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Lula would beat Bolsonaro in a Brazilian runoff, CNT/MDA poll suggests

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The Straits Times. (2026, September 15). Lula would beat Bolsonaro in a Brazilian runoff, CNT/MDA poll suggests. The Straits Times. https://www.straitstimes.com/world/lula-would-beat-bolsonaro-in-a-brazilian-runoff-cntmda-poll-suggests

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The Straits Times · collected 2026-09-15 · by The Straits Times

Quick Summary

A recent CNT/MDA poll shows that Brazilian President Lula would likely defeat Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in an October runoff election if no candidate wins more than 50% of the votes in the first round on October 4. The poll, conducted from September 9 to 13 with a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points, indicates Lula would receive 47.3% support compared to Bolsonaro's 40% in a potential second-round scenario. In the initial round, Lula leads with 40.5%, followed by Bolsonaro at 30.4%.
Written by AI on 2026-09-16, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

A recent CNT/MDA poll suggests that if there were a second-round runoff for Brazil's upcoming election on October 4, current President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva would receive 47.3% of voter support, compared to Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who would get 40%. The poll also indicates that in a first-round scenario on the same date, Lula leads with 40.5%, followed by Bolsonaro at 30.4%. Should no candidate secure more than 50% of votes in the first round, a runoff is scheduled for October 25. The survey was conducted between September 9 and 13, interviewing 2,002 people, with a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points.

Written for “Brazil Polls Predict Election Outcome” on 2026-11-01, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 Brazil Polls Predict Election Outcome
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 38% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
The Straits Times
Hedges 1 of 8 claims Outlet record 66/100
“The articles describe different polls conducted by distinct organizations on separate dates.”
Al Jazeera
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 1 of 20 claims Outlet record 60/100
“The articles cover different topics related to Brazilian politics but describe distinct events: one is about a poll predicting election outcomes, while the other is about welfare increases announced by President Lula ahead of the election.”
The Straits Times
Hedges 0 of 9 claims Outlet record 66/100
“The articles describe different polls conducted by distinct organizations on separate days.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
8
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
38%
3 of 8 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
not political
takes no side on a contested political question
Publisher signals
66/100
The Straits Times's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-09-16 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

The Straits Times · 4097 article(s) · 5 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 5 correction(s)

Who wrote this

The Straits Times
2601 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
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Also by The Straits Times
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
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Topics

Brazilian CNT REUTERS SAO PAULO

Subjects

Lula PERSON · 5× Bolsonaro PERSON · 4× CNT ORG · 3× Brazilian NORP · 2× Augusto Cury PERSON · 1× Flavio Bolsonaro PERSON · 1× Jair Bolsonaro PERSON · 1× Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva PERSON · 1× Ronaldo Caiado PERSON · 1× SAO PAULO GPE · 1×

Narrative

• If there was a runoff, Lula would receive 47.3% of voter support, compared with 40% for the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, the poll said.
framing: mixed · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-09-16
🔮 Lula would beat Bolsonaro in a Brazilian runoff, CNT/MDA poll suggests
2026-09-16 · The Straits Times
Lula would beat Bolsonaro in a Brazilian runoff, CNT/MDA poll suggests · mixed framing

Claims (8 extracted, 3 hedged)

Lula would beat Bolsonaro in a Brazilian runoff, CNT/MDA poll suggests uncertain
Lula → beat → runoff
SAO PAULO, Sept 15 - Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva would beat right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro if they were in a second-round runoff in next month's election, according to a CNT/MDA poll released on Tuesday. uncertain
they → beat → Tuesday
• If there was a runoff, Lula would receive 47.3% of voter support, compared with 40% for the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, the poll said. asserted
poll → be → Bolsonaro
• In an August 11 poll, Lula led Senator Bolsonaro by 48% to 39.1%. asserted
Lula → lead → %
• In a first-round scenario, Lula would receive 40.5% of voter support, followed by Bolsonaro (30.4%), Augusto Cury (6%), Ronaldo Caiado (3%) and Renan Santos (2.7%), according to the poll. uncertain
Lula → receive → poll
• The previous first-round survey showed Lula at 42.4% and Bolsonaro at 28.7%. asserted
survey → show → %
• If no candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes in the October 4 first round, the two frontrunners advance to a runoff on October 25. asserted
frontrunners → win → October
• CNT surveyed 2,002 people from September 9 to 13 with a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points. asserted
CNT → survey → points
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