For political observers, the Toronto mayoral election has been going on for months.
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election → go → months
But for the general public, the race gets underway this week.
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race → get → public
Voters will cast their ballots in a little over six weeks, deciding whether to give incumbent Mayor Olivia Chow another term or opt for one of the main challengers: Councillor Brad Bradford or former federal minister Chris Alexander, a last-minute addition to the race.
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Voters → cast → race
Before they can make that decision, however, they will need to consider both Chow’s record and what she is promising for a second term as mayor.
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she → make → mayor
One reason the race is only firing up now is that the period from May (when registrations opened) to October is a long campaign.
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registrations → fire → October
People tune out during the summer.
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People → tune → summer
It’s natural to consider the stretch after Labour Day the real campaign, with the earlier months serving as a warm-up act.
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months → ’ → act
The other reason, though, is that the incumbent has declined to campaign until now.
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incumbent → decline → ?
While Chow registered for re-election at the end of May to make her intentions known, she’s so far done little to no campaigning.
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she → register → campaigning
This contrasts with Bradford, who has been vigorously campaigning since registering in May.
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who → contrast → May
Opinion polls have consistently shown Chow in the lead with Bradford in a close second.
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polls → show → second
But what will they show now that she’s ramping things up?
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she → show → things
Once she starts campaigning, everything changes.
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everything → start → ?
Chow’s lead could significantly widen.
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lead → widen → ?
Or, if she fails to meet the moment and doesn’t read the electorate’s pulse, she could fall behind.
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she → fail → pulse
The other month, I watched Chow deliver a speech to Scarborough Business Association members that was clearly designed to test out campaign themes.
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that → watch → themes
The mayor focused on reducing 911 response times and keeping taxes low.
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mayor → focus → taxes
These aren’t themes you’d expect from a longstanding NDP politician, especially one who has spent the past three years raising property taxes significantly higher than inflation.
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who → expect → inflation
Chow has since confirmed that lower tax increases will be her goal for a second term, arguing that the first round of larger increases was necessary to fix the budget and that lower rates can now be enjoyed.
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rates → confirm → budget
This is the municipal version of how provincial and federal leaders always manage to drum up a balanced budget right when re-election time comes around.
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time → manage → budget
Let’s see if the voters buy it.
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voters → see → it
She was first elected to public office over 40 years ago as a school board trustee.
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She → elect → trustee
Long before her late husband Jack Layton was federal NDP leader, he ran for mayor of Toronto in 1991, and Chow won a council seat that year.
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Chow → run → seat
Chow’s mayoralty didn’t come out of nowhere.
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mayoralty → come → ?
It’s been decades in the making and the prize is not something she and her team will give up easily.
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she → give → making
Her campaign slogan, unveiled Wednesday, is a “caring, affordable, and safe city.”
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slogan → unveil → ?
It could just be to pivot to the centre, say little and lean into the incumbent advantage.
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It → pivot → advantage
After all, Bradford’s aggressive campaign to unseat Chow goes against what has become a local political truism in Toronto — that an incumbent mayor can’t be beat.
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mayor → unseat → Toronto
Chow was elected just over three years ago in a by-election triggered by John Tory’s sudden resignation.
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Chow → elect → resignation
That campaign lasted three months and about 10 major candidates sought the leadership of the country’s largest city.
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candidates → last → city
One reason so many candidates put forward serious campaigns was that, without an incumbent, the race was anyone’s to win.
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race → put → incumbent
Recent Toronto political history shows that, since megacity amalgamation in the 1990s, few serious candidates have stepped forward to challenge an incumbent mayor.
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candidates → show → mayor
When Tory ran for re-election in 2018, the only serious challenger came in second with 24 per cent of the vote.
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challenger → run → vote
Then when he ran for his third term in 2022, he was virtually unopposed.
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he → run → 2022
This pattern wasn’t unique to Tory; similar scenarios played out during the re-elections of the right-leaning Mel Lastman and the left-leaning David Miller.
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scenarios → play → Lastman
From now until the election, I look forward to offering regular dispatches examining the campaign’s issues, personalities and themes.
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I → look → issues
My first regular gig with the National Post was covering the iconic 2010 election won by Rob Ford and then I experienced the 2023 mayoral election as one of the leading candidates, so this is familiar terrain.
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this → cover → candidates
Anthony Furey is a former journalist and past Toronto mayoral candidate who now works in corporate consulting.
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who → work → consulting
The Aporia
