Last month, US President Donald Trump revived a charm offensive aimed at Pyongyang by drastically scaling back joint US military exercises with South Korea and pouring praise on North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
asserted
Trump → revive → Un
The US president said the North Korean dictator "has always treated me with great respect."
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dictator → say → respect
North Korea's response to Trump's overtures has been markedly less enthusiastic, ranging from firing a barrage of missiles to publicly denying Trump's claims that Kim has responded "very positively" to a request for talks.
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Kim → range → talks
This week, as the US and South Korea, along with Japan, kicked off a five-day military drill, there was no mention of any pullback from Washington, nor any sign of diplomatic progress with Pyongyang.
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US → kick → Pyongyang
Instead, Kim on Monday commissioned a naval destroyer, while again emphasizing North Korea must establish a "powerful and reliable nuclear war deterrent" and strengthen "maritime defense."
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Korea → commission → defense
Kim also said North Korea would soon unveil a "significant" naval advancement.
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Korea → say → advancement
No urgency for deal with US
Unlike the summit diplomacy of Trump's first term, Kim's dismissive stance comes at a time when North Korea has alternatives to a grand bargain with the United States.
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Korea → come → States
There is no longer the same sense of urgency in Pyongyang to get back to the negotiating table with Washington," Joon Ha Park, a correspondent at Korea Risk Group in Seoul, told DW.
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Park → be → DW
"North Korea now has a treaty-based alliance with Moscow and is drawing closer to Beijing, while its military capabilities have expanded significantly.
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capabilities → have → Beijing
That's why a single reduction in ROK-US military exercises is not enough for Pyongyang to be swayed," he added, referring to military ties between South Korea and the US.
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he → sway → Korea
Kim rides high
Park agrees that Kim is arguably in his strongest position since taking power in 2011.
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Kim → rid → 2011
Just six years ago, amid crippling sanctions and the coronavirus pandemic, an emotional Kim stood at the lectern marking the 75th anniversary of the Korean Workers' Party and expressed regret for having failed the North Korean people.
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Kim → stand → people
Fast forward to today, and North Korea's economy appears to be on a stronger footing.
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economy → fast → footing
Estimates released last year by South Korea's central bank showed the economy expanded by 3.7% in 2024, its fastest rate of growth in eight years.
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economy → release → years
Kim has brought North Korea closer to Russia and China than the traditionally isolated country has been in decades.
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country → bring → decades
This week, both Moscow and Beijing sent messages marking North Korea's 78th founding anniversary and praising the strategic importance of their deepening partnerships with Pyongyang.
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Moscow → send → Pyongyang
Kim's recent spate of good fortune began in 2023 after a summit with Vladimir Putin in Russia's far east.
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spate → begin → east
The meeting opened the door for North Korea delivering arms to help Russia fight the Ukraine war, with Moscow sending back aid.
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Moscow → open → aid
Since then, Pyongyang has heavily ramped up industrial military production, buoyed by fresh financing that skirts international sanctions.
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that → ramp → sanctions
Beijing responds to the Russia-North Korea alliance
China, North Korea's traditional benefactor, quickly took notice of the growing alignment between Moscow and Pyongyang, but initially kept its distance.
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China → respond → distance
"The war in Ukraine has opened up a crucial lifeline for the (North Korean) regime, delivering weapons, ammunitions and soldiers to Russia in return for cash, foodstuff and ostensibly advanced military technology," Alexander Lipke, policy fellow with the Asia Program at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), told DW.
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Lipke → open → DW
"These warming ties with Russia have also alarmed China, which is also actively attempting to cement its position as Pyongyang's preeminent partner," he added.
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he → warm → partner
By 2025, Russia and North Korea's ever closer ties forced Beijing to pivot and showcase its leading role among the three countries.
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ties → force → countries
In September that year, Kim was invited to the "Victory Day" celebrations in Beijing, and for the first time, stood publicly on stage alongside Xi and Putin.
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Kim → invite → Xi
For a regime known for its international isolation, Kim standing shoulder to shoulder with the leaders of Russia and China was a major milestone.
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Kim → know → Russia
This was again the case when in June 2026, Xi's first foreign trip of the year took him to Pyongyang.
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trip → take → Pyongyang
Notably, any mention of "denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula" was omitted from communiques following these high-level meetings, despite the phrase previously being part of boilerplate diplomatic language from Beijing and Moscow.
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phrase → omit → Beijing
This diplomatic softening comes as North Korea aggressively takes steps to ramp up its nuclear program.
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Korea → come → program
In February 2026, Kim said North Korea's status as a nuclear weapons state was "irreversible," while calling for the country's nuclear force to be expanded.
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force → say → state
Recent analysis of satellite imagery suggests increased activity at known North Korean nuclear sites.
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analysis → suggest → sites
Pyongyang has also insisted on US recognition as a nuclear weapons state as a precondition for any talks with Washington, while emphasizing that any future summits must omit language on "denuclearization."
North Korea is estimated to have nearly 60 nuclear warheads, which is double the 20-30 warheads Pyongyang is thought to have possessed during Trump's last diplomatic episode with Kim in 2018 and 2019.
"North Korea is no longer looking for talks centered on denuclearization or even traditional arms control.
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Korea → insist → denuclearization
It increasingly wants recognition, implicitly or otherwise, as a nuclear weapons state," said Park from the Korea Risk Group.
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Park → want → Group
He added that any Trump summit without denuclearization included as part of the official agenda "could be portrayed by Pyongyang both domestically and internationally as implicit US acceptance of North Korea's nuclear status.
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summit → add → status
"
Sanctions don't matter anymore?
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Sanctions → matter → ?
Since its first nuclear test in 2006, North Korea has been subject to a strict sanctions regime, with the UN Security Council having passed nine sanctions resolutions aimed at restricting exports, along with asset freezes.
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Council → pass → freezes
The last package was passed in 2017.
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package → pass → 2017
At that point, it was combined with pressure and fiery rhetoric from the first Trump administration, raising tensions on the Korean Peninsula.
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it → combine → Peninsula
Kim was under heavy economic pressure and seeking sanctions relief in return for concessions on his nuclear program.
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Kim → seek → program
But that moment has now long passed.
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moment → pass → ?
"North Korea's diplomatic situation has vastly improved, reducing the pressure to come to the table to cut a deal with the US," said Lipke, adding that "independent sanctions enforcement has widely collapsed," with Russia and China no longer actively pursuing their non-proliferation stance of previous decades.
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Russia → improve → decades
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