When we think of North Korea’s nuclear weapons, most people probably picture ballistic missiles launched from land.
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people → think → land
But North Korea’s nuclear capabilities may no longer be confined to land.
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capabilities → confine → land
On Sept. 6, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un attended the commissioning ceremony of the country’s new 5,000-ton destroyer, the Kang Kon, in Wonsan.
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Un → attend → Wonsan
North Korea did not present the ship as simply another naval vessel.
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Korea → present → vessel
Kim said the destroyer would form part of the country’s national nuclear response system and emphasized its ability to deliver devastating retaliatory strikes against an enemy.
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destroyer → say → enemy
This represents more than the modernization of the North Korean navy.
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This → represent → navy
It signals that North Korea is expanding the arena in which it intends to exercise nuclear deterrence: the sea.
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it → signal → deterrence
The Kang Kon is the second new destroyer commissioned by North Korea this year.
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Kon → commission → Korea
In June, the country commissioned the Choe Hyon, a vessel of the same class.
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country → commission → class
The Kang Kon is being assigned to the Eastern Fleet, facing the waters where North Korea encounters the naval forces of the United States, South Korea, and Japan.
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Korea → assign → States
By deploying a destroyer that Kim has described as part of the nuclear response system, Pyongyang may be signaling its intention to extend nuclear deterrence into the waters surrounding the Korean Peninsula.
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Pyongyang → deploy → Peninsula
One point, however, must be made clear.
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point → make → ?
There is no confirmed evidence that North Korea has actually placed a nuclear warhead aboard the Kang Kon.
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Korea → be → Kon
Pyongyang has not publicly specified what nuclear weapons, if any, would be deployed on the vessel.
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weapons → specify → vessel
What matters is that Kim has explicitly described the ship as part of North Korea’s nuclear response system.
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Kim → matter → system
Whether the ship currently carries a nuclear weapon is one question.
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carries → carry → weapon
North Korea’s declared intention to make naval forces part of its nuclear strategy is another.
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forces → declare → strategy
That distinction matters.
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distinction → matter → ?
Land-based missiles have launch sites and movement patterns that can be monitored to some degree.
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that → base → degree
Naval forces, by contrast, operate across a much larger area.
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forces → operate → area
If combined with submarines, maritime nuclear capabilities could further increase the survivability and possible surprise of a nuclear force.
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capabilities → combine → force
This may help explain why Kim has placed increasing emphasis on naval modernization.
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Kim → help → modernization
Kim has already called for the development of a nuclear-armed navy and has pursued naval modernization that includes the development of a nuclear-powered submarine.
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that → call → submarine
He has also indicated that Pyongyang will unveil further plans for strengthening its naval forces in the future.
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Pyongyang → indicate → future
So, what comes next?
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what → come → ?
It would be difficult to assume that North Korea’s naval expansion will stop with a few new destroyers.
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expansion → assume → destroyers
If Pyongyang succeeds in extending its nuclear response system from surface vessels to submarines, the nuclear deterrence environment on the Korean Peninsula could become even more complicated.
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environment → succeed → Peninsula
More importantly, North Korea’s approach to nuclear weapons itself appears to be changing.
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approach → appear → weapons
Nuclear weapons are no longer being presented simply as a last resort in the event of war.
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weapons → present → war
Pyongyang is increasingly seeking to integrate nuclear capabilities with different military platforms, using them to deter the U.S., South Korea, and Japan from taking military action.
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Pyongyang → seek → action
If that happens, monitoring and responding to North Korea’s nuclear capabilities will become considerably more difficult.
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monitoring → happen → capabilities
South Korea and the U.S. may no longer be able to focus primarily on signs of missile launches.
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Korea → focus → launches
Naval vessels, submarines, naval bases, and movements at sea will increasingly need to be considered as part of the nuclear deterrence equation.
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vessels → need → equation
For years, North Korea has emphasized one basic fact: It is a nuclear-armed state.
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It → emphasize → fact
What we are seeing now may be the next stage.
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seeing → see → What
The question is no longer simply how many nuclear weapons North Korea possesses, but where it can deploy them.
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it → possess → them
If North Korea’s nuclear forces remain primarily land-based, the nuclear threat on the Korean Peninsula has a relatively identifiable shape.
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threat → remain → shape
But once nuclear capabilities move toward the sea, that picture changes.
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picture → move → sea
What Kim displayed at the commissioning ceremony of the Kang Kon may, therefore, have been more than a single warship.
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displayed → display → warship
North Korea’s nuclear weapons are going to sea.
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weapons → go → sea
…and 2 more, not listed.
The Aporia
