Dems lead GOP in House vote choice as Trump's approval rating hits record low: Poll

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Guskin, E. (2026, October 18). Dems lead GOP in House vote choice as Trump's approval rating hits record low: Poll. ABC News (US). https://abcnews.com/Politics/democrats-lead-republicans-house-vote-choice-trumps-approval/story?id=137322849

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ABC News (US) · collected 2026-10-18 · by Emily Guskin

Quick Summary

According to an ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll, Democrats lead Republicans among likely voters for the upcoming House elections with a margin of 8 percentage points. President Trump's approval rating has reached its lowest point at about 3 in 10, while over half of Americans consider household expenses like gasoline and groceries unaffordable. The poll also shows that Democrats have higher enthusiasm levels among their supporters compared to Republicans.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-10-18, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

AI analysis runs on qwen2.5:14b, locally

Story summary

As of October 18, 2026, Democrats lead Republicans in voter preference for congressional district elections by an 8-point margin among likely voters (52% to 44%) according to the ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll. This trend is consistent with registered voters overall, where Democrats also hold a 8-point advantage (50% to 42%). President Donald Trump's approval rating has reached a record low during this period, coinciding with voter concerns about affordability and national direction. Specifically, nearly half of Americans find gasoline unaffordable, while more than two-thirds believe the country is moving in the wrong direction. The poll was conducted from October 9-13, 2026, surveying 2,545 U.S. adults including 2,032 registered and likely voters with a margin of error of ±2 percentage points overall and ±2.2 among registered and likely voters.

Written for “Dems Lead GOP In House Vote Choice” on 2026-10-18, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The article's own words the score was based on. Each is quoted verbatim and was checked against the article text before being stored, so you can find it in the original.
Reading Leans left (beta estimate) Confidence medium
Leaning: leans left for article 88210 (medium confidence, 3 verified quotes) · logged 2026-10-18

Story

📰 Dems Lead GOP In House Vote Choice
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads leans left and hedges 2% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Semafor
⚖️ Leans strongly left further left than this 🔴 25% hedged 1 of 4 📰 publisher trust 60
“The articles discuss different polls and aspects of public opinion over a period spanning several days leading up to midterms.”
Fox News
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 9% hedged 5 of 57 📰 publisher trust 67
“The articles discuss similar political trends and poll results but describe different aspects of the situation around midterm elections, not the exact same incident.”
ABC News (US)
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 8% hedged 3 of 37 📰 publisher trust 59
“The articles discuss different aspects of political sentiment and polling data leading up to midterm elections but do not describe the same specific incident or occurrence.”
BBC News
⚖️ Centre further right than this 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 5 📰 publisher trust 69
“The articles discuss general polling and voter sentiment leading up to midterms but describe different aspects of the election context.”
The Guardian
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 3 📰 publisher trust 68
“Article A discusses voter motivations for upcoming midterm elections broadly, while Article B reports on a specific poll showing approval ratings and voting preferences.”
The Guardian
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 5% hedged 2 of 42 📰 publisher trust 68
“The articles discuss different aspects of political sentiment and polling data around the midterms but do not describe the same specific incident or occurrence.”
Al Jazeera
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 20% hedged 3 of 15 📰 publisher trust 60
“The articles report on different polls conducted at different times and published by different organizations.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

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Claims extracted
86
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
2%
2 of 86 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
Leans left
of the writing, not the subject · beta estimate
Publisher signals
59/100
ABC News (US)'s corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-10-18 · how these are computed

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Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

ABC News (US) · 951 article(s) · 2 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 2 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Emily Guskin
2 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 Although control of the House will ultimately be determined in votes for individual candidates in individual congressional districts across the county, the generic House question is a useful barometer.
🔮 Democratic enthusiasm in the 2026 primaries and what it could mean for midterm elections ABC News analyzed relative partisan turnout in the primary elections.
Also by Emily Guskin
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.

Topics

Democratic Democrats House Republican Republicans

Subjects

Democrats NORP · 9× Americans NORP · 8× Democratic NORP · 7× Republicans NORP · 7× Republican NORP · 5× Trump PERSON · 5× House ORG · 4× ABC News ORG · 2× Ipsos ORG · 2× ABC/Post/Ipsos ORG · 1×

Narrative

Methodology: This ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll was conducted via the probability-based Ipsos KnowledgePanel Oct. 9-13, 2026, among 2,545 U.S. adults including 2,032 registered and likely voters and has an error margin of +/- 2 percentage points overall and +/- 2.2 points among registered and likely voters.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-18
🔮 Although control of the House will ultimately be determined in votes for individual candidates in individual congressional districts across the county, the generic House question is a useful barometer.

Claims (86 extracted, 2 hedged)

Democrats lead Republicans in House vote choice as Trump's approval rating hits record low: ABC/Post/Ipsos poll asserted
rating → lead → poll
Half or more Americans call every household purchase measured "unaffordable." asserted
Americans → call → purchase
Just over two-weeks out from consequential midterm elections, a record share of Americans disapprove of President Donald Trump, about 7 in 10 say gasoline is unaffordable and that the country is headed in the wrong direction, according to an ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll conducted using Ipsos’ KnowledgePanel. Midterms By an 8-percentage point margin, likely voters support the Democratic candidate in congressional district elections over the Republican candidate, 52% to 44%. uncertain
voters → disapprove → candidate
That margin remains 8 points among registered voters overall, 50% to 42%, an improvement from a July Washington Post-Ipsos poll for Democrats, when just 3 points separated the Democrats from the Republicans. asserted
points → remain → Republicans
Although control of the House will ultimately be determined in votes for individual candidates in individual congressional districts across the county, the generic House question is a useful barometer. asserted
question → determine → county
For example, before the last midterms, a fall 2022 ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll found registered voters nearly split and Republicans went on to win Congress. asserted
Republicans → find → Congress
In a fall 2018 poll, Democrats had an 11-point lead over Republicans among registered voters and Democrats went on to win the House that year. asserted
Democrats → have → House
Overwhelming shares of partisans support their party’s candidates – 98% of Democratic likely voters and 96% of Republican likely voters each support their party candidates. asserted
% → support → candidates
Democrats are bolstering their lead among independent likely voters, who support Democratic candidates by a 21-point margin, 56% to 35%. asserted
who → bolster → margin
Democrats are also benefiting from the fact that there’s more enthusiasm from their supporters. asserted
Democrats → benefit → supporters
More Democratic voters (72%) than Republican voters (65%) say they are absolutely certain to vote and more Democratic voters are following the midterms “extremely” or “very” closely than Republican voters – 44% to 31%. asserted
voters → say → voters
About 9 in 10 of the roughly half of likely voters who strongly disapprove of Trump plan to vote for the Democratic candidate in their congressional district asserted
who → disapprove → district
And over 9 in 10 of the likely voters who approve of Trump plan to vote for Republicans. asserted
who → approve → Republicans
But the roughly 1 in 10 voters who somewhat disapprove of Trump support the Republican candidate over the Democratic one by a double-digit margin, 58% to 34%. asserted
who → disapprove → margin
Half or more Americans call every household purchase category measured “unaffordable” in the latest poll, including 71% who now call gasoline unaffordable, up from 28% who said the same in February, before the war in Iran drove up fuel costs. asserted
war → call → costs
The national average gas price has topped $4 a gallon for a record 158 days in 2026 so far. asserted
price → top → 2026
An increasing share of Americans also call healthcare unaffordable (65%, up from 56% in February) along with home energy and utility costs (57%, up from 45%) and rent or mortgage (50%, up from 37%). asserted
share → increase → %
And 60% call groceries unaffordable, also up from February (45%) but less than July (66%). Growing shares of Americans call relative luxuries unaffordable, too. asserted
shares → call → luxuries
A 61% majority of Americans call going out to dinner unaffordable, up from 49% in February. asserted
majority → call → February
Even more, 69%, say a weeklong vacation is unaffordable, up from 60%. asserted
vacation → say → %
And 80% call a new car unaffordable, up from 74% in February. asserted
% → call → February
In all, 75% of Americans rate the nation’s economy negatively, including 35% who call it poor. asserted
who → rate → it
Roughly half, 48%, say they are “not as well off” as they were when Trump became president, a high over both of his presidential terms. asserted
Trump → say → terms
Likely voters who rate the economy poorly support Democrats over Republicans in the generic ballot by 72 points. asserted
who → rate → points
Likely voters who say they are not as well off support Democrats over Republicans by 60 points. asserted
they → say → points
Beyond just the economy, Americans are unhappy with the direction the country is moving in: 72% say things in the country are headed in the wrong direction; just 26% say things are heading in the right direction. asserted
things → move → direction
Trump’s weak approval ratings do not bode well for his party given that midterms are often a referendum vote on the president. asserted
midterms → bode → president
And Trump’s approval rating has reached a record personal low of 33% percent in the ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll, lower even than after the Jan. 6, 2021, attacks on the U.S. Capitol when 38% approved. asserted
% → reach → Capitol
Today, 66% of Americans disapprove, a record high over both terms. asserted
% → disapprove → terms
Just over half of Americans, 52%, strongly disapprove of Trump, matching his strong disapproval rating after the Jan. 6 attack, and a record high for his second term, according to the poll. uncertain
half → disapprove → poll
Over both of his terms, a record-low 22% of independents approve of Trump and a record-high 76% disapprove, including 58% who strongly disapprove – another record high over both of Trump’s terms. asserted
who → approve → terms
Among Republicans, 79% approve, down just slightly from a July Post-Ipsos poll but down significantly from 88% near the beginning of his second term. asserted
% → approve → term
And a record-low 39% strongly approve of Trump, down from 63% in February 2025. asserted
% → approve → February
Today, 21% of Republicans disapprove, up from 12% in February 2025. asserted
% → disapprove → February
That includes nearly half of non-MAGA Republicans (47%) who disapprove today. asserted
who → include → Republicans
A majority of MAGA Republicans strongly approve of the president, 55%, but that’s down from 65% in February. asserted
that → approve → February
About 6 in 10 Republicans consider themselves supporters of the MAGA movement, both now and in February. asserted
themselves → consider → February
Among registered voters overall, Trump’s overall approval rating is slightly better: 37% approve and 63% disapprove. asserted
% → register → voters
Majorities of Americans also disapprove of how Trump is handling every issue measured, and for many issues, Trump is at or near record-low approvals. asserted
Trump → disapprove → approvals
His worst issue is handling the cost of living in the U.S. -- perhaps the defining issue for the 2026 midterms -- and his ratings are similarly low to what they were in the ABC/Post/Ipsos poll in April. asserted
they → handle → April
…and 46 more, not listed.
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