Early voting has been underway for weeks ahead of the November 3, 2026, midterm elections, when US voters will elect members of the House of Representatives and Senate and governors in states across the country.
asserted
voters → elect → country
Held in the middle of each four-year presidential term, the midterms by definition do not involve the president.
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midterms → hold → president
But for anyone who thinks they lack drama or importance this year, consider these two statistics: More than 100 million people likely will cast ballots in this year’s midterm voting, if turnout is anything like the previous midterm in 2022; and as of October 12, a record $3.8 billion had been spent on political advertisements that have been aired so far.
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that → think → advertisements
Top spending is in battleground US Senate races in Texas, Ohio and Michigan, according to AdImpact, which tracks the activities.
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which → accord → activities
Elon Musk alone has spent about $366m to support Republicans, according to campaign finance records.
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Musk → spend → records
Still, midterms generally attract fewer voters than the higher-profile presidential races.
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midterms → attract → races
More than 155m votes were cast in the 2024 presidential election, for example.
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votes → cast → example
Control of Congress at stake
Plenty is at stake in this midterm election as Democrats try to win majority control of the US Congress.
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Democrats → try → Congress
Currently, Republicans hold a 218-214 majority in the House, where there are two vacancies and one independent who caucuses with Republicans.
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who → hold → Republicans
Democrats must win a net gain of four seats to win control.
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Democrats → win → control
Democrats are also fighting to win the Senate, where Republicans hold a 53-47 majority.
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Republicans → fight → majority
They must net four additional seats to get control.
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They → net → control
Ten races, including those in Maine, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa and Georgia, could decide the outcome.
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races → include → outcome
Can midterms affect the presidency?
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midterms → affect → presidency
Midterm elections generally are dangerous territory for the political party that holds the White House and/or Congress.
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that → hold → House
For 2026, that means that President Donald Trump and his Republicans controlling the US Senate and House of Representatives are in perilous political positions.
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Trump → mean → positions
The midterms can be an opportunity for voters to, in effect, grade the president’s performance, and possibly trigger White House course corrections if they receive low marks.
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they → grade → marks
Midterm election results can also give aspiring presidential candidates hints on how to tailor their messages to voters in the next presidential campaign, which in this case will be in 2028.
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which → give → 2028
What are polls showing?
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polls → show → What
Approval of Trump’s performance is at an all-time low of 32 per cent, according to a September Reuters/Ipsos poll.
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Approval → accord → poll
Domestic issues like rising consumer prices are likely to have an impact on the outcome of many races and could erode support for Republicans.
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issues → rise → Republicans
At the same time, there is evidence that Democrats are more enthusiastic about voting this year than Republicans.
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Democrats → be → Republicans
If early voting trends continue, it could point to a Democratic win in November.
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it → continue → November
There are also signs that Latino voters who veered to Trump in 2024 might be returning to Democrats because of frustration over the economy and some of Trump’s immigration enforcement tactics.
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who → be → tactics
Republicans could benefit from continued scepticism towards Democrats, a Republican spending advantage on campaigns, and fears from moderate voters over some primary wins by left-wingers.
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Republicans → benefit → wingers
Recent midterm history
Recent history tells the story of the shockwaves a midterm election can produce.
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election → tell → shockwaves
In the 2010 midterms, during the Democratic presidency of Barack Obama, Republicans scored major victories, winning 63 additional House seats amid an underperforming US economy and weak support for Obama’s landmark healthcare reform legislation.
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Republicans → score → legislation
Democrats lost their majority.
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Democrats → lose → majority
In the Senate, they held onto control despite losing six seats.
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they → hold → seats
The Republican wave was a “shellacking,” Obama lamented at the time.
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Obama → lament → time
He subsequently faced Republican demands for significant reductions to non-defence spending.
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He → face → spending
Democrats returned the favour in 2018, with Trump in the White House.
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Democrats → return → House
They gained a net total of 40 House seats, but lost a net two Senate seats.
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They → gain → seats
This year’s elections also have races for governors in 36 of the 50 states and voting in nearly every state for seats in their state-level legislative bodies.
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elections → have → bodies
Currently, Republicans control 55pc of state legislative seats across the country, while Democrats hold 43.8pc, according to Ballotpedia.
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Democrats → control → Ballotpedia
If Democrats manage to win the House, the next speaker second in line for the presidency after the vice president is likely to be Democratic Representative Hakeem Jeffries of New York.
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speaker → manage → York
Jeffries, who would become the first Black American to hold the powerful office, would be in a position to direct House committees to launch investigations into a range of controversial activities by Trump and his associates.
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who → become → Trump
Jeffries repeatedly has said Democrats would look into what he has called “unprecedented levels of corruption” during the Trump administration.
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he → say → administration
Jeffries also would steer Democrats’ legislative priorities through the House.
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Jeffries → steer → House
He has said Democrats would focus on making healthcare, groceries, housing, energy and other costs more affordable.
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healthcare → say → ?
…and 7 more, not listed.
The Aporia
