The Aporia · Lula would beat Bolsonaro in a Brazilian runoff, CNT/MDA poll suggests

A recent CNT/MDA poll shows that Brazilian President Lula would likely defeat Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in an October runoff election if no candidate wins more than 50% of the votes in the first round on October 4. The poll, conducted from September 9 to 13 with a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points, indicates Lula would receive 47.3% support compared to Bolsonaro's 40% in a potential second-round scenario. In the initial round, Lula leads with 40.5%, followed by Bolsonaro at 30.4%.

Written by the local model on 2026-09-16, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

Story summary

A recent CNT/MDA poll suggests that if there were a second-round runoff for Brazil's upcoming election on October 4, current President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva would receive 47.3% of voter support, compared to Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who would get 40%. The poll also indicates that in a first-round scenario on the same date, Lula leads with 40.5%, followed by Bolsonaro at 30.4%. Should no candidate secure more than 50% of votes in the first round, a runoff is scheduled for October 25. The survey was conducted between September 9 and 13, interviewing 2,002 people, with a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points.

Written for “Brazil Polls Predict Election Outcome” on 2026-09-17, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.

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This article does not take a side on a contested political question, so it has no leaning score. That is an answer rather than a gap: a match report or a rescue can be warmly or critically written without being left or right, and scoring it anyway is how approval of a subject gets recorded as a political position.

No political leaning scored for article 10763 · logged 2026-09-16

📰 Brazil Polls Predict Election Outcome

Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event. This is the one the site leads with.

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This article reads unscored and hedges 38% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.

Brazil's Lula regains narrow edge over Bolsonaro in BTG/Nexus poll different event · 75%

The Straits Times · 0.92 cosine similarity

⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 9 📰 publisher trust 59

“The articles describe different polls conducted by distinct organizations on separate days.”

The Straits Times · 504 article(s) · 1 correction(s) detected

Running correction rate · 1 correction(s)

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More on this subject from The Straits Times

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Brazilian CNT REUTERS SAO PAULO

Lula PERSON · 5× Bolsonaro PERSON · 4× CNT ORG · 3× Brazilian NORP · 2× Augusto Cury PERSON · 1× Flavio Bolsonaro PERSON · 1× Jair Bolsonaro PERSON · 1× Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva PERSON · 1× Ronaldo Caiado PERSON · 1× SAO PAULO GPE · 1×

• If there was a runoff, Lula would receive 47.3% of voter support, compared with 40% for the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, the poll said.

framing: mixed · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-09-16

🔮 Lula would beat Bolsonaro in a Brazilian runoff, CNT/MDA poll suggests

2026-09-16 · The Straits Times

Lula would beat Bolsonaro in a Brazilian runoff, CNT/MDA poll suggests · mixed framing

Lula would beat Bolsonaro in a Brazilian runoff, CNT/MDA poll suggests uncertain

Lula → beat → runoff

SAO PAULO, Sept 15 - Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva would beat right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro if they were in a second-round runoff in next month's election, according to a CNT/MDA poll released on Tuesday. uncertain

they → beat → Tuesday

• If there was a runoff, Lula would receive 47.3% of voter support, compared with 40% for the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, the poll said. asserted

poll → be → Bolsonaro

• In an August 11 poll, Lula led Senator Bolsonaro by 48% to 39.1%. asserted

Lula → lead → %

• In a first-round scenario, Lula would receive 40.5% of voter support, followed by Bolsonaro (30.4%), Augusto Cury (6%), Ronaldo Caiado (3%) and Renan Santos (2.7%), according to the poll. uncertain

Lula → receive → poll

• The previous first-round survey showed Lula at 42.4% and Bolsonaro at 28.7%. asserted

survey → show → %

• If no candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes in the October 4 first round, the two frontrunners advance to a runoff on October 25. asserted

frontrunners → win → October

• CNT surveyed 2,002 people from September 9 to 13 with a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points. asserted

CNT → survey → points

Lula would beat Bolsonaro in a Brazilian runoff, CNT/MDA poll suggests

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