Grandpa Trump Is Getting Desperate

Read the original at The Bulwark ↗
The Bulwark · collected 2026-10-06 · by William Kristol commentary

Quick Summary

Bill Kristol discusses how former President Donald Trump is showing signs of desperation as he increasingly focuses on influencing Senate races like the one in South Carolina against Democratic nominee Annie Andrews, using inflammatory rhetoric and personal attacks. The article notes that Trump's involvement appears aimed at rallying his base ahead of midterms but also highlights the ethical issues surrounding such tactics.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-10-06, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

AI analysis runs on qwen2.5:14b, locally

Story summary

In early October, Donald Trump held a unique midterm rally in Dallas to boost Republican voter turnout ahead of the November 3 elections. Despite Trump’s claims of its success, polls since then show that Democrats gained momentum. The RealClearPolitics Generic Congressional Vote poll had Democrats at 50.5% and Republicans at 42.1%, up from September when Democrats were at 48.1% and Republicans at 42.3%. Texas Senate candidate Ken Paxton, in a leaked audio recording obtained by The New York Times, admitted that the convention negatively affected his numbers during a private fundraiser for donors. This admission suggests broader issues within the Republican base regarding Trump's influence on their campaigns and political performance.

Written for “Trump Midterm Convention Controversy” on 2026-10-06, grounded in this article and the 14 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The article's own words the score was based on. Each is quoted verbatim and was checked against the article text before being stored, so you can find it in the original.
Reading Leans strongly left (beta estimate) Confidence high 1 quote(s) discarded as not found in the article
Leaning: leans strongly left for article 60151 (high confidence, 2 verified quotes) · logged 2026-10-06

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
95
claim-shaped sentences
Uncertain
8%
8 of 95 hedged
Leaning
Leans strongly left
expected in commentary, which argues a position · beta estimate
Correction & hedging signals
not measured
these signals count newsroom corrections; Commentary has none to count
Outlets on this story
15
Politics
Narrative spread
1
articles carrying this framing
Analyzed 2026-10-06 · how these are computed

Story

📰 Trump Midterm Convention Controversy
Politics · 15 article(s) covering the same event. See how they differ ↓

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Compared with similar articles

This article reads leans strongly left and hedges 8% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Daily Mail
⚖️ Leans left further right than this 🔴 25% hedged 4 of 16 📰 publisher trust 65
“Both articles describe Ken Paxton's leaked audio admission of losing control over his campaign during a private fundraising lunch on September 24.”
The Independent
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 17% hedged 4 of 24 📰 publisher trust 59
“Both articles describe the same leaked audio recording of Ken Paxton's private remarks at a fundraising lunch on September 24, criticizing lack of control over his campaign due to involvement from Washington D.C.”
The Guardian
⚖️ Leans left further right than this 🔴 5% hedged 1 of 19 📰 publisher trust 60
“Both articles report on Ken Paxton's admission at a fundraising event about feeling little control over his campaign due to outside influence from Washington DC.”
Fox News
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 9% hedged 3 of 35 📰 publisher trust 69
“Both articles describe the same audio recording of Ken Paxton expressing frustration over lack of control in his campaign, originating from late last month.”
Daily Mail
⚖️ Leans left further right than this 🔴 5% hedged 2 of 39 📰 publisher trust 65
“While both articles discuss leaked audio involving Ken Paxton and Trump, they describe different instances of leaking, indicating distinct events.”
Daily Mail
⚖️ Leans left further right than this 🔴 5% hedged 3 of 55 📰 publisher trust 65
“The articles describe different parts of an ongoing series of events involving leaked audio scandals affecting Ken Paxton's campaign, rather than the exact same incident.”
Daily Mail
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 17% hedged 5 of 30 📰 publisher trust 65
“The articles discuss different aspects of Ken Paxton's campaign and interactions with Trump, rather than describing the exact same incident.”
New York Post
⚖️ Leans right further right than this 🔴 5% hedged 1 of 20 📰 publisher trust 64
“The articles discuss different individuals and contexts within Republican politics but do not describe the same specific incident.”

Publisher

The Bulwark · 315 article(s) · 0 correction(s) detected
No corrections detected for this publisher. That may mean careful reporting, or simply that nothing has been checked.

Who wrote this

William Kristol
18 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 Darline is a High Quality person, maybe the Highest, and Annie Trannie is not, in particular, as it pertains to representing the Values of the Great People of South Carolina
2026-10-06 · assertive framing · Grandpa Trump Is Getting Desperate
🔮 A 10-point swing would be a wave that puts lots of districts and states in play.
2026-10-01 · assertive framing · Trump + AI = Blue Tsunami
🔮 Who might “he” be, one wonders.
2026-09-30 · assertive framing · Eric Schmitts the Bed
🔮 AROUND THE BULWARK Could a Wave THIS Big Actually Happen?
2026-09-28 · assertive framing · ‘We Are Losing Our Soul as a Nation’
🔮 A recording from The Bulwark’s live video Trump’s White House is racking up losses, picking fights with the press, and increasingly operating without anyone willing to tell the president no.
🔮 One can imagine Trump and Xi looking at each other and asking, What reason could we possibly have to respect journalists?
2026-09-25 · assertive framing · Why We’re Going to Springfield
🔮 They also discuss Trump’s unfinished ambitions in Greenland, Xi Jinping’s visit to Washington, and Kagan’s warning that the breakdown of the postwar order could move much faster than Washington is prepared for.
🔮 Zelinsky explains why this fight over one building could become a much bigger test of the rule of law.
🔮 On the one hand, Trump has promised to sign a sweeping package which—as Andrew wrote yesterday—would hit Russia’s elite with new sanctions and give Trump the ability to hit Russia’s energy customers with tariffs.
2026-09-18 · assertive framing · Why Do We Even Have a Constitution Day?
🔮 Here we were thinking nothing interesting would happen in Congress for the rest of the year—and suddenly there was Rep. Thomas Massie yesterday, introducing articles of impeachment against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.
2026-09-16 · assertive framing · Bill Smokes the Hopium Pipe in the Land of Corn
Also by William Kristol
Trump + AI = Blue Tsunami
2026-10-01 · The Bulwark
Eric Schmitts the Bed
2026-09-30 · The Bulwark
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 18 articles by William Kristol →

Topics

GOP Republican Senate South Carolina Texas

Subjects

South Carolina GPE · 10× Trump PERSON · 10× Republican NORP · 4× Andrews PERSON · 3× Darline Graham PERSON · 3× Paxton PERSON · 3× Donald J. Trump PERSON · 2× Senate ORG · 2× GOP ORG · 1× Texas GPE · 1×

Narrative

The spokesperson noted that this is “the same answer to a question that the Governor has sliced and diced for his advertising purposes where he leaves out the second part of her statement,” and pointed to “Josh Shapiro’s position and ‘evolution’ on the issue,” accusing him of “selling out the people of Pennsylvania for his own political gain.”
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-06
🔮 Darline is a High Quality person, maybe the Highest, and Annie Trannie is not, in particular, as it pertains to representing the Values of the Great People of South Carolina
2026-10-06 · The Bulwark
Grandpa Trump Is Getting Desperate · assertive framing

Claims (95 extracted, 8 hedged)

The hot-mic moments just keep coming for Texas GOP Senate hopeful Ken Paxton. asserted
moments → come → Paxton
Last week, it was leaked audio of Paxton admitting that Trump’s ballyhooed midterm convention had actually hurt his numbers. asserted
convention → leak → numbers
This week, it’s audio of Paxton complaining about how little control he has over his own campaign strategy—since most of the money behind him is super PAC money from Trump. asserted
most → ’ → Trump
“I’ve never been in a race where I felt less control over the campaign and, like, what issues are going to matter,” Paxton told a small fundraiser room, “because it’s all coming—you know—from D.C.” asserted
you → feel → D.C.
The nineteenth-century American writer Henry David Thoreau famously claimed that “The mass of men lead lives of quiet desperation.” asserted
mass → claim → desperation
I’ve always thought this assertion unfair, even untrue. asserted
assertion → think → ?
But it’s neither unfair nor untrue to observe that one man, Donald J. Trump, is today exhibiting clear signs of not-at-all-quiet desperation. asserted
man → ’ → desperation
Yesterday afternoon, for example, Trump was engaged in a typical flurry of posts alternately attacking the media and promising $5,000 to Americans if they re-elect Republican majorities in Congress. asserted
they → engage → Congress
And then out of the blue came an attack on the Democratic senate nominee in South Carolina: asserted
attack → come → Carolina
Annie “Trannie” Andrews is running against our wonderful Darline Graham for the Senate in South Carolina. . . . asserted
Andrews → run → Carolina
Darline is a High Quality person, maybe the Highest, and Annie Trannie is not, in particular, as it pertains to representing the Values of the Great People of South Carolina asserted
it → pertain → Carolina
—She is in favor of Transgender for Everyone, Open Borders, Defunding the Police, High Taxes, a Weak Military, and will absolutely fight to take your guns away—In other words, she is against our Great Second Amendment! asserted
she → defunde → Amendment
Trannie is not for South Carolina, and South Carolina must show, in the upcoming Election, that it is not for her. asserted
it → show → her
VOTE FOR DARLINE GRAHAM—SHE HAS MY COMPLETE AND TOTAL ENDORSEMENT, AND WILL NOT LET YOU DOWN! asserted
SHE → vote → YOU
Before going on to explain Trump’s sudden interest in the South Carolina contest, I do want to note that his bigotry is of course revolting. asserted
bigotry → go → course
In a civilized era, it would be shocking to see it coming from a president of the United States. asserted
it → see → States
But we do not live in a civilized era. asserted
we → live → era
In a non-cowardly era, the slur would be denounced by Republicans as well as Democrats. asserted
slur → denounce → Republicans
But we do not live in a non-cowardly era. asserted
we → live → era
In a better era, Andrews’s Republican opponent, Sen. Darline Graham, would step up to criticize a supporter for using the term. asserted
opponent → step → term
But we do not live in a better era. asserted
we → live → era
She’s running for a supposedly safe Republican seat. asserted
She → run → seat
And since she knows that she needs to win Trump voters over to have a path to victory, she’s actually been sparing in her own attacks on Trump. asserted
she → know → Trump
As a mom and a pediatrician, I’m in this race to fight for my patients, my three kids, and South Carolina. asserted
I → ’m → patients
And I’m going to work with anyone to put South Carolina first, because lowering costs and making life better for families across our state is going to take all of us working together. asserted
all → go → us
If you care more about your bills than the politics in Washington, this campaign is for you. asserted
campaign → care → you
He hasn’t been to South Carolina recently, and isn’t scheduled to go soon. asserted
He → schedule → Carolina
When Natalie Harp (presumably) sent the post on his behalf at 5:23 p.m. yesterday, she and her boss were on Air Force One, heading to Nebraska, where Trump was going to campaign for that state’s endangered Republican, Sen. Pete Ricketts. asserted
Trump → send → Republican
I’d like to think that it was because yesterday, on Tim Miller’s podcast, I went out on a limb and suggested that Andrews had a real chance to win. uncertain
Andrews → like → chance
Could it be that Trump was watching the most recent Bulwark Daily podcast on Air Force One? uncertain
Trump → watch → Force
Who knows? asserted
Who → know → ?
Only Natalie, I suppose. asserted
I → suppose → ?
I suspect the explanation is simple: In recent political updates from staff, Trump has been told that South Carolina looked surprisingly competitive. asserted
Carolina → suspect → staff
The two most recent public polls on the South Carolina race, one of them from a decidedly Republican-friendly firm, have Graham leading by only one point. asserted
Graham → have → point
A news story over the weekend noted that “Republicans, for their part, said they expected Ms. Graham to need a financial boost to secure a win in the end,” and that there were “conversations about getting more help for Darline.” asserted
Graham → note → Darline
And then, just this morning, Axios reported that the main Republican Senate super PAC is shifting $5 million to South Carolina to help Graham. asserted
PAC → report → Graham
It seems President Trump and I are not the only ones who reached the conclusion that South Carolina is in play. asserted
Carolina → seem → play
And with a wave of the sort we’re seeing, why shouldn’t it be? asserted
it → see → sort
After all, Trump won Nebraska in 2024 by a wider margin than South Carolina, and he was in Nebraska last night trying to help save that Republican incumbent. asserted
he → win → incumbent
And last weekend’s New York Times/Siena polls had Democratic senate candidates up by seven and six points in Alaska and Texas, and South Carolina was only about five points more Republican in 2024 than those two states. asserted
Carolina → have → states
…and 55 more, not listed.
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