Disillusioned Iowans could tank GOP's midterm chances as even a die-hard MAGA fan issues a damning snub of Trump-backed Ashley Hinson: 'A lot of them are liars'

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Cite

Churchill, V. (2026, October 17). Disillusioned Iowans could tank GOP's midterm chances as even a die-hard MAGA fan issues a damning snub of Trump-backed Ashley Hinson: 'A lot of them are liars'. Daily Mail. https://www.dailymail.com/news/article-16214763/Disillusioned-Iowa-GOP-midterm-Trump-liars.html?ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490&ito=1490

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Daily Mail · collected 2026-10-17 · by Victoria Churchill

Quick Summary

A Daily Mail survey finds that nearly two-thirds of Iowans are not planning to vote in next month’s midterms. The article highlights dissatisfaction among voters towards Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrats’ increased voter turnout. Travis Lawson, a Trump supporter, criticizes Hinson but remains loyal to the party, while Mindy, a 49-year-old healthcare worker, expresses disillusionment with politicians and negative advertising.Democrats appear more energized; Bill Vogel and his wife cite Trump's corruption as their reason for voting Democratic.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-10-17, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

AI analysis runs on qwen2.5:14b, locally

Story summary

As of October 2026, nearly two-thirds of Iowans surveyed by the Daily Mail have no plans to vote in the upcoming midterm elections. This shift could impact Republican Ashley Hinson's Senate race against Democrat Josh Turek, with Democrats appearing more energized than Republicans. In Fort Dodge, supporters of Hinson were enthusiastic at a get-out-the-vote event, but elsewhere in town, voters like Travis Lawson expressed dissatisfaction. Older Iowans such as Bill and Mary Kate Vogel, both in their 80s and Democrats, criticized President Trump's use of taxpayer money for personal projects. Younger voters like Sydney Rose, 19, are backing Turek due to his stance on funding public education. This disillusionment among Iowans may undermine the GOP's midterm chances despite Hinson being strongly backed by former President Trump.

Written for “Iowa Gop Midterm Challenges” on 2026-10-17, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The model judged this article politically coded and scored it -0.35, but 1 quote(s) could not be found in the article and the other 1 are attributed speech rather than the article's own narration, so the score is not published.
Written under an earlier scoring contract, which gave a paragraph rather than checkable quotes. Re-analysing this article replaces it.
Leaning score withheld for article 87104: no verified evidence · logged 2026-10-17

Story

📰 Iowa Gop Midterm Challenges
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 0% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
ABC News (US)
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 8% hedged 3 of 37 📰 publisher trust 59
“The articles discuss different aspects of voter behavior and sentiment leading up to midterm elections but describe distinct events.”
NPR
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 5% hedged 2 of 42 📰 publisher trust 60
“The articles discuss voter sentiment towards Trump but involve different states (Georgia and Iowa) and different time periods.”
Washington Examiner
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 5% hedged 1 of 19 📰 publisher trust 68
“The articles discuss different issues related to voter turnout for midterms but describe separate events happening in different locations and involving distinct contexts.”
BBC News
⚖️ Centre 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 5 📰 publisher trust 69
“The articles discuss similar themes of voter disillusionment but describe different reporting efforts and focus on distinct aspects of the election, suggesting they are not describing the exact same specific incident.”
Daily Mail
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 15 📰 publisher trust 64
“The articles discuss different aspects of the election dynamics and voter sentiment in Iowa but do not describe the same specific incident or occurrence.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
25
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
0%
0 of 25 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
withheld
no quote in the article backed the model's score
Publisher signals
64/100
Daily Mail's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-10-17 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

Daily Mail · 5969 article(s) · 15 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 15 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Victoria Churchill
31 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 However, 59 percent of likely statewide voters believed that Hinson would be elected in November.
🔮 He told supporters at the University of Northern Iowa on Thursday that he believes his race will be the tightest on the Senate map, potentially determinative in the battle for control of the chamber.
🔮 However, a US official said on Sunday that Trump and Rubio are 'extremely pissed off' by Guilfoyle's reported conduct and would likely decide on what action to take this week after Monday's Columbus Day holiday.
🔮 - Sign up HERE for the DC Insider Newsletter- our guide to what's rocking Washington, rattling the White House and setting tongues wagging on the Hill President Donald Trump would love to see Pennsylvania Democrat John Fetterman join the Republican Party.
🔮 Some were always expected to be nail-biters.
🔮 Iowa leans Republican, but Hinson could be negatively impacted by Democrat Rob Sand performing well in the gubernatorial race.
🔮 At a White House dinner in September, Trump laid a slew of backhanded compliments on Paxton, saying, 'you might not like the way he looks, you might not love his television interviews,' before praising him as the 'best attorney general' and adding 'that speaks a lot louder than the suit he's wearing that doesn't look so great.' Trump also said that Paxton 'can be a pain in the ass' during a visit to a truck plant in Denton, Texas last week. Still, at the Washington DC event last month, Paxton told lobbyists that messaging in a federal race often comes from others, leaving him stuck with decisions he cannot alter.
🔮 Democrats are projected to pick up at least 15 House seats and between one and five in the Senate, according to Cook Political Report analysis published last month.
🔮 Iran's parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf warned that the strait is set to remain closed until the US agrees to its terms.
🔮 'That I will go out with my family, my friends, I'll do it any way - I don't care if I'm registered or not, I'm going to try to cheat like hell like they do... and we are going to vote on November 3,' Trump added during his remarks last month.
Also by Victoria Churchill
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 31 articles by Victoria Churchill →

Topics

Democrats Fort Dodge Iowa Republican the Daily Mail

Subjects

Iowa GPE · 10× the Daily Mail ORG · 9× Democrats NORP · 8× Fort Dodge GPE · 6× Republicans NORP · 6× Trump PERSON · 5× Hinson PERSON · 3× Republican NORP · 3× Senate ORG · 2× Washington GPE · 2×

Narrative

His wife, Mary Kate, 80, presented Trump's use of taxpayer money to 'build monuments to himself' as one example of the 'corruption.' Bill and Mary Kate Vogel, both Democrats in their 80's voted on Wednesday on Story County hoping to take a stand against what they see as 'corruption' from President Donald Trump Sydney Rose, 19, a native of Marion, Iowa, is a future educator backing Josh Turek for the US Senate because she appreciates his stance on 'public money going to public schools'
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-17
🔮 However, 59 percent of likely statewide voters believed that Hinson would be elected in November.

Claims (25 extracted, 0 hedged)

- Sign up HERE for the DC Insider Newsletter- our guide to what's rocking Washington, rattling the White House and setting tongues wagging on the Hill Nearly two-thirds of Iowans who spoke to the Daily Mail this week have no plans to vote in next month’s midterms. The question is whose voters stay home. asserted
voters → sign → midterms
Iowa had swung from battleground to Republican stronghold in the Trump era, but Democrats are suddenly competitive in key races here, including the Senate contest between Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek. asserted
Democrats → swing → Hinson
The Daily Mail spent two days traveling in northern Iowa speaking not only with likely voters but also everyday citizens who repeatedly expressed dissatisfaction with the status quo in Washington. asserted
who → spend → Washington
Among likely voters, Democrats appeared much more energized, while Republicans were not automatically loyal backers of their party's candidate. asserted
Republicans → appear → candidate
Hinson's supporters brought the energy at a get-out-the-vote bus tour stop at the Decker Truck Line corporate headquarters and terminal in Fort Dodge, which the Daily Mail attended. asserted
Mail → bring → which
But a few miles away, in the town’s hollowed-out downtown of empty storefronts, the mood was very different. asserted
mood → hollow → storefronts
Travis Lawson, 36, lives on Social Security and disability. asserted
Lawson → live → Security
Travis Lawson spoke with the Daily Mail in Fort Dodge on Wednesday Mindy, a 49-year-old healthcare worker living in Fort Dodge, Iowa is not planning to vote this year He’s a Trump fan who ‘likes the way that they do stuff’ and plans to vote Republican. asserted
they → speak → Republican
Mindy, 49, a mother of two and a Fort Dodge resident who works in healthcare after graduating from a local two-year college program, told the Daily Mail that she is not planning to vote this year because when it comes to politicians, 'a lot of them are liars. asserted
lot → work → them
She was also put off by the slew of negative advertisements that she has seen on TV this cycle, as were several other voters who spoke with the Daily Mail. asserted
who → put → Mail
John Van Weef, from Waterloo, Iowa, who was in Fort Dodge visiting his children, told the Daily Mail that 'politicians are rigged,' and that the economy is 'poor' before gesturing to a crumbling alleyway behind him as evidence of mismanaged infrastructure investment. asserted
economy → visit → investment
Van Weef said he'd vote for himself rather than either party. asserted
he → say → himself
Democrats, by contrast, were noticeably out in large numbers on the first day of early voting on Wednesday, and the Daily Mail spoke to several of them outside polling sites in the cities of Nevada and Fort Dodge. asserted
Mail → speak → Nevada
Bill Vogel, 84, told the Daily Mail in Nevada that 'President Trump's corruption' was the main reason he is supporting Democrats this year. asserted
he → tell → Democrats
His wife, Mary Kate, 80, presented Trump's use of taxpayer money to 'build monuments to himself' as one example of the 'corruption.' Bill and Mary Kate Vogel, both Democrats in their 80's voted on Wednesday on Story County hoping to take a stand against what they see as 'corruption' from President Donald Trump Sydney Rose, 19, a native of Marion, Iowa, is a future educator backing Josh Turek for the US Senate because she appreciates his stance on 'public money going to public schools' asserted
money → present → schools
After the first day of early voting, more than 17,000 people had voted, with Democrats outpacing both Republicans and no-party voters. asserted
Democrats → vote → Republicans
Although tangible, the figure is not a shock, as Republicans do not typically vote early, even though the gap should increase before election day if more Democrats do. asserted
Democrats → vote → day
While nationally Democrats look more enthusiastic to vote than Republicans, the trend reverses in Iowa. asserted
trend → look → Iowa
When the sample moved from registered to likely voters, the Democratic lead also shrank in a recent Iowa poll conducted by Marist University. asserted
lead → move → University
CNN’s Iowa poll points the same way: likely voters in Iowa want Republicans to control the Senate, 53 percent to 46 percent, and CNN noted signs that Iowa offers a better playing field for Republicans than Ohio, where Trump has also won three times. asserted
Trump → want → Ohio
A poll released by Marist University Wednesday found Turek leading his opponent 48 percent to 45 percent. asserted
Turek → release → opponent
However, 59 percent of likely statewide voters believed that Hinson would be elected in November. asserted
Hinson → believe → November
Turek told his supporters on Thursday in Cedar Falls that 'young people... union workers, people in rural communities and farmers' would make the difference in his race. asserted
people → tell → race
Sydney Rose, 19, a native of Marion, Iowa, shared that she is backing Turek because she appreciates his stance on 'public money going to public schools,' as an education major who plans to teach in the Hawkeye State after graduation. asserted
who → share → graduation
As a younger voter, Rose also shared that she is 'trying to be optimistic' about the future, and believes that a vote for Turek is one to stop the United States from becoming a 'second or third-world country.' asserted
vote → share → States
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