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Nate Silver's warning about midterm election forecasts: As we approach Labor Day, which marks the traditional start of midterm campaigns, some people believe that voters only pay attention to politics after this date. However, Nate Silver, founder of the Silver Bulletin, argues that this narrative is outdated and doesn't apply to congressional elections. In fact, polls have been quite steady since August in his FLIPR model, which suggests that midterm races tend not to change much between Labor Day and Election Day.
Donald Trump's erratic behavior ahead of midterms: Meanwhile, William Kristol, a commentator at The Bulwark, notes that the midterms are now just 56 days away. He highlights President Donald Trump's bizarre social media posts over the weekend, including AI-generated memes and images, which his niece described as "decompensating in real time". This erratic behavior may be an attempt to exhaust voters ahead of the election.
Written for “US Midterm Election Forecasts” on 2026-09-08,
grounded in this article and the 1 other(s) covering the same event.
I trust you all had a better Labor Day weekend than Donald Trump.
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you → trust → Trump
On Sunday the president of the United States fired off more than sixty social media posts, each more bizarre than the last.
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each → fire → last
They included frenzied rants, manic boasts, personal attacks, crazy links, lunatic messages, and surreal AI-generated memes and images.
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They → include → rants
They were often weirdly dystopian—Trump nuking the Earth from orbit from a space station, Trump with giant robot bodyguards as fires burned.
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fires → nuke → bodyguards
His niece, Mary Trump, a psychologist, remarked Sunday evening that “Donald is decompensating in real time.”
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Donald → remark → time
The post that particularly caught Mary’s attention was an AI-produced upside-down map of Iran molded into Donald Trump’s profile.
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that → catch → profile
Things didn’t get better on Monday.
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Things → get → Monday
Trump continued to decompensate.
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Trump → continue → ?
A spate of fifteen posts within five minutes Monday morning ended with the president offering holiday good wishes:
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president → end → wishes
Happy Labor Day to all, including the Radical Left Lunatics, Communists, and Dumocrats who will do anything possible to destroy our Country.
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who → include → Country
These Deranged People, after fighting for 10 years, should finally acknowledge that your Favorite President (ME!), knows how to WIN!
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President → fight → years
They should be exhausted by now but, sadly, they’re not.
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they → exhaust → ?
They’re going to give it one last shot at ruining America, but we’re not going to let that happen.
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that → go → America
We’re going to win the Midterms, BIG, and SAVE AMERICA!
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We → go → AMERICA
Trump seems to admit what it was that had gotten under his skin.
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that → seem → skin
His critics “should be exhausted by now.”
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critics → exhaust → ?
But, “sadly, they’re not.”
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they → ’re → ?
This admission should cheer us all up.
But not too much.
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admission → cheer → us
It’s not a good thing that we have an unhinged president with more than two years left in his term, and with loyalists manning the top tiers of our government determined to carry out his authoritarian wishes, including to subvert free and fair elections.
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loyalists → ’ → elections
On the other hand, it is good that even Trump has to admit that his critics aren’t exhausted.
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critics → have → hand
And it is good, as Trump doesn’t admit but as he surely knows, that their ranks are growing.
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ranks → admit → ?
That our ranks are growing.
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ranks → grow → ?
On Saturday, the New York Times reported Gallup’s finding that “The share of Americans who associate themselves with the Democratic Party has grown significantly over the past year.”
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who → report → year
Indeed, “the latest data shows Democrats with a 10-percentage-point advantage over Republicans when voters are asked which party they identify with and when independent voters are asked which party they lean toward.
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they → show → party
In 2024, Republicans and Republican-leaning independents held a small edge over Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents.
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Republicans → lean → Democrats
Now Democrats’ advantage is approaching their margins during their victorious waves of 2006 and 2008.
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advantage → approach → 2006
Then on Sunday, the Financial Times reported that their latest survey showed Trump’s approval rating, which in their polls had oscillated between 34 and 37 percent approval all year, had now dipped to 32 percent.
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which → report → percent
The public is moving in the right direction.
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public → move → direction
They’re doing so despite the continued complicity at worst, and silence at best, of so many of the elites who continue to suck up to Trump.
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who → do → Trump
To their credit, the organizers of the successful and important No Kings protests are stepping up again to help.
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organizers → step → protests
This morning they announced plans for “No Kings: Vote Early” events on October 17.
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they → announce → October
As one of the No Kings organizers, Ezra Levin, explained,
We are headed into an important point in a democracy, which is whether the people stand up and refuse to allow an authoritarian to consolidate power.
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authoritarian → explain → power
And the way to do that in a democracy is by exercising your right to vote and by exercising your right to organize to prevent any sabotage in that election.
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way → do → election
The goal before was to send a message and recruit volunteers to do more civic engagement work.
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goal → send → work
The goal this time is to not just send a message.
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goal → send → message
[It is] to take back power for the people through the biggest early vote that we’ve ever seen in this country, and to prepare a nationwide force to push back against the sabotage that comes our way.
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that → take → sabotage
The goal is no longer to send a message.
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goal → send → message
It’s to take back power.
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It → ’ → power
AROUND THE BULWARK
Trump Is Turning a Bad Midterm Into a Republican Catastrophe…
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Trump → turn → Catastrophe
BILL KRISTOL joins TIM MILLER on The Bulwark Daily to revisit the run-up to the midterms in 2006 and 1994, two major wave election cycles where the bottom just fell out from under the party in power.
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bottom → join → power
…and 25 more, not listed.
