the results came only after a two-hour extension of the voting deadline.
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announcement → come → deadline
Brazil Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin extended voting hours at the last minute in response to electoral court complaints from both campaigns.
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Zanin → extend → campaigns
Incumbent president Lula pointed to reports of hampered public transportation services preventing people from getting to the polling stations in several states, while Flávio claimed inclement weather had impacted voters in places where he performed well in the first round.
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he → point → round
The order was issued after some stations had already closed, causing confusion.
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stations → issue → confusion
Lula’s reelection for a fourth term in a consequential dispute where the future of the Amazon was at stake throws cold water on the MAGA world’s hopes of a win for the oldest son of Jair Bolsonaro—convicted of attempting a coup d’état following his failed re-election bid in 2022 and serving a 27-year sentence under house arrest.
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future → throw → arrest
“A turn to the right for Brazil,” said Jana Nelson, former deputy assistant secretary of defense for western affairs “would fulfill this publicly-stated goal of the Trump administration to have more right-wing leaders” in the hemisphere.
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Nelson → say → hemisphere
Under Lula, the relationship between Brazil and the United States has, at times, been marked by tension.
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relationship → mark → tension
The Trump administration imposed 50 percent tariffs on Brazilian goods and sanctions on judicial authorities as retribution for the alleged political “persecution” of Jair Bolsonaro.
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administration → impose → Bolsonaro
It also revoked the visa of Brazil’s ambassador to the United States, Maria Luiza Ribeiro Viotti, in retaliation for an alleged delay on the Brazilian government’s side to formally approve the administration’s new pick for the role.
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It → revoke → role
Amidst warnings of undue US interference in the Brazilian elections and a worsening strain on the nations’ diplomatic ties, Lula raised the banner of protecting the country’s national interests, declaring that Brazil doesn’t “fit into anyone’s backyard” and that its destiny was for the Brazilian people to decide.
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people → worsen → backyard
As a candidate, Flávio hinted at a rapprochement with Washington.
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Flávio → hint → Washington
“Brazil will be the battleground where the future of the hemisphere will be fought,” he announced at CPAC in late March 2026. “Because Brazil is America’s solution to break [its] independence from China for critical minerals.”
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Brazil → fight → minerals
Brazil has the world’s second-largest rare earth reserves of minerals—essential for everything from electronics to defense technology to clean energy transition—second only to China, which happens to be Brazil’s main trading partner.
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which → have → China
Flávio’s gesture to America prompted President Lula to suggest his opponent would hand over Brazil’s natural resources to the United States, accusing the Bolsonaro family of being “subordinate to American interests.”
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opponent → prompt → interests
Not long after Flávio’s CPAC appearance, André Marinho, the brother of Conor Kennedy’s bride, traveled to the United States.
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Marinho → travel → States
A businessman and one-time candidate for governor of Rio de Janeiro, he was invited by Rockbridge—a far-right network of donors created by Vice President JD Vance that at one point had plans to set up operations in Brazil—and had a meeting with Vance, reportedly arranged by RFK Jr.
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that → invite → Jr.
At the time, Marinho told Brazilian media that he and the vice president had discussed the expansion of organized crime in Rio de Janeiro and the connections of criminal groups with international networks.
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he → tell → networks
Reporting by Brazilian journalist Guilherme Amado revealed an English-language memo Marinho had authored outlining the potential advantages of a Flávio Bolsonaro administration for Trump’s government and family businesses.
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Marinho → reveal → government
The 22-page strategic proposal titled “Prosperity Partnership” provided a roadmap for the US exploration of rare earths under Brazil’s new far-right government.
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proposal → title → government
The plan, drafted about two weeks before Marinho traveled to meet with Vance, described Brazil as the “solution” for the issue of critical minerals, the same language Flávio then used in the message he delivered at CPAC.
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he → draft → CPAC
According to the “Prosperity Partnership,” a Bolsonaro government would “position Brazil as the main supplier and processing hub for critical minerals aligned with the West in the Western Hemisphere.”
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government → accord → Hemisphere
It also argued that this plan would free the country from being “dependent” on Chinese processing chains and “align with the United States in building a parallel supply system.”
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plan → argue → system
The document further mentioned “accelerating the regulatory process.”
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document → mention → process
Flávio’s government platform adopts a similar tone, promising “agile and technical licensing” for mineral exploration.
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platform → adopt → exploration
(Marinho denied that the document, bearing the cover “Flávio Bolsonaro | 2026 Campaign,” had any connection to the Bolsonarista campaign.)
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document → deny → campaign
Reached by Agência Pública, Marinho said that the “matter is rehashed, harmless, and outdated, precisely because there are no practical consequences in reality.”
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matter → reach → reality
He subsequently sent a statement asserting: “The study was prepared exclusively on personal initiative, as a hypothetical scenario analysis exercise.
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study → send → exercise
It was not an official proposal nor was it produced at the request of any campaign, authority, or organization.”
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it → produce → campaign
Marinho further stated that he didn’t send the material to “Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign, to US authorities, or organizations, nor was it the subject of any meeting or negotiation.”
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it → state → meeting
…and 49 more, not listed.
The Aporia
