While marquee races from Maine to Michigan get all the attention, and draw in a ton of money, a significant batch of lower-profile contests across the US could result in upsets.
uncertain
batch → get → upsets
Democrats have a strong edge heading into November’s US midterm elections, polls show.
asserted
polls → have → elections
In recent days, election prognosticators have shifted even more races in favor of Democrats .
asserted
prognosticators → shift → Democrats
Still, some races have openings for Republicans to pick off an incumbent Democrat, or win over voters for open seats.
asserted
Republicans → have → seats
Republicans are pouring money into these places in hopes of minimizing their losses.
asserted
Republicans → pour → losses
Mid-decade redistricting in red states also may help Republicans knock off some Democrats.
uncertain
Republicans → help → Democrats
Here are 10 under-the-radar races worth keeping an eye on.
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races → keep → eye
US Senate – New HampshireJohn Sununu arrives at senator Howard Pearl’s Fifth Annual Oktoberfest with his wife, Kitty, on 3 October 2026 in Loudon, New Hampshire.
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Sununu → arrive → Loudon
senator Jeanne Shaheen’s retirement leaves an open race, which Cook Political Report considers a tossup despite the expected blue wave.
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Report → leave → wave
That’s largely because Republican John Sununu comes from political royalty in the state: his dad and his brother were both governors, and he was a US senator himself until losing his seat to Shaheen in 2008.
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he → ’ → 2008
Chris Pappas, a US representative since 2019 now running as the Democratic nominee to succeed Shaheen in the Senate, was the first openly gay man to represent the state in Congress.
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Pappas → run → Congress
Democrats have the edge in this race, but New Hampshire voters are known to split tickets.
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voters → have → tickets
The state’s governor is a Republican, and Republicans control both chambers of the state legislature, but both of its US senators are now Democrats.
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both → control → senators
US Senate – KansasAdam Hamilton, the Democratic Kansas Senate candidate, listens to administrators at the Health Partnership Clinic as they discuss funding issues on 12 August 2026, in Olathe.
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they → listen → Olathe
Democrats beat the odds and win in Kansas , which hasn’t elected a Democrat to the US Senate since 1932?
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which → beat → 1932
It’s possible – both because of the strength of Democratic candidate and pastor Adam Hamilton, and a medical billing scandal for Republican incumbent Roger Marshall.
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It → ’ → Marshall
A New York Times investigation in September showed Marshall had sued more than 700 patients of his OB-GYN practice for unpaid bills, resulting in arrests for 81 of them who missed court dates.
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who → show → dates
Hamilton, the founder of the largest Methodist congregation in the US, won in a crowded Democratic primary earlier this year.
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Hamilton → win → primary
US Senate – MinnesotaMinnesota lieutenant governor Peggy Flanagan greets people as she arrives at a campaign event at a senior living facility on 9 October 2026 in St Paul.
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she → greet → Paul
Getty ImagesAn open seat after Democratic US senator Tina Smith’s retirement leaves Democrats trying to keep the midwestern state in their hands.
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seat → leave → hands
The race is looking a bit closer than expected.
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race → look → ?
Peggy Flanagan, the state’s lieutenant governor and the Democratic nominee, faces Michele Tafoya, a former NFL sideline reporter turned conservative media darling.
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Flanagan → face → Tafoya
Tafoya has shown strong fundraising and approves of some level of abortion access.
asserted
Tafoya → show → access
The state typically elects Democrats, but Flanagan – a progressive – could suffer because of fraud scandals in state public services under governor Tim Walz’s administration.
uncertain
Flanagan → elect → administration
Florida’s 13th congressional districtAnna Paulina Luna arrives at the Republican national convention on 9 September 2026 in Dallas, Texas.
asserted
Luna → arrive → Dallas
Election prognosticators have shifted the race from a likely win for Luna to just leaning toward her.
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prognosticators → shift → her
Leela Gray, the Democratic contender and a retired army brigadier general, has seen more money come in to support her bid.
asserted
money → see → bid
While Florida Republicans’ mid-decade redistricting made Luna’s district a bit redder, Democrats still think they have a shot at ousting her.
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they → make → her
Wisconsin’s first congressional districtRepresentative Bryan Steil leaves the office of the speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, on Capitol Hill on 17 November 2025 in Washington DC.
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Steil → leave → DC
Republican incumbent Bryan Steil has overperformed in previous cycles.
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Steil → overperforme → cycles
This time it’s looking close, however, and the national environment could help Democratic contender and registered nurse Mitchell Berman flip the seat from red to blue.
6.
uncertain
Berman → look → blue
Alabama’s second congressional districtShomari Figures speaks on the final night of the Democratic national convention in Chicago, Illinois, on 22 August 2024.
asserted
Figures → speak → August
incumbent Shomari Figures is fighting to hold on to his district after mid-decade redistricting enabled by the US supreme court’s gutting of the Voting Rights Act made it more favorable to Republicans – and carved out his home town of Mobile.
asserted
it → fight → Mobile
Republican Rhett Marques, on paper, has a strong edge in the newly redrawn district.
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Marques → have → district
Figures first won the area in 2024, when it was then a newly drawn majority-Black district.
asserted
it → win → 2024
New Mexico’s second congressional districtRepresentative Gabe Vasquez, a Democrat from New Mexico, departs after a vote at the US Capitol in Washington DC on 15 July 2026.
asserted
Vasquez → depart → July
Photograph: Graeme Sloan/Bloomberg via Getty ImagesIncumbent Democratic representative Gabe Vasquez is fending off big spending by Republicans, with the party set to dump millions of dollars into ads to boost former police officer Greg Cunningham, the Republican contender.
asserted
party → fend → Cunningham
The southern New Mexico district is evenly divided, and Vasquez won in 2024, when Donald Trump narrowly won the district.
asserted
Trump → divide → district
Vasquez first captured the district in 2022, when he defeated the Republican incumbent.
8.
asserted
he → capture → incumbent
Texas’s 34th congressional districtRe-election campaign signs are displayed for representative Vicente Gonzalez outside a polling place on 5 November 2024 in Brownsville, Texas.
asserted
signs → display → Brownsville
…and 10 more, not listed.
The Aporia
