A giant banner of Brazil’s incarcerated former president Jair Bolsonaro fluttered in the morning breeze as his eldest son, Flávio, touched down at an airfield on the fringe of a city that will soon help decide the future of one of the biggest democracies on earth.
asserted
that → incarcerate → earth
Brazil has no president and Brazil needs a president – and that president is Flávio Bolsonaro,” the far-right senator declared as he waded into the flock of supporters who had gathered to welcome him to Juiz de Fora, one of the largest cities in the battleground state of Minas Gerais.
asserted
who → have → Gerais
With less than a month before nearly 159 million Brazilians choose their next leader on 4 October, the election appears on a knife-edge, with the incumbent leftwing president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, and his challenger, Flávio Bolsonaro, neck-and-neck in the polls.
asserted
president → choose → polls
Bolsonaro’s campaign appears to have seized the momentum in recent weeks amid a slew of corruption scandals involving Lula’s son and the supreme court.
asserted
campaign → appear → son
That has prompted despair among progressives who fear their country could fall back into the hands of a radical rightwing movement that tried to grab power after the then-president, Jair Bolsonaro, lost the 2022 election to Lula.
uncertain
president → prompt → Lula
Last September, Jair Bolsonaro received a 27-year jail sentence for spearheading that botched coup – a verdict supporters insist was unjust.
asserted
supporters → receive → verdict
But the ex-president and his accomplices are likely to be freed if his son wins power – a prospect that delights the hardcore Bolsonaristas who turned out to greet Flávio Bolsonaro wearing yellow football shirts and headbands reading: “Lula out!”
asserted
who → free → Lula
“Today is a moment of joy,” said Ulisses Lima, 50, a cybersecurity specialist with a Jesus Christ pendant around his neck.
asserted
Lima → say → neck
“Flávio represents change.
asserted
Flávio → represent → change
He represents Brazil’s rescue from this socialist abyss we’ve spent so long warning about,” Lima added as supporters waited for the former president’s heir to arrive.
asserted
heir → represent → abyss
Nearby, another devotee, José Caldeira, fell to his knees and begged for divine intervention to get Bolsonaro out of house arrest.
asserted
devotee → fall → arrest
Amnesty and freedom for Bolsonaro!” Caldeira bellowed, raising his hands towards the sky.
asserted
Caldeira → bellow → sky
A third man, Davi Frederico, held a banner celebrating Donald Trump, who has been accused of trying to swing the election in Bolsonaro’s favour through economic and diplomatic pressure.
asserted
who → hold → pressure
“Make Liberals Cry Again,” it said.
asserted
it → make → ?
Juiz de Fora, an industrial and university city traditionally associated with the left, is also a key location for Brazil’s hard right.
asserted
Fora → associate → right
The city’s army headquarters was the launchpad for the 1964 coup that plunged Brazil into two decades of military rule.
asserted
that → plunge → rule
And it was in Juiz de Fora, on the eve of the 2018 election, that Jair Bolsonaro was stabbed in the gut while campaigning – an attack widely believed to have helped the former paratrooper seal his victory.
asserted
paratrooper → stab → victory
Bolsonaro’s shock win ushered in what, from a progressive perspective, were four abysmal years.
asserted
what → usher → perspective
Destruction of the Amazon rainforest and gun ownership skyrocketed, hundreds of thousands died during a Covid outbreak Bolsonaro was accused of mishandling, and the president’s authoritarian rhetoric and attacks on Brazil’s electronic voting system culminated in the 8 January 2023 riots in Brasília.
asserted
rhetoric → skyrocket → Brasília
The supreme court later called those disturbances part of a plot to “annihilate” the country’s democracy.
asserted
court → call → democracy
But the Bolsonaros still enjoy abundant support, and that devotion was visible as Flávio Bolsonaro’s motorcade crept towards the high street where his father was ambushed eight years ago.
asserted
father → enjoy → street
“Let’s get the left out!
asserted
’s → get → left
Let’s get these motherfuckers out!” one elderly woman shrieked as the senator passed by on top of a sound truck stamped with the word: “Jesus”.
asserted
senator → get → word
Other fans, many senior citizens, waved Brazil flags from windows or stood on the sidewalk flashing victory signs with their hands.
asserted
fans → wave → hands
“Barring some kind of leftwing trickery, Flávio Bolsonaro can already be considered president.
asserted
Bolsonaro → bar → trickery
All you have to do is take a look at the streets and social media
asserted
you → have → streets
,” claimed Nikolas Ferreira, an influential far-right congressman from Minas Gerais who has more than 9 million TikTok followers.
asserted
who → claim → followers
Alongside the enthusiasm, there were glimpses of the revulsion many Brazilians feel for the former president.
asserted
Brazilians → be → president
One leftwinger took to his balcony with a loudhailer to taunt the Bolsonaristas as they paraded through town.
asserted
they → take → town
“Trump! Trump! Get my daddy out of jail!” the dissenter jeered in reference to the US president’s attempts to help Bolsonaro escape punishment.
asserted
Bolsonaro → get → punishment
Minas Gerais, a mountainous mining and agricultural region that is larger than France and has 21 million inhabitants, is Brazil’s bellwether state.
asserted
that → have → inhabitants
Since democracy returned in the 1980s, no candidate has won the presidency without triumphing here.
asserted
candidate → return → presidency
In 2018, Jair Bolsonaro beat Lula’s candidate in Minas by more than 1.7m votes.
asserted
Bolsonaro → beat → votes
Four years later, Lula reclaimed the state by fewer than 50,000.
asserted
Lula → reclaim → 50,000
After landing in Minas last week, Flávio Bolsonaro said he was confident of clawing back the swing state, with one recent poll putting him ahead there.
asserted
poll → land → him
“[Lula] is a president who you look at and see the past,” the 45-year-old senator said of his 80-year-old adversary.
asserted
senator → look → adversary
“With Flávio you can be sure that when people look at him, they see a modern government and a government of the future.”
asserted
they → look → future
Thomas Traumann, a political analyst who has written a book about his polarised country, said the election was too close to call.
asserted
election → write → country
“It’s a coin flip,” said Traumann, who believed an unexpected scandal or last-minute “black swan” event could swing the election either way.
uncertain
scandal → ’ → election
On Friday, it emerged that Flávio Bolsonaro had been placed under police investigation over suspicions of corruption involving the funding of a big-budget biopic telling the story of the assassination attempt against his father in Juiz de Fora.
asserted
Bolsonaro → emerge → Fora
…and 20 more, not listed.
The Aporia
