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“Democrats’ big lead on the generic ballot is consistent with history It’s not hard to understand why Democrats have made further gains in polls lately.”

“However, we look at polls that survey both, and in those polls, Democrats gain a net of about two-and-a-half points among likely voters versus registered voters.”

“So now we’re calling our model FLIPR 🐬 instead.1 In line with our tradition of silly backronyms, FLIPR stands for Forecast with Leading Indicators, Polls and (Expert) Ratings.”

“So, you can’t really trust anything going on in the polls before then.”

“It applies a likely voter adjustment, which in this case benefits Democrats and moves their lead from D +7.5 to D +8.2. -EMD, 9/15/26 This is the landing page for Silver Bulletin’s 2026 generic congressional ballot polling average.”