WASHINGTON, D.C. — “Canada treats us very badly.”
asserted
Canada → treat → us
“They are one of the worst countries in the world to deal with.”
asserted
They → deal → world
A new Pew Research Center survey of American views of G20 countries had Canada topping the list alongside Australia.
asserted
Canada → have → Australia
But the figures still reflect a decline: Americans’ average rating of Canada on a “feeling thermometer” ranging from zero to 100 fell from 71 in 2018 to 67 in 2026.
asserted
rating → reflect → 2026
In a word: Republicans.
Since 2018, the share of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents with warm views of Canada fell from 59 to 50 per cent.
asserted
share → lean → cent
Older Republicans were largely responsible for the decline, as those aged 50-plus saw their warm views drop from 61 to 47 per cent, while younger Republicans’ views had not significantly changed.
asserted
views → age → cent
American Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, meanwhile, rated Canada 19 points higher than their Republican counterparts — one of the largest partisan gaps in the survey.
asserted
Democrats → lean → survey
So is it fair to say that Canada is becoming a partisan issue in the United States?
asserted
Canada → say → States
“Yes,” said Laura Silver, associate director at Pew and an expert in international survey research.
asserted
Silver → say → research
“We did not see large partisan gaps when it came to views of Canada or perceptions of trade with Canada prior to recent years.
asserted
it → see → years
But at this point, we’ve seen shifting views among Republicans, and as of now … the gap between partisans’ views of Canada is among the largest of any of the countries that we asked about.”
asserted
we → see → that
But does that widening divide mean Canada is increasingly being seen as aligned with the Democrats?
asserted
Canada → widen → Democrats
The Trump administration has portrayed some Canadian activities in explicitly partisan terms.
asserted
administration → portray → terms
This week, the U.S. Embassy in Ottawa released a “fact sheet” alleging potential election interference, highlighting Canadian officials’ meetings with Democrats and efforts to put economic pressure on Republican states.
asserted
Embassy → release → states
And last month, Peter Navarro, an adviser to President Donald Trump, warned Canadians that “if you interfere in our elections in Maine or Michigan you will pay even more dearly.”
asserted
you → warn → Maine
But not everyone thinks Americans increasingly see Canada as being aligned with the Democrats.
asserted
Americans → think → Democrats
Chris Kirkey, director of the Center for the Study of Canada and Institute on Quebec Studies at State University of New York at Plattsburgh, sees similarities between some Canadian policies and Democratic priorities, but he does not think Americans largely regard Canada through a party-political lens.
asserted
Americans → see → lens
“Canada has always been highly non-political in this country,” he said.
asserted
he → say → country
Brian Rathbun, professor at the Munk School of Global Affairs & Public Policy at the University of Toronto, sees the cooling of Republican views as voters taking cues from their party’s leader or “cueing,” rather than anything specific about Canada.
asserted
voters → see → Canada
He sees Republicans downgrading Canada because of Trump’s negative comments about the country, not because of a substantive change in their own relationship with Canada.
asserted
Republicans → see → Canada
“I don’t think it has anything to do with Canada per se,” he said, adding that he expects views to become more positive after Trump leaves office.
asserted
Trump → think → office
Silver noted that about half of Republicans said in 2023 that trade between the two countries benefited both equally.
asserted
trade → note → both
By March 2025, shortly after Trump returned to office and began verbally attacking Canada over trade, the share saying Canada benefited more had risen sharply.
asserted
Canada → return → trade
The findings are consistent with a “cueing” explanation, but cannot establish cause and effect, she said.
asserted
she → cue → cause
“We have cross-sectional data, not causal data,” she explained.
asserted
she → have → data
Speaking before the Pew survey’s release, Christopher Sands, director of the Center for Canadian Studies at Johns Hopkins, warned that blaming Canada for potential Republican midterm losses could make it harder for Ottawa to work with the party.
uncertain
Ottawa → speak → party
“It carries a certain risk that if Democrats do well but are nonetheless seen as the enemy and Canada is associated with just one party, then it becomes harder to have conversations with Republicans who you’ll need unless the Republicans are completely wiped out,” he said.
asserted
he → carry → who
But Rathbun remains optimistic “that Canada is not going to become part of American polarization,” noting that while Canada is currently associated more with Democrats, he doubts this will last.
asserted
this → remain → Democrats
“I’m not worried about this becoming … part of MAGA lore … that Canadians are the enemy,” he said.
asserted
he → ’m → lore
I don’t think it has anything to do with Canada per se
Silver suggested that negative feelings could fade if Canada becomes less prominent in Americans’ minds.
uncertain
Canada → think → minds
“When something is not particularly salient for the public, when they’re not thinking about it often, we can see kind of a reversion almost to the mean,” she said.
asserted
she → think → mean
But negative views could persist if the relationship remains economically consequential to Americans, she cautioned.
uncertain
she → persist → Americans
Even if American goodwill toward Canada rebounds, as he and other experts expect, Rathbun says the damage on the Canadian side is likely to last longer.
asserted
damage → rebound → side
“Canadian attitudes towards Americans will probably be more negative for a longer period of time,” said Rathbun, noting that the confrontation and trade tensions are more consequential for Canadians.
asserted
confrontation → say → Canadians
“It affects them more; they think about it more.”
asserted
they → affect → it
The Aporia
