Alberta will remain part of Canada — for now.
asserted
Alberta → remain → Canada
Ballots are still being counted on the province’s 10 referendum questions, but as it stands, voters rejected the separatist option by roughly three to one.
asserted
voters → count → one
On the other nine questions, they appear to have given Premier Danielle Smith a slim-to-moderate victory, setting the scene for future showdowns with Ottawa over immigration and health care, while she contends with internal divisions that are sure to fester in the United Conservative Party.
asserted
that → appear → Party
In fact, for both Smith and Prime Minister Mark Carney, the fireworks are just beginning.
asserted
fireworks → begin → Smith
I spent the night at the Radio-Canada election desk in Edmonton, helping fill air for three hours until the results came in, and watching interviews with supporters of both leave and remain.
asserted
results → spend → supporters
Most in the separation camp predicted results of at least 30 per cent, with one even suggesting 55 per cent, insisting that a hidden separatist vote would materialize once Albertans entered the privacy of the voting booth.
asserted
Albertans → predict → booth
That didn’t happen, but while the separatists lost the referendum, they have not abandoned their cause.
asserted
they → happen → cause
The question is how they choose to pursue it: inside or outside the UCP.
asserted
they → choose → UCP
Rancher Tim Hoven, a separatist supporter, questioned whether the movement needed its own political party, saying only that, “The right leader will show up at the right time to show us over the finish line.”
asserted
leader → question → line
Such thoughts don’t bode well for Smith, who faces a UCP convention in November, where separation supporters, who form a slim majority in her party, will have an opportunity to vent their frustrations.
asserted
who → bode → frustrations
If Smith can’t satisfy separatists without alienating mainstream conservatives, she could face a leadership challenge or a party split, possibly spawning an even thornier version of her former Wildrose Party.
uncertain
she → satisfy → Party
Either scenario would threaten the coalition that brought the UCP to power and boost the fortunes of NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi.
asserted
that → threaten → Nenshi
Smelling blood in the water, last night Nenshi reiterated his call to Smith to hold an election as soon as possible, ahead of next year’s fixed October date.
asserted
Nenshi → smell → date
The NDP is currently polling at 43 per cent to the UCP’s 48, a result considered within the margin of error.
asserted
NDP → poll → error
Carney will also have his set of challenges.
asserted
Carney → have → challenges
Albertans voted on nine other questions involving immigration, access to social services, voting requirements and provincial powers.
asserted
Albertans → vote → services
A clear majority supports greater provincial control over immigration and restrictions on certain benefits for newcomers — including Canadians from outside Alberta.
asserted
majority → support → Alberta
That flies in the face of Carney’s ambitious One Economy plans, which would see the end to interprovincial barriers to labour mobility.
asserted
which → fly → mobility
It also complicates his agenda of “building Canada strong” through major projects including a new pipeline to take oil to tidewater from Alberta.
asserted
Canada → complicate → Alberta
Without enough skilled workers, Carney’s goal risks becoming a pipe dream.
asserted
goal → risk → workers
Not surprisingly, perhaps, Carney is now contemplating a possible uptick in immigration levels.
asserted
Carney → contemplate → levels
But with Canadian public sentiment swinging against newcomers, as in much of the western world, he could face serious political pushback.
uncertain
he → swing → pushback
And resistance won’t just come from Alberta.
asserted
resistance → come → Alberta
Quebec’s recent election revolved largely around the question of immigration.
asserted
election → revolve → immigration
New premier Paul St-Pierre Plamondon also wants to cut newcomer numbers, as well as pave the way for another Quebec referendum, creating a squeeze play for Carney from east and west.
asserted
Plamondon → want → east
The risk then becomes that not only are there too few workers to get shovels in the ground, but investors sit on the sidelines, passing the popcorn while these political dramas play out.
asserted
dramas → become → popcorn
The other people watching this are the Americans.
asserted
people → watch → this
U.S. media have highlighted Carney’s anti-American rhetoric and calls to stay unified against countries that are “trying to break us so they can own us.”
asserted
they → highlight → us
It’s quite clear who Carney means, and while Alberta’s vote to remain should cheer him, the underlying sentiment still threatens the united front he needs to preserve.
asserted
he → ’ → front
The Aporia
