Reasons for Hope. Reasons for Alarm.

Read the original at The Bulwark ↗
The Bulwark · collected 2026-10-07 · by William Kristol commentary

Quick Summary

The article discusses both positive and negative aspects of the upcoming midterm elections under President Donald Trump's administration. On one hand, it highlights favorable polling numbers and Democratic momentum, suggesting that increased focus on Trump could benefit Democrats further. On the other hand, it notes potential divisions within the Republican Party, exemplified by Texas Governor Greg Abbott’s decision not to attend a scheduled Trump rally, which might weaken Trump's influence among Republicans.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-10-07, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

AI analysis runs on qwen2.5:14b, locally

Story summary

William Kristol discusses mixed feelings regarding the upcoming midterm elections in his piece "The Blue Wave. The Rocky Shore." On one hand, Democrats are performing well and doing less self-harm, which is encouraging for a potential "blue wave" victory. Donald Trump's disapproval rating stands at 61.9% according to polling aggregator FiftyPlusOne, while approval sits at 35%, suggesting voter dissatisfaction with his administration. On the other hand, Kristol expresses alarm due to the current state of President Trump’s leadership and its implications for the Republican Party. Additionally, it was revealed that two top aides to Trump, James Blair and Chris LaCivita, have been paid hundreds of thousands of dollars to consult for a pro-Russian government in Bosnia and Herzegovina, raising ethical concerns.

Written for “Global State of Affairs” on 2026-10-07, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The article's own words the score was based on. Each is quoted verbatim and was checked against the article text before being stored, so you can find it in the original.
Reading Leans strongly left (beta estimate) Confidence high
Leaning: leans strongly left for article 62897 (high confidence, 3 verified quotes) · logged 2026-10-07

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
84
claim-shaped sentences
Uncertain
7%
6 of 84 hedged
Leaning
Leans strongly left
expected in commentary, which argues a position · beta estimate
Correction & hedging signals
not measured
these signals count newsroom corrections; Commentary has none to count
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Narrative spread
1
articles carrying this framing
Analyzed 2026-10-07 · how these are computed

Story

📰 Global State of Affairs
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Compared with similar articles

This article reads leans strongly left and hedges 7% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
The Sydney Morning Herald
⚖️ Leans left further right than this 🔴 7% hedged 5 of 68 📰 publisher trust 61
“The articles discuss different activities of Trump administration figures, with Article A focusing on oil deal negotiations involving Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, while Article B mentions James Blair and Chris LaCivita's consulting work in the Balkans.”
The Bulwark
⚖️ Leans left further right than this 🔴 29% hedged 2 of 7
“The articles describe different actions by Trump's associates—one involving payments to voters and the other involving trips to the Balkans for consulting work.”

Publisher

The Bulwark · 326 article(s) · 0 correction(s) detected
No corrections detected for this publisher. That may mean careful reporting, or simply that nothing has been checked.

Who wrote this

William Kristol
19 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 About an hour and a half later, Trump had a further thought to share, this time in ALL CAPS: MY RALLIES ARE SAVING THE REPUBLICAN PARTY, AGAIN!!! Lots of Republicans would beg to differ with the leader of their party.
2026-10-07 · assertive framing · Reasons for Hope. Reasons for Alarm.
🔮 Darline is a High Quality person, maybe the Highest, and Annie Trannie is not, in particular, as it pertains to representing the Values of the Great People of South Carolina
2026-10-06 · assertive framing · Grandpa Trump Is Getting Desperate
🔮 A 10-point swing would be a wave that puts lots of districts and states in play.
2026-10-01 · assertive framing · Trump + AI = Blue Tsunami
🔮 Who might “he” be, one wonders.
2026-09-30 · assertive framing · Eric Schmitts the Bed
🔮 AROUND THE BULWARK Could a Wave THIS Big Actually Happen?
2026-09-28 · assertive framing · ‘We Are Losing Our Soul as a Nation’
🔮 A recording from The Bulwark’s live video Trump’s White House is racking up losses, picking fights with the press, and increasingly operating without anyone willing to tell the president no.
🔮 One can imagine Trump and Xi looking at each other and asking, What reason could we possibly have to respect journalists?
2026-09-25 · assertive framing · Why We’re Going to Springfield
🔮 They also discuss Trump’s unfinished ambitions in Greenland, Xi Jinping’s visit to Washington, and Kagan’s warning that the breakdown of the postwar order could move much faster than Washington is prepared for.
🔮 Zelinsky explains why this fight over one building could become a much bigger test of the rule of law.
🔮 On the one hand, Trump has promised to sign a sweeping package which—as Andrew wrote yesterday—would hit Russia’s elite with new sanctions and give Trump the ability to hit Russia’s energy customers with tariffs.
2026-09-18 · assertive framing · Why Do We Even Have a Constitution Day?
Also by William Kristol
Grandpa Trump Is Getting Desperate
2026-10-06 · The Bulwark
Trump + AI = Blue Tsunami
2026-10-01 · The Bulwark
Eric Schmitts the Bed
2026-09-30 · The Bulwark
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 19 articles by William Kristol →

Topics

Bosnia and Herzegovina Democrats FiftyPlusOne pro-Russian the New York Times

Subjects

Trump PERSON · 11× Democrats NORP · 5× Democratic NORP · 3× Abbott PERSON · 2× Donald Trump PERSON · 2× FiftyPlusOne ORG · 2× Texas GPE · 2× Chris LaCivita PERSON · 1× James Blair PERSON · 1× the New York Times ORG · 1×

Narrative

He castigated her vote for Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, said that Mainers shouldn’t trust her to pick the next justice who comes up for confirmation, and scoffed at her track record of voting for Trump’s priorities while using her leverage only to get certain kickbacks and carveouts for Maine.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-07
🔮 About an hour and a half later, Trump had a further thought to share, this time in ALL CAPS: MY RALLIES ARE SAVING THE REPUBLICAN PARTY, AGAIN!!! Lots of Republicans would beg to differ with the leader of their party.
2026-10-07 · The Bulwark
Reasons for Hope. Reasons for Alarm. · assertive framing

Claims (84 extracted, 6 hedged)

Donald Trump is a friendly boss; he lets his top aides freelance. asserted
aides → let → ?
Two of those aides, James Blair and Chris LaCivita, are spending most of their time spearheading midterms spending for Trump’s PAC. asserted
Two → spend → PAC
But last week, they both managed to find time for a quick trip to the Balkans, where—the New York Times reports—they have each been paid hundreds of thousands of dollars to consult on behalf of the pro-Russian sub-national government in Bosnia and Herzegovina. asserted
hundreds → manage → Bosnia
So it makes sense to be hopeful. asserted
it → make → sense
But it’s surely the worst of administrations. asserted
it → ’ → administrations
So it makes sense to be alarmed. asserted
it → make → sense
On the hopeful side: The blue wave shows no sign of abating. asserted
wave → show → sign
Democrats are doing a decent job of getting out of their own way. asserted
Democrats → do → way
Meanwhile Donald Trump is traveling around the country and doing his best to make the election about himself. asserted
election → travel → himself
According to the polling aggregator FiftyPlusOne, President Trump’s job disapproval stands at 61.9 percent, compared to 35 percent approval. uncertain
disapproval → accord → approval
There’s a simple lesson here: The more this election is about Trump, the better. asserted
election → ’ → Trump
The more the generic ballot numbers move towards the presidential approval numbers, the better. asserted
numbers → move → numbers
The more Trump visits competitive states for rallies that are all about himself, the better. asserted
that → visit → himself
The more ads we see that feature Trump, the better. asserted
that → see → Trump
Yesterday morning, stung by media reports that his rallies aren’t what they once were, Trump posted: My Rally crowds and enthusiasm are unbelievable! asserted
crowds → sting → reports
Nobody has ever seen anything like it. asserted
Nobody → see → it
We are flipping races all over the place. asserted
We → flip → place
It’s all happening! asserted
It → happen → ?
The Dumocrats [sic, needless to say] never counted on this. asserted
Dumocrats → say → this
About an hour and a half later, Trump had a further thought to share, this time in ALL CAPS: MY RALLIES ARE SAVING THE REPUBLICAN PARTY, AGAIN!!! Lots of Republicans would beg to differ with the leader of their party. asserted
Lots → have → party
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, for example, apparently has decided not to join Trump’s rally tonight in San Antonio. asserted
Abbott → decide → Antonio
After all, as Abbott explained, “Because of my schedule, where I go to multiple cities a day doing events like this, I already have events like this scheduled that day and will not be able to make it.” asserted
events → explain → it
It will be amusing to see what important event Abbott’s attending that couldn’t have been rescheduled to make room for the president. asserted
that → see → president
And it will be interesting to see if Trump takes offense at the slight. asserted
Trump → see → slight
A little intra-Republican squabbling in these closing weeks couldn’t hurt Democrats’ chances, either. asserted
squabbling → close → chances
As for the Democrats, they’re doing a pretty good job of riding the wave of voter discontent. asserted
they → do → discontent
They’re keeping the focus on the Trump administration’s failures and corruption, and on the Republican Congress’s complicity in them. asserted
They → keep → them
They don’t even seem to be over-thinking things and tying themselves in knots nearly as much as they normally do. asserted
they → seem → knots
Their biggest problem may be that many of their big donors and key operatives don’t seem to realize what a historic moment this year could be. uncertain
year → seem → donors
They’re being cautious when their party has a golden opportunity to win senate seats and governorships that have long appeared to be out of reach. asserted
that → have → reach
Democrats have a chance to turn a shrinking map into an expanding one. asserted
Democrats → have → one
The implications of a Democratic senate majority of fifty-four seats would be very different from getting to fifty-one. asserted
implications → get → one
And as for governorships, six of the ten most-populous states now have Democratic governors, and Democrats seem unlikely to lose any of them this November. asserted
Democrats → have → them
If Democrats win, say, two of the four, they’d govern eight of the ten largest states, and twelve of the largest fifteen. asserted
they → win → fifteen
This would affect the character of our politics going into 2028 and beyond. asserted
This → affect → 2028
The main reason is obvious: Trump and his loyalists will control the levers of executive power over the next two years. asserted
Trump → control → years
You’d have to be crazy not to be alarmed by what they can do during this time—to our nation’s well-being at home and to its standing abroad, to our civil liberties and civil service, to any remaining guardrails against corruption and lawlessness. asserted
they → have → corruption
So Donald Trump and JD Vance, Todd Blanche and Pete Hegseth, Stephen Miller and Russell Vought in positions of great power remain a clear and present danger to our constitutional republic. asserted
Trump → remain → republic
As do their collaborators outside the government. asserted
collaborators → do → government
The public has moved pretty decisively in the right direction over the past two years. asserted
public → move → years
…and 44 more, not listed.
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