It’s indisputable that the political polarization of our time has reduced (and confused) the influence of economic conditions on US elections.
asserted
polarization → ’ → elections
In September of 2024, in the waning weeks of the Joe Biden presidency, 65% of Republicans believed the US economy was getting worse.
asserted
economy → wan → Republicans
About six months later, as Donald Trump launched a trade war on the rest of the world with his “liberation day” tariffs, the share of Republican pessimists had dropped to 33%.
asserted
share → launch → %
It’s hard to detect a reason for this in the economic data.
asserted
It → ’ → data
Annual consumer price inflation fell from 2.4% to 2.3% between the two polls.
asserted
inflation → fall → polls
The unemployment rate ticked up from 4.1% to 4.2%.
asserted
rate → tick → %
Indeed, Democrats disagreed sharply with their Republican neighbors: from the last Harris poll of the Biden era to the first under Trump, the share who thought the US economy was worsening jumped from 28% to 73%.
asserted
economy → disagree → %
As the midterm elections loom into focus, suggesting a stark Republican defeat, Trump and his minions are hoping that this ideological lens, shaping economic reality to fit political preferences, can prevent an electoral bloodbath in November.
asserted
lens → loom → November
Maybe Trump can somehow dupe the Maga base into believing that “we’re growing at a faster rate than we’ve ever grown before.”
asserted
we → dupe → rate
From three weeks out, it seems pretty clear that the gambit is not going to work.
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gambit → seem → weeks
Polling by Harris for the Guardian suggests that the economy is looking pretty bad even for their most loyal acolytes.
uncertain
economy → suggest → acolytes
The September reading of the consumer price index, which recorded a spike in annual inflation to 3.7%, had not yet been published when Harris performed its latest round of polling earlier this month.
asserted
Harris → record → polling
Still, the pollster reported that 38% of Republicans believe the economy is worsening.
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economy → report → Republicans
The pattern is evident among cohorts that have proven historical Republican bulwarks.
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that → prove → bulwarks
Rural Americans, loyal Republican allies for decades, are being battered by Trump’s policies.
asserted
Americans → batter → policies
They were hit not only by his trade war, largely barred from China’s markets.
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They → hit → markets
They have been hammered by the rising price of diesel and fertilizer, for which they can thank Trump’s war in Iran.
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they → hammer → Iran
They have been hamstrung by Trump’s raids against the many immigrants in their labor force.
asserted
They → hamstring → force
And they feel roundly attacked by Trump’s attempt to tame rising beef prices by lowering tariffs on imported meat.
asserted
they → feel → meat
Unsurprisingly, this is showing up in the polling.
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this → show → polling
Sixty-four percent of rural Americans polled this month said the economy was getting worse, compared to only 52% of city dwellers.
asserted
economy → poll → dwellers
Six percent more rural residents think the economy is worsening than in September 2024, during the last poll of the Biden administration.
asserted
economy → think → administration
White Americans, another pillar of Republican support, are also turning sour: 61% believe the economy is getting worse, up from 48% in September of 2024.
asserted
economy → turn → 2024
The share of men who believe the economy is getting worse increased from 46% to 52% over those two years.
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economy → believe → years
Bill Clinton famously won the presidency in 1992 campaigning on: “It’s the economy, stupid.”
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It → win → 1992
For much of the 20th century the state of the economy was critical in deciding presidential and congressional elections.
asserted
state → decide → elections
Voters blamed or rewarded incumbents for the state of the economy.
asserted
Voters → blame → economy
The relationship was always moderated by partisan preferences, though.
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relationship → moderate → preferences
And it has weakened dramatically as the electorate has set on divergent ideological paths, ultimately splitting into rival camps with diametrically opposed perceptions of reality.
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electorate → weaken → reality
“The economic perceptions of Democrats and Republicans have polarized relative to Independents and that this polarization is not asymmetric in magnitude,” argued a recent study by political scientists from Stanford and New York University.
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study → polarize → Stanford
They estimate the partisan gap in economic perceptions rose “from about 20 percentage-points at the beginning of the Bush II administration to a maximum of 73 percentage-points during the (first) Trump administration”.
asserted
gap → estimate → administration
Partisanship doesn’t just affect voters’ perceptions of the economy.
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Partisanship → affect → economy
As reported by political scientists at Bucknell University and Texas A&M University, polarization reduces policymakers’ incentive to tailor policy to deliver broad economic prosperity.
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polarization → report → prosperity
“If voters are relatively unwilling to cross party lines to reward good economic performance or punish economic decline, then elected officials can pursue policies that distribute economic benefits narrowly without affecting their chances of re-election,” they wrote.
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they → cross → election
“This might include aiming policy to deliver rewards to co-partisans, donors, or even to the office-holder himself or herself.”
uncertain
This → include → holder
This would explain Trump’s tactics to a T. Not only has he taken to scaring voters with culture war stuff – variously branding Democrats as apologists of Vladimir Lenin and claiming that they want to change the sex of young children.
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they → explain → children
He seems to believe that he can sway the electorate by doing violence to groups that his Maga base dislikes, like immigrants and the “undeserving” poor.
asserted
base → seem → immigrants
Maybe they will pay less attention to the cost of living, and to the Trump family’s self-dealing.
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they → pay → dealing
It seems too late, though.
asserted
It → seem → ?
Voters’ opposition to Trump’s economic stewardship is too well established, having built up since the “liberation day” tariffs through countless destructive decisions over the last 21 months.
asserted
opposition → establish → months
…and 2 more, not listed.
The Aporia
