Alberta separatists lost the vote.
asserted
separatists → lose → vote
They'll continue their fight inside Danielle Smith's party
UCP leader hardens support for the united Canada much of her base still wants to leave
Premier Danielle Smith has long expressed a desire to put the separatist issue to rest after the referendum.
asserted
Smith → continue → referendum
United Conservative Party activists stand in the way of her wish.
asserted
activists → stand → wish
Now that the broad Alberta public has decisively rejected the separatist idea, the debate is returning to where it began: within Smith’s own political coalition.
asserted
it → reject → coalition
The more energy she must expend on taming UCP turbulence and any challenges to her leadership, the less time she can spend on actual government priorities.
asserted
she → expend → priorities
And could the disappearance of the UCP’s lead in the polls and the NDP’s recent byelection victory in what used to be a cabinet minister’s safe seat be a sign that Albertans have noticed her focus appears to be more on her base than on everyone else?
uncertain
focus → use → everyone
In a videotaped speech Smith released Tuesday evening, she asserted her government has a “clear mandate” to support a united Canada, and begin the “next chapter.”
asserted
government → videotape → chapter
And the country’s current state, with pro-pipeline Mark Carney as prime minister, is one the premier believes could soothe the disillusionment that created the recent push for independence.
uncertain
that → believe → independence
“So tonight I want to invite every Albertan who may still feel hopeless or frustrated with the past direction of our country, to believe and hope in Canada again,” she said.
uncertain
she → want → Canada
“Because although our country isn’t perfect and there is still much work to be done, I believe that Canada is on the rise again.
asserted
Canada → be → rise
That’s a video message aimed at separatists and many of her own partisans, who appear to have become synonymous.
asserted
who → ’ → partisans
Surveys suggest that Alberta independence is a phenomenon almost solely contained inside the United Conservative voter base and party membership.
asserted
independence → suggest → base
And the referendum results appear to bear that out: the province’s major cities wanted to stay in Canada, and so did almost all rural ridings, as UCP-friendly as they are.
asserted
they → appear → Canada
Independence supporters watch for voting results in the referendum on separation.
asserted
supporters → watch → separation
Their side only mustered one-quarter of the votes.
asserted
side → muster → votes
The western Canadian unity question will no longer preoccupy international media, and no longer pose the threat to business and investor certainty that chamber of commerce types have discussed.
asserted
types → preoccupy → commerce
That’s not as clear — not after so many thousand United Conservatives pursued independence, as their party leader promoted Canadian unity alongside Prime Minister Mark Carney.
asserted
leader → ’ → Carney
“Our own government is working against a large percentage of its base,” said Mitch Sylvestre the day after Albertans voted “remain” by a three-to-one margin.
asserted
Albertans → work → margin
He’s not only the leader of the separatist group Alberta Prosperity Project, he’s also a prominent organizer within the UCP.
asserted
he → ’ → UCP
“They've made a decision, and, you know, they're going to have to live with the consequences.”
asserted
they → make → consequences
He and APP fellow traveller Jeff Rath have mused about trying to push Smith out of the party leadership.
asserted
He → muse → leadership
On Tuesday, he also spoke of taking his separatist cadre out of the UCP if it can’t transform the party into a pro-separatist vehicle.
asserted
it → speak → vehicle
Throughout his lengthy campaign for a pro-independence citizen’s petition and then to have a true “leave” referendum, Sylvestre said he didn’t want to split the party “because I didn't want to split up the vote.”
asserted
I → have → vote
“But at some point, you know, at some point you have to decide that if that's not working, then you have to go another direction.”
asserted
you → know → direction
Smith will have to fight to keep the separatists and federalists within the same tent, and there are early indications that a pro-Smith, anti-separatist movement will line up behind her in that fight.
asserted
movement → have → fight
Moderates and old Progressive Conservatives from that side of the Wildrose/PC unity party may show up in force at late November’s annual UCP convention to rival what their more hardened conservative counterparts used to term “the freedom movement.”
uncertain
counterparts → show → what
Smith has reported that 6,900 party members have already registered to attend the Calgary gathering — more than showed up at last year’s gathering or at 2024’s, when she campaigned for and secured a 91.5 per cent support vote in a leadership review.
asserted
she → report → review
Mitch Sylvestre was an influential figure at the 2024 UCP convention, and intends to be the same again this November.
asserted
Sylvestre → intend → convention
Discontent after the referendum defeat may push more UCP riding associations to demand another leadership review, following on the lead of the Highwood and Calgary-Buffalo constituencies.
uncertain
Discontent → push → constituencies
Two factions showing up in force, each trying to overwhelm the other?
asserted
each → show → other
That could be a recipe for even more friction than has been on display at past gatherings, especially now that the fault line isn't PC and Wildrose — it's federalist and separatist.
But while APP’s Sylvestre and Rath may be more resolved to break up the UCP if that’s what it takes, they don’t stand for all separatists in a movement that’s wide-ranging and leaderless (and as of Monday, officially defeated and perhaps somewhat demoralized).
uncertain
that → break → Monday
Sylvestre attended Saturday’s rally at the legislature, but wasn’t asked to speak alongside other top organizers and an Ultimate Fighting Championship mixed martial artist.
asserted
Sylvestre → attend → organizers
Chris Scott, frontman of Let’s Talk Alberta, believes Sylvestre has his own political ambitions and ideas that others don’t share.
asserted
others → let → that
“He thinks that if somehow the UCP has a hard-core, independence-minded, Alberta sovereigntist as premier, that they will get a better outcome on a referendum,” Scott said.
asserted
Scott → think → referendum
He believes that won’t happen, at least not quickly after a 25 per cent vote for Option 2.
asserted
that → believe → Option
Scott said it might be more of a long march now toward the independence he believes is inevitable.
uncertain
he → say → independence
He’s applied to run for a spot on the UCP’s board of directors at the convention, in hopes he can help push the party along that road.
asserted
he → apply → road
Scott agreed that Smith’s internal support is in trouble, but said she could shore it up by more firmly supporting the “sovereign Alberta within a United Canada” that she’s long spoken of — beyond the immigration or judicial selection powers she’s proposed with some of her other nine referendum questions.
uncertain
she → agree → questions
By that, the Let’s Talk Alberta activist means starting Alberta’s own tax collection and pension agencies.
asserted
activist → let → agencies
Smith already floated those ideas through the Alberta Next panel last year, and found them unpopular.
asserted
them → float → panel
…and 6 more, not listed.
The Aporia
