As the November midterm elections approach, many people in the US are feeling rather pessimistic about their futures.
asserted
people → approach → futures
An Economist/YouGov survey in the US completed on October 12 asked how respondents felt about about their futures compared with ten years ago.
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respondents → complete → futures
Altogether, 23% said they were more optimistic, with 48% saying they were more pessimistic.
Another question in the survey, conducted from October 10-12, just over three weeks out from the November 3 election, asked: “Do you feel that things in this country these days are under control or out of control?”
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things → say → control
Only 19% thought they were under control, while 70% thought the opposite.
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% → think → opposite
A third asked about the direction the country is taking.
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country → ask → direction
Altogether 27% thought that it is “generally heading in the right direction” while 66% thought it is “off on the wrong track”.
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it → think → track
There are numerous factors which can explain the pessimism but two stand out: attitudes to the US president, Donald Trump, and the state of the economy under his administration.
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two → be → administration
Respondents were asked if they agreed or disagreed with various of descriptors of the president.
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they → ask → president
The chart below shows the percentages who agreed with each of them.
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who → show → them
It is readily apparent that large numbers of Americans really dislike the president – corruption being the most prominent descriptor followed by perceptions that he is dangerous.
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he → dislike → perceptions
Only 28% thought he is effective and 23% that he is honest.
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he → think → ?
Altogether 34% of respondents thought that the economy and inflation were the most important issues facing the country.
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economy → think → country
When asked about the president’s handling of inflation, 28% of respondents approved while 67% disapproved.
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% → ask → respondents
It is important to note that Americans were very much focused on domestic issues when responding to questions about the most important issues facing the country.
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Americans → note → country
Only 6% of them thought that foreign policy was the most important issue.
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policy → think → them
Voting intentions for the midterms
Typically, the incumbent president’s party loses seats in Congress in the midterm elections.
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party → lose → elections
In the 2018 midterm elections in Trump’s first term, the Republicans had a net loss of 39 seats in the House of Representatives – but they actually gained two seats in the Senate.
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they → have → Senate
So, on the face of things, we would expect the Democrats to gain in the House given Trump’s current unpopularity, while the Senate race remains uncertain.
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race → expect → unpopularity
But the federal structure of American politics means that while presidential popularity influences the way people vote in Congressional elections, it is not the only thing that matters.
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that → mean → elections
Tip O’Neal, the Democrat speaker of the House of Representatives from 1977 to 1987 used to say: “All politics is local.”
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politics → use → 1987
State politics and issues are important in these elections, allowing members of Congress to distance themselves from the president and focus on local issues.
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members → allow → issues
That said, there is evidence that national political issues are growing in importance in Congressional elections over time.
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issues → say → time
The second chart shows voting intentions of respondents in the House of Representative elections classified by sex, ethnicity, age and education.
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chart → show → sex
The Democrats were ahead by seven percentage points overall, registering 46% in voting intentions compared with 39% for the Republicans.
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Democrats → register → Republicans
Looking at different demographic groups, the Democrats were ahead or level with the Republicans in all groups except white voters.
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Democrats → look → voters
Women, black and Latino voters, the young and voters with college degrees all strongly support the Democrats.
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Women → support → Democrats
In general, this means that the likelihood of the Democrats winning control of the House is very high in these elections.
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Democrats → mean → elections
The third chart shows voting intentions in the Senate elections.
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chart → show → elections
Some 45% of respondents intend to vote Democrat, with 40% supporting the Republicans.
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% → intend → Republicans
Democrat Senators and their independent allies Bernie Sanders from Vermont and Angus King from Maine, currently have 47 seats in the Senate.
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Senators → have → Senate
Therefore, the party needs to win in at least four states to take control of the chamber.
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party → need → chamber
If, for example, they won three seats this would give them 50% but their votes could be overridden by the vice-president, J.D. Vance.
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votes → win → vice
He is the speaker of the Senate and has a casting vote in the event of a tie.
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He → have → tie
Key senate contests
NBC news has suggested likely Democrat wins in North Carolina and in Maine, both of which are currently held by the Republicans.
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both → suggest → Republicans
In addition, it classifies Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas, all currently held by Republicans, as “toss-ups” as far as Democrat wins are concerned.
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wins → classify → ups
We can look at the winning margins in the previous Senate elections in these states to provide a rough guide to how easy it will be for the Democrats to take them.
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Democrats → look → them
In the 2020 Senate elections, when Joe Biden beat Donald Trump for the presidency, the Republicans took Iowa with a margin of 6.5 percentage points over the Democrats.
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Republicans → beat → Democrats
In the 2022 midterm elections the Republicans beat the Democrats by 6 points in Ohio.
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Republicans → beat → Ohio
Clearly if the Democrats win North Carolina, Maine, Iowa and Ohio they would take control of the Senate.
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they → win → Senate
In addition, according to the Forbes newsletter, recent polling shows the Democrats lead by 50% to 43% in Alaska and 51% to 49% in Texas.
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Democrats → accord → Texas
…and 2 more, not listed.
The Aporia
