A recent BTG Pactual/Nexus poll conducted from September 11 to 13 shows Brazilian President Lula regaining a narrow lead over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro for the October election, with Lula receiving 47% support in a simulated runoff compared to Bolsonaro's 46%. In a first-round scenario, Lula leads with 42%, followed by Bolsonaro at 37%. The poll surveyed 2,003 people and has a margin of error of 2 percentage points.
Written by the local model on 2026-09-14,
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Story summary
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva regained a slim lead over right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a simulated runoff for the upcoming election, according to a poll released by BTG Pactual/Nexus on Monday. The latest poll indicates that if there was a second round of voting, Lula would receive 47% of voter support compared with 46% for Bolsonaro, putting him ahead but still within a statistical tie. Last week's poll had shown Bolsonaro leading by 46% to 45%. In the first-round scenario, Lula leads with 42%, followed by Bolsonaro at 37%, Augusto Cury at 6%, Ronaldo Caiado at 5%, and Renan Santos at 2%. If no candidate secures more than 50% of valid votes in the October 4 first round, a runoff will be held on October 25. Nexus surveyed 2,003 people from September 9 to 12 for this poll.
Written for “Brazil Election Polls” on 2026-09-14,
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No political leaning scored for article 8898 · logged 2026-09-14
Brazil's Lula regains narrow edge over Bolsonaro in BTG/Nexus poll
SAO PAULO, Sept 14 - Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva regained a slim lead over right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a simulated runoff for next month's election, a BTG Pactual/Nexus poll showed on Monday, though the race remained statistically tied.
asserted
race → regain → Monday
Last week, the BTG Pactual/Nexus poll showed Bolsonaro numerically ahead of Lula for the first time since March, helping Brazilian assets rally as the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro is considered more market-friendly.
•
asserted
son → show → Bolsonaro
If there was a runoff, Lula would receive 47% of voter support compared with 46% for Senator Bolsonaro, the latest poll said.
asserted
poll → be → Bolsonaro
• A September 8 survey had Bolsonaro leading Lula by 46% to 45%.
asserted
Bolsonaro → have → %
• In a first-round scenario, Lula would lead with 42% of the votes, followed by Bolsonaro (37%), Augusto Cury (6%), Ronaldo Caiado (5%) and Renan Santos (2%), the poll said.
asserted
poll → lead → Bolsonaro
• The previous first-round survey had Lula at 39%, Bolsonaro at 35% and Cury at 9%.
asserted
survey → have → %
• If no candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes in the October 4 first round, the two frontrunners advance to a runoff on October 25.
asserted
frontrunners → win → October
• Nexus surveyed 2,003 people from September 11 to 13.
asserted
Nexus → survey → 13
The poll has a margin of error of 2 percentage points.
asserted
poll → have → points
