This was how political analysts and many media outlets described the stunning victory of the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) party in local elections in Germany on Sunday.
asserted
analysts → describe → Sunday
It boasts a mere 1.7m out of 59m eligible voters nationwide.
asserted
It → boast → voters
How significant can its political sentiments be, especially since the AfD narrowly failed to win an outright majority?
asserted
AfD → fail → majority
The vote may have been regional but it impacts at national level.
uncertain
it → impact → level
The AfD landslide piles even more pressure on the already beleaguered centrist coalition government in Berlin.
asserted
landslide → pile → Berlin
It may prove to be the nail in the political coffin of Germany's deeply unpopular conservative Chancellor, Friedrich Merz.
uncertain
It → prove → Chancellor
He had promised to slash the AfD's popularity.
asserted
He → promise → popularity
These political woes will further weaken and distract Germany, the EU's most powerful player, at a time of continental crisis - as Europe struggles to contain Russian aggression, Donald Trump's tariff tantrums and the economic threat from China.
asserted
Europe → weaken → China
The Saxony-Anhalt result also provokes soul-searching throughout Germany, where the Nazi past still looms large.
asserted
past → provoke → Germany
The German authorities have labelled the AfD, in part, anti-democratic and a number of regional factions of the party, including Saxony-Anhalt, far right extremist.
asserted
authorities → label → Anhalt
The AfD is well known to be particularly popular in east Germany but it's now also polling as the biggest political party nationwide.
asserted
it → know → party
Germany's political mainstream has failed voters, it would seem.
asserted
it → fail → voters
What does Europe's biggest single economy, its most populous nation not counting Russia, do now?
asserted
economy → count → Russia
Tiny Saxony-Anhalt is causing waves outside Germany too.
asserted
Anhalt → cause → Germany
None other than the President of the United States swiftly posted the Saxony-Anhalt exit poll on his Truth Social platform on Sunday.
asserted
None → post → Sunday
The AfD's anti-immigration, anti-woke, "Germany for Germans" message chimes closely with Donald Trump's MAGA missive.
asserted
message → chime → missive
Along with a number of other nationalist parties in Europe, the AfD borrows heavily from the Trump playbook - undermining mainstream media, questioning the neutrality of judges and promising to "make Germany great again".
asserted
Germany → borrow → judges
Interesting to note though - the US president is rarely name-checked on the campaign trail in Europe.
asserted
president → note → Europe
He declared the AfD result "historic", Germany's national government "discredited" and the German Chancellor "humiliated", comparing Friedrich Merz to the UK's not-long-gone prime minister, Keir Starmer, who felt forced to resign this summer.
asserted
who → declare → minister
What interest might Russia have in German regional elections, you might ask, and what was Dmitriev's dig at the UK all about?
uncertain
dig → have → UK
The German government is the largest single donor to Ukraine and the UK is known to have provided Kyiv with missiles used to strike inside Russian territory.
asserted
UK → know → territory
This has deeply angered Moscow.
asserted
This → anger → Moscow
It wants to stop sending military aid to Ukraine, halt sanctions against Moscow and start buying much cheaper Russian energy again.
asserted
It → want → energy
Energy-hungry German industry suffered a huge economic blow after the country halted Russian energy imports, following the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
asserted
country → suffer → Ukraine
The AfD's softly-softly approach to Russia has another appeal in Germany's east, which remains far poorer than the west.
asserted
which → have → west
This, despite Germany spending between 2.3 and 3 trillion euros (depending on reports and whether inflation is taken into account) to help integrate the former communist part of the country after the 1989 fall of the Berlin Wall.
asserted
inflation → spend → Wall
Saxony-Anhalt is Germany's poorest region and there, as in much of east Germany, you often encounter what's known as "Ostalgie" amongst voters; essentially "nostalgia in the east" for comparatively more stable times under communism.
asserted
what → encounter → communism
Also watching the Saxony-Anhalt election closely was the European Union.
asserted
Union → watch → election
Ballots are expected in key nations France, Italy, Spain and Poland.
asserted
Ballots → expect → nations
Brussels fears more "extreme" parties, left but particularly right of the political spectrum, may benefit across the board.
uncertain
parties → fear → board
The leader of Spain's nationalist Vox party, Santiago Abascal, posted on X on Sunday that the AfD victory in Saxony-Anhalt was " a great hope for Germany and for Europe".
asserted
victory → post → Europe
By contrast, France's Europe Minister, Benjamin Haddad, an ally of centrist President Emmanuel Macron, warned "this is a serious moment in Europe, seeing the far right win in a regional election in Germany".
asserted
this → warn → Germany
Neither the AfD, nor other European parties labelled "extreme right" or "hard right", accept the label.
asserted
AfD → label → label
They also differ from one another in tone and party programme.
asserted
They → differ → tone
France's National Rally under Marine Le Pen kicked the AfD out of its grouping in the European Parliament two years ago, for being too "radical".
asserted
Rally → kick → Parliament
What the parties do tend to share, however, is an anti-immigration platform and strong nationalist messaging.
asserted
tend → tend → What
And that really worries the EU.
asserted
that → worry → EU
Whether it's a rallying cry for "Germany First" or "Italy First" or "France for the French!", the concern in Brussels is that the rise of nationalist parties strains European cohesion at a time when outside events demand it more than ever.
asserted
events → strain → it
Nationalist parties like the AfD or Italy's League Party tend to be deeply Eurosceptic, but Brussels says Europe needs to stand united to counter Donald Trump's bullying, for example, or to effectively protect European business against China's goods dumping.
asserted
Europe → tend → dumping
Europe's defence establishment also warns that fractures in European sanctions against Russia or countries going tepid on Nato membership (as you see in Marine Le Pen's National Rally for example, or Germany's AfD) just emboldens Moscow.
asserted
see → warn → Moscow
…and 9 more, not listed.
The Aporia
