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"Brazil will not accept being anyone's backyard," Brazil's left-wing President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva declared in his election victory speech, a message squarely aimed at Washington.
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President → accept → Washington
Domestic elections are rarely won on foreign policy, and this one was no different.
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one → win → policy
But Lula's defiance against what he has described as US interference in Brazilian affairs evoked a patriotic spirit that proved an effective campaigning tool.
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that → describe → tool
It also chimed with his wider brand of politics as a former union leader: standing up to powerful figures.
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It → chime → figures
Paradoxically, it seems to have earned him President Donald Trump's respect.
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it → seem → respect
"I like Lula, we get along well," Trump said, responding to the result.
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Trump → like → result
"I didn't take sides," he added, before calling the election "terrible" and "rigged".
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he → take → election
If that sounds muddled, it is because the relationship between the two men is not straightforward.
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relationship → sound → men
Trump did not explicitly endorse Lula's rival Flávio Bolsonaro, who has refused to recognise the result despite the Supreme Electoral Court finding no evidence of irregularities and his own party recognising the result.
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party → endorse → result
When I spoke to Lula at his residence about a year ago, relations had hit rock bottom.
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relations → speak → bottom
He told me he had "no relationship" with Trump, that they had never spoken, and that he had no intention of picking up the phone.
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he → tell → phone
Trump had recently imposed punitive tariffs on Brazil, largely as a political response to Jair Bolsonaro's coup trial, which the US president called a "witch-hunt".
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president → impose → which
Rather than tiptoeing around Trump, as some US allies did, Lula fought back – and it paid off.
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it → tiptoe → Trump
He made fiery speeches invoking Brazilian sovereignty, attacked US interference in the judicial process, and took to wearing a blue cap reading "Brazil belongs to Brazilians".
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Brazil → make → Brazilians
His approval ratings jumped.
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ratings → jump → ?
He accused the Bolsonaro family, who had lobbied for the tariffs, of being unpatriotic – a blow to a political right that so often claims patriotism as its terrain.
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that → accuse → terrain
Even some in the agricultural lobby, typically strong Bolsonaro supporters but reliant on US trade, thought Lula had a point.
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Lula → think → point
The US eventually backed down and reduced the tariffs, although they have since risen again.
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they → back → tariffs
Relations then improved.
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Relations → improve → ?
The two men spoke at the United Nations and later met in the Oval Office, where Trump called the talks "very good" and Lula said he left "very satisfied".
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he → speak → talks
Another indication, perhaps, that Trump likes a strongman.
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Trump → like → strongman
Latin America has swung to the right, with Ecuador, Chile, Colombia, Argentina and Peru all electing presidents closely aligned with the Trump administration.
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Ecuador → swing → administration
Trump has sought to use these allies to establish US dominance in the Western Hemisphere, a strategy he has dubbed the "Donroe Doctrine".
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he → seek → strategy
Christopher Sabatini, senior fellow for Latin America at Chatham House, notes that Trump thought Brazil would be the "10th and biggest prize" after Flávio Bolsonaro won the first round.
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Bolsonaro → note → round
Brazil is Latin America's largest economy, and the younger Bolsonaro was expected to join Trump's "Shield of Americas" coalition against narco-trafficking.
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Bolsonaro → expect → trafficking
Brazil also holds the world's second-largest reserves of rare earth minerals after China, and the US had been eyeing preferential access.
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US → hold → access
The relationship has thawed, but with four more years ahead for Lula, several issues could reignite tensions.
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issues → thaw → tensions
Brazil accused the US earlier this year of trying to cast doubt on its electoral system and denied visas to two state department officials planning to visit.
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Brazil → accuse → officials
The US called this "baseless" and revoked the Brazilian ambassador's visa in response.
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US → call → response
If Trump keeps calling this result "rigged", further diplomatic fallout is likely.
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fallout → keep → result
Lula has also vehemently opposed US military action in the region, from the seizure of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela to the bombing of alleged drug-trafficking vessels.
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Lula → oppose → vessels
He lambasted Washington for designating Brazil's two major gangs as terrorist organisations after lobbying from Flávio Bolsonaro, and warned of attacks on Brazilian sovereignty.
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He → lambast → sovereignty
It is a sensitive subject for a political left that remembers the region's brutal 20th Century dictatorships, many backed by the CIA in the name of stopping communism.
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many → remember → communism
Lula's campaign accused Meta of favouring Flávio Bolsonaro.
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campaign → accuse → Bolsonaro
Meta denied this but admitted moderation issues and technical errors had wrongly removed some posts or limited their reach.
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issues → deny → reach
Lula's supporters responded by sharing his messages through a 10-million-strong WhatsApp group to bypass the algorithms.
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supporters → respond → algorithms
Separately, the Trump administration is unhappy with Pix, Brazil's instant payment system, which has boosted the economy, but which the US sees as taking business from Visa and Mastercard.
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US → boost → Visa
The relationship has exposed political divisions.
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relationship → expose → divisions
In the campaign, Bolsonaro supporters waved US flags at their rallies and, in one case, an inflatable saying "Trump Nuke Brazil", while Lula and his supporters accused Flávio Bolsonaro of protecting US interests over Brazil's.
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Lula → wave → Brazil
Still, tensions can be overstated.
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tensions → overstate → ?
…and 2 more, not listed.
The Aporia
