Democratic enthusiasm in the 2026 primaries and what it could mean for midterm elections
ABC News analyzed relative partisan turnout in the primary elections.
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News → mean → elections
Recent polling suggests that Democrats have momentum as we enter the home stretch ahead of the high-stakes 2026 midterm elections as Democrats say they are more likely to vote and more enthusiastic about casting their ballots.
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they → suggest → ballots
An ABC News analysis finds that what Democrats are telling pollsters is consistent with their turnout in this year's primaries.
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telling → find → primaries
Specifically, Democratic participation significantly increased from previous levels in primary contests relative to Republicans.
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participation → increase → Republicans
And Democratic levels of primary voting relative to Republicans appear to be greater than any recent midterm election in the states that could determine control of the Senate.
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that → appear → Senate
ABC News found that the relative turnout of Democratic primary voters to Republican primary voters increased in many states between 2022 and 2026.
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turnout → find → 2022
Relative turnout is the number of Democratic votes divided by the number of Republican votes in an election, in this case, state primaries.
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turnout → divide → case
The change in relative Democratic turnout is calculated by subtracting the 2022 level of relative turnout from the 2026 level.
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change → calculate → level
Democrats’ relative turnout increased in many different states and political environments.
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turnout → increase → states
In some states, the relative size increased when Democrats held a competitive primary in 2026 and Republicans did not.
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Republicans → increase → 2026
For example, in August's Wisconsin gubernatorial primary, David Crowley won a hard-fought and expensive Democratic contest narrowly.
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Crowley → win → contest
On the Republican side, a Trump-endorsed sitting member of Congress, Tom Tiffany, secured a 90-point victory.
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member → endorse → victory
In this instance, the number of Democratic voters increased from 2022 when the party held less competitive statewide primaries.
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party → increase → primaries
At the same time, the number of Republican votes decreased from 2022 when Republicans held a competitive gubernatorial primary.
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Republicans → decrease → primary
In 2022, Democratic primary turnout was only 0.72 times the size of Republican primary turnout, yielding an increase of 0.89 in their relative turnout.
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turnout → yield → turnout
Still, in states where both parties held competitive primaries, Democrats had significant relative turnout gains as well.
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Democrats → hold → gains
For example, in Texas both the Republicans and Democrats held extremely high-profile U.S. Senate primaries.
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Republicans → hold → primaries
Relative Democratic primary turnout increased in Texas from 0.55 times the size of Republican primary turnout in 2022 to 1.07 times the size of Republican primary turnout in 2026.
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turnout → increase → 2026
Even in a red state like Idaho where gubernatorial Republican candidates have out-raised Democratic candidates by nearly a factor of 10, relative Democratic primary turnout increased from its 2022 level.
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turnout → raise → level
All key battleground states for control of the Senate stand out in this analysis as having increases in the relative size of Democratic voters in the primary electorate.
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states → stand → electorate
These states include open seat races in New Hampshire, North Carolina, Minnesota and Iowa.
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states → include → Hampshire
Relative Democratic turnout decreased in only three states: Oklahoma, Kentucky and Oregon.
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turnout → decrease → states
In Oregon, for example, Democratic primary voters still outnumbered Republican primary voters by a factor of 1.15, but this advantage was down from 1.30 in 2022.
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advantage → outnumber → 2022
This shift coincided with a competitive Republican primary and an uncompetitive Democratic primary for governor in 2026, while both parties held competitive gubernatorial primaries in 2022.
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parties → coincide → 2022
Although Kentucky and Oklahoma exhibited decreases in relative Democratic turnout, more people voted in 2026 Democratic primaries than 2022 Democratic primaries in those states.
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people → exhibit → states
The relative Democratic turnout decreased because the increase in Democratic votes this year were eclipsed by greater increases in Republican turnout from 2022, likely due to highly competitive open Republican primary races for U.S. Senate and governor, respectively.
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increase → decrease → Senate
Not only did relative Democratic primary turnout increase from 2022, but the level of relative Democratic primary turnout reached 20-year highs for midterms in several key states.
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level → increase → states
ABC News gathered Democratic and Republican midterm primary voting data in all states dating back to 2006.
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News → gather → 2006
In 16 states in 2026, Democratic primary participation was at its strongest relative to Republican primary participation going back to 2006.
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participation → go → 2006
These states include key battleground states Georgia, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, South Carolina and Texas.
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states → include → states
While this analysis does not predict what will happen in the general election, it found that, in general, the party with the greater average turnout advantage in the previous five midterm elections has won more seats in the House and the Senate.
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party → predict → House
The upcoming midterm elections will determine control of Congress as Republicans hold a slim majority in both the House and the Senate.
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Republicans → determine → House
Methodology:
The analysis was conducted in states where the statewide midterm primary with the most votes was contested by more than one candidate for both parties in 2026 going back to 2006.
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primary → conduct → 2006
Data were gathered from each state’s secretary of state or equivalent website for primary elections from the previous 20 years.
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Data → gather → years
ABC News analysts created a measure of relative Democratic primary turnout by dividing the number of Democratic votes in the statewide primary election with the most votes by the number of Republican votes in the statewide primary election with the most votes.
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analysts → create → votes
Change measures were calculated by subtracting the 2022 relative Democratic primary turnout value from the 2026 relative Democratic primary turnout value.
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measures → calculate → value
States with top two or top four primaries that allow candidates from both parties to compete in the same primary election, such as Alaska, California and Washington, were omitted from this analysis.
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candidates → allow → analysis
The Aporia
