Democrats take edge on mail-in ballots in key midterm races

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Cite

Earle, G. (2026, October 18). Democrats take edge on mail-in ballots in key midterm races. New York Post. https://nypost.com/2026/10/17/us-news/democrats-midterm-elections-mail-in-votes-give-early-leads/

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New York Post · collected 2026-10-18 · by Geoff Earle

Quick Summary

Democrats are leading in early and mail-in votes for key midterms across several states like Michigan, Iowa, and Texas. In these races, Democrats have a significant edge, with 54% of early voters compared to 30% Republicans and 16% independents or others. The article highlights that while this enthusiasm is clear among registered Democrats, it remains uncertain if the trend will translate into broader voter turnout come election day. Notably, President Trump has recently encouraged early voting, a shift from his previous stance against mail-in ballots.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-10-18, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

AI analysis runs on qwen2.5:14b, locally

Story summary

As of October 18, 2026, Democrats have a significant lead in mail-in ballots for key midterm races. According to state election data compiled by TargetSmart and NBC News, 54% of early and mail-in voters were registered Democrats, compared to 30% Republicans and 16% independents or "other" voters.

This trend is particularly notable in critical Senate contests such as the race between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan, where Democrats have a 55-36% edge based on voter registrations. Similarly, in Iowa's contest between Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa) and Democrat Josh Turek, Democrats lead with 57%, while Republicans hold 29%, and 14% are from "other" affiliations.

However, these numbers only reflect registration data and do not indicate actual voting preferences or turnout on Election Day. Political analysts like University of Kentucky’s Stephen Voss note that the early Democratic surge might just represent a typical core group of committed voters rather than a broader voter wave.

Written for “Midterm Elections Mail-In Ballots” on 2026-10-18, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The article's own words the score was based on. Each is quoted verbatim and was checked against the article text before being stored, so you can find it in the original.
Reading Leans left (beta estimate) Confidence medium
Leaning: leans left for article 88017 (medium confidence, 2 verified quotes) · logged 2026-10-18

Story

📰 Midterm Elections Mail-In Ballots
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads leans left and hedges 10% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
US midterm elections: 10 under-the-radar races worth watching different event · 90%
The Guardian
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 8% hedged 4 of 50 📰 publisher trust 68
“The articles describe different aspects of the midterm election process, with Article A discussing under-the-radar races and Article B focusing on early voting trends.”
LIZ PEEK: Two troubled Senate races could spoil Democrats' blue-wave fantasy different event · 90%
Fox News
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 2% hedged 1 of 42 📰 publisher trust 67
“The articles discuss different aspects of the election process, one focusing on tightening polls due to developments in specific races and the other on Democrats' early voting advantage based on mail-in ballots.”
Decoding America: Everything you need to know about the midterms – video different event · 90%
The Guardian
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 17% hedged 1 of 6 📰 publisher trust 68
“Article A discusses predictions and context leading up to the midterms, while Article B reports on actual early voting trends in key races during the midterms.”
Democratic enthusiasm in the 2026 primaries and what it could mean for midterms different event · 90%
ABC News (US)
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 8% hedged 3 of 37 📰 publisher trust 59
“The articles discuss different aspects of voter behavior and participation, one focusing on primary enthusiasm for midterms and the other on early mail-in ballot trends.”
Disillusioned Iowans could tank GOP's midterm chances as even a die-hard MAGA fan issues a damning snub of Trump-backed Ashley Hinson: 'A lot of them are liars' different event · 90%
Daily Mail
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 25 📰 publisher trust 64
“Article A discusses voter apathy and disillusionment in Iowa, while Article B reports on early voting trends with a Democratic edge across several states.”
Millions of Americans have already voted early in midterms different event · 80%
CBS News
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 2 📰 publisher trust 66
“While both articles discuss early voting in the midterms, they refer to different stages of the voting process and provide distinct analyses.”
Breaking down early voting trends in North Carolina, Georgia and Florida different event · 70%
CBS News
⚖️ Centre further right than this 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 2 📰 publisher trust 66
“The articles discuss early voting trends but cover different aspects and timeframes, with Article A focusing on in-person early voting and Article B covering both mail-in ballots and in-person votes.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
20
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
10%
2 of 20 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
Leans left
of the writing, not the subject · beta estimate
Publisher signals
67/100
New York Post's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-10-18 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

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Who wrote this

Geoff Earle
31 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 But what remains to be seen is whether the early numbers point to a predicted overall wave of voters or merely “upper status voters who always vote anyway,” he added.
2026-10-18 · assertive framing · Democrats take edge on mail-in ballots in key midterm races
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🔮 “They will win in all those places.
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🔮 The scandal erupted just after a fiery televised showdown Thursday against GOP rival Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.), who trails El-Sayed by a razor-thin 3 points in the RealClearPolitics average. But the connection is no one-off encounter — a Post review has found Sarsour has backed “Uncle Abdul” for nearly a decade — and it’s now part of the secret to his surprising success. Sarsour, 46, is a figure of national reputation whose efforts helped give rise to NYC mayor Zohran Mamdani — the nation’s first socialist mayor. She helped deliver the lefty “Squad” in Congress after serving as executive director of the Arab American Association of New York and co-founding online mobilizing group MPower Change – while facing repeated accusations of antisemitism along the way.
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Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 31 articles by Geoff Earle →

Topics

Democrat Democratic Democrats Republican Republicans

Subjects

Democrats NORP · 6× Democratic NORP · 4× Republican NORP · 3× Democrat NORP · 2× Iowa GPE · 2× Nebraska GPE · 2× Republicans NORP · 2× Texas GPE · 2× Trump PERSON · 2× Americans NORP · 1×

Narrative

Democrats historically tend to vote early or by mail, although President Trump has regularly blasted mail-voting in favor of in-person voting on Election Day, calling it “inherently corrupt.”
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-18
🔮 But what remains to be seen is whether the early numbers point to a predicted overall wave of voters or merely “upper status voters who always vote anyway,” he added.
2026-10-18 · New York Post
Democrats take edge on mail-in ballots in key midterm races · assertive framing

Claims (20 extracted, 2 hedged)

Democrats are running up lopsided majorities of the early votes as Americans head to the polls and mail in their ballots, carving out a clear majority of the votes cast so far. asserted
Americans → run → votes
Of early and mail-in voters, 54% were Democrats, 30% Republicans and 16% independents or “other,” according to state election data compiled by TargetSmart and NBC News. uncertain
% → mail → TargetSmart
The early vote advantage carries over to the marquee Senate races, including several held in Republican-leaning states. asserted
advantage → carry → states
In Michigan, where Democrat Abdul El-Sayed is battling former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.), the Democratic edge is 55-36%, based on voters’ registrations. asserted
edge → battle → registrations
In Iowa, where Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa) is in a tough race with Democrat Josh Turek, the edge from registered Democrats is 57-29%, with 14% from “other.” asserted
edge → register → other
None of the data show how people actually voted – just who showed up or sent in their ballot. asserted
who → show → ballot
“We know the Democrats have the enthusiasm advantage,” said University of Kentucky political scientist Stephen Voss. asserted
Voss → know → Kentucky
But what remains to be seen is whether the early numbers point to a predicted overall wave of voters or merely “upper status voters who always vote anyway,” he added. asserted
he → remain → voters
One way to explore that is to compare numbers to four years ago. asserted
way → explore → numbers
In Republican-leaning Nebraska, where Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts is battling independent Dan Osborne, the Democratic edge has expanded from then. asserted
edge → lean → Osborne
It’s 45-38 now, compared to 44-41 at this point in voting in 2022. asserted
It → ’ → 2022
Eighty-nine percent of Democrats who have voted in Nebraska also voted in 2022 and 2024, while 10% are new voters, according to the secretary of state. uncertain
% → vote → state
For Republicans, 91% voted in the past but just 7% are new voters. asserted
% → vote → past
Virginia is seeing a flood of early turnout, with 519,000 ballots in compared to 260,000 by this point in 2022, with the total doubling in left-leaning Fairfax County. asserted
total → see → County
In Texas, the which features a high-profile race between Democratic state Rep. James Talarico (D-Texas) and AG Ken Paxton (R-Texas), Democratic edge is an overwhelming 62-32%. asserted
edge → feature → Talarico
Democrats historically tend to vote early or by mail, although President Trump has regularly blasted mail-voting in favor of in-person voting on Election Day, calling it “inherently corrupt.” asserted
Trump → tend → it
But this year, on campaign stops and online, he has been changing his message. asserted
he → change → message
In a video last weekend, Trump told supporters from the Oval Office: “If your state has early voting, do not wait. asserted
state → tell → voting
Vote early, vote by mail, or vote in person on Election Day, November 3rd, so we can defeat the radical left ‘Dumocrats’ in a midterm victory that is too big to rig.” asserted
that → vote → victory
He also told voters to “pretend I’m on the ballot.” asserted
I → tell → ballot
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