A decade ago, the Democratic Unionist party (DUP) viewed Brexit as a potential gamechanger in the struggle to resist future pressure for a united Ireland.
asserted
party → view → Ireland
As the author and journalist Fintan O’Toole wrote in an essay published last year, the DUP hoped that the 2016 referendum would deliver “a double exit.
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referendum → write → exit
Brexit would not simply mean the UK’s departure from the EU.
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Brexit → mean → EU
It would reverse the slow drift towards integration.”
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It → reverse → integration
That proved to be, to put it mildly, a deeply flawed judgment.
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That → prove → it
Rather than leading to a hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland, which would have disastrously undermined the Good Friday agreement, the UK’s divorce agreement from Brussels eventually placed one in the Irish Sea.
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agreement → lead → Sea
The logic of further economic integration between north and south within the EU’s single market was reinforced.
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logic → reinforce → market
At the same time, demographic change has meant that people with a Catholic background now outnumber those with a Protestant one in Northern Ireland, changing the political calculus.
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people → mean → calculus
In 2022, Sinn Féin won a historic victory in Stormont elections, leading to Michelle O’Neill’s appointment as the first nationalist first minister.
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Féin → win → minister
On Monday, during a meeting with the heads of the UK’s other devolved nations, Ms O’Neill welcomed off-the-cuff remarks by Donald Trump during an unofficial visit to Ireland, in which he said he would “love” to see unification.
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he → welcome → unification
The US president’s comments, she claimed, reflected the fact “that there is a growing conversation around constitutional change”.
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she → claim → change
But it is a debate that has barely begun, and one which needs to be conducted with care and caution.
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which → begin → care
The 1998 Good Friday agreement was intentionally vague about the criteria for holding a border poll.
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agreement → hold → poll
Successive governments in London and Dublin have since preferred to concentrate on promoting and developing cross-border co-operation.
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governments → prefer → operation
Given the history, and the level of political risk involved, that was a sensible strategy.
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that → give → risk
But the dynamics of the debate have shifted.
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dynamics → shift → debate
Mr Trump’s blithe remarks followed hard on the heels of an early spat between Ms O’Neill and Andy Burnham, after the prime minister said during a visit to Belfast that a poll on a united Ireland was “off the table”.
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poll → follow → table
In the short and medium term, Mr Burnham’s position makes sense.
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position → make → sense
But for all sides, sleepwalking into a vote without adequate preparation is equally unpalatable.
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sleepwalking → sleepwalk → preparation
In Northern Ireland a disturbing revival of tensions over Orange Order marches in Catholic areas suggests deepening polarisation, fuelled by ongoing political dysfunction at Stormont.
uncertain
revival → suggest → Stormont
A sober, lengthy and detailed public conversation is required over what form unification might take, and the possible trade-offs involved.
uncertain
unification → require → form
In an interview with the Guardian last month, the former prime minister Gordon Brown suggested that “of course, in the long term, Ireland will be united”.
uncertain
Ireland → suggest → term
Unlike Mr Trump, though, he added a significant rider.
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he → add → rider
Reaching that outcome would be “a long process where people have got to come together and find a way of agreeing.
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people → reach → way
Basically, that is the issue: whether people can actually agree.”
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people → agree → ?
Leaders on all sides of the debate should heed that caveat.
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Leaders → heed → caveat
The Aporia
