After the piece below had been drafted, news came in of a third development that was perhaps even more consequential than the two described, the victory of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, or Lula, in the second round of the Brazilian presidential election.
asserted
that → draft → election
His defeat of the right-wing populist Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, was unexpected after a first round in which the latter ended up with the largest plurality of votes.
asserted
latter → end → votes
Lula’s victory broke a string of seven consecutive right-wing victories in Latin American presidential elections.
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victory → break → elections
Flávio Bolsonaro has called for the election to be annulled, and it is at this point uncertain what his followers will do in reaction to Lula’s victory.
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followers → call → victory
Nonetheless, given Brazil’s size and importance on the world stage, this is a stunning and hopeful development that may signal, together with the developments in Venezuela and Serbia and the upcoming U.S. midterm elections, a major reversal of the wave of authoritarian-populist victories around the world.
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that → give → world
Sunday October 25 saw two very hopeful events from different parts of the world.
asserted
Sunday → see → world
They give us some optimism that democratic backsliding is not inevitable, and that it is possible to fight back against the rising tide of authoritarianism.
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it → give → authoritarianism
She sought to run against Nicolás Maduro during the July 2024 presidential election, and attracted huge enthusiastic crowds all over Venezuela during her primary campaign.
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She → seek → campaign
Because of the threat she posed, she was disqualified by the regime; her stand-in, Edmundo Gonzalez, went on to win the election by a huge margin.
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in → pose → margin
We know this because the democratic opposition kept voter records from each polling place in the country, and published them before the regime could declare its own falsified results naming Maduro the winner.
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regime → know → Maduro
Machado had to then go into exile to accept her Nobel Peace Prize, and has been living out of the country until this past weekend.
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Machado → have → weekend
Her return was marked by the same rapturous crowds cheering her that had come out during her election campaign two and a half years earlier.
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that → mark → campaign
The current situation in Venezuela following the Trump administration’s arrest of Maduro in early January is completely unsustainable and unjust.
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situation → follow → January
Trump made a deal with Delcy Rodríguez Maduro’s, vice president and member of his inner circle, to stabilize the country as the United States sought to take control of the country’s oil assets.
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States → make → assets
Venezuela since then has been run by the same authoritarian clique that existed previously, with a pliable Rodríguez substituting for a resistant Maduro.
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Rodríguez → run → Maduro
Trump made no pretense that any of this was being done for the benefit of the Venezuelan people, bragging instead that he had put the United States in control of the country’s oil.
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he → make → oil
As he told the UN General Assembly in September, “to the victors go the spoils.”
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spoils → tell → victors
Worse than that, there has been no transparency regarding where any of the oil revenues were going, or even how large they were.
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they → regard → revenues
The administration revealed that it was working with Alejandro Betancourt, a businessman notorious all over Venezuela for his corruption.
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it → reveal → corruption
In the meantime, Trump sidelined Machado, claiming that “she doesn’t have respect within the country.”
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she → sideline → country
The State Department claimed that there would eventually be democratic elections, but without specifying a timetable, and held talks with various opposition groups that excluded Machado.
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that → claim → Machado
Neither the regime nor the United States permitted her to go back to her country, and at the present moment we don’t know how she managed to return.
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she → permit → moment
Her return puts both the Rodríguez regime and the Trump administration in a difficult position.
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return → put → position
Much as they might like to, neither can afford to arrest or otherwise silence the most popular politician in the country, certainly not in the face of the rapturous crowds greeting her.
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neither → like → her
Machado has spent the time since January trying to placate Trump, giving him her Nobel Prize and refraining from public criticism of the United States.
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Machado → spend → States
But this kind of appeasement has never worked with this president, who has no interest in Venezuelan democracy.
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who → work → democracy
There is growing anger at the United States among ordinary Venezuelans, who naturally would like to know where money from their oil patrimony is going.
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money → be → patrimony
Delcy could buy temporary peace, but as time goes on, the corrupt deal she struck with Trump is going to be a huge liability.
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she → buy → Trump
Machado needs to get behind what would amount to an anti-corruption protest.
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what → need → protest
It is likely that anti-American (and anti-Delcy) protests will gain momentum, and it is only at that moment that people in Washington may realize that a legitimate election is the only route to long-term stability.
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election → gain → stability
Trump thinks that he is in control of the situation, but he is not; only the Venezuelan people have the right and ultimately the power to create a legitimate government.
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people → think → government
The second rather miraculous event occurring Sunday was the victory of the Student List over the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) in Serbia’s parliamentary election, and strongman Alexander Vučić’s concession.
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event → occur → election
Most informed observers fervently wished for Vučić’s defeat, but believed that in the end he and his party had enough levers to intimidate voters and manipulate the process.
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he → wish → process
Vučić had been in power in one capacity or another—he recently resigned as president so he could become prime minister under an SNS-led government—such that many young Serbs had known no other leader than him.
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Serbs → resign → him
The roots of the Student List victory lay in the student movement that emerged following the lethal collapse of the roof of a train station in the city of Novi Sad in November 2024.
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that → lie → November
The station, a Chinese project, was riddled with corruption linked to the regime, and students across the country started mobilizing in protest.
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students → riddle → protest
There had been many protest movements previously in Serbia, including the one that brought down Slobodan Milošević back in October 2000.
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that → include → October
This movement, however, was deliberately organized in a way that minimized the measures that the regime could take against it.
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regime → organize → it
It had no leaders and no evident hierarchy.
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It → have → leaders
There were no immediate political demands except for an end to corruption; the movement was able to organize gigantic protests in Belgrade and other Serbian cities on this basis.
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movement → be → basis
…and 25 more, not listed.
The Aporia
