Various branches of the Israeli government are warning that Hamas has prepared for an attack on the third anniversary of the Oct. 7, 2023, massacre, but experts say a meaningful offensive from the broken and battered terrorist group would be difficult.
asserted
offensive → warn → group
The Israeli National Security Council issued a travel advisory on Tuesday, warning of an “increased threat of attempts to harm Israelis and Jews abroad, alongside demonstrations and riots.”
asserted
Council → issue → demonstrations
The NSC requested the public refrain from posting about travel on social media, avoid destinations of concern such as Jordan and Qatar, and not participate in any “demonstrations and large gatherings.”
asserted
public → request → demonstrations
“Terrorist organizations, and particularly Iran and its proxies, Hamas, and Global Jihad factions, see this date as a significant milestone,” the council said.
asserted
council → see → milestone
Separately, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held a meeting Tuesday with members of his Cabinet, repeating his previous warning that Hamas will attack Israel to influence its elections.
“Because Hamas is so weak, it will try to challenge us with the remnants of its forces ahead of the election in an attempt to influence it,” Netanyahu said.
asserted
Netanyahu → hold → it
First and foremost, we will thwart such attempts, and in any event, we will respond with overwhelming force if they make that mistake.”
asserted
they → thwart → mistake
David Zini, the director of Israel’s counterintelligence service, Shin Bet, claimed at the meeting that his intelligence officials have observed “very worrying” indicators of terrorist activities among Bedouin enclaves in southern Israel.
asserted
officials → claim → Israel
Defense Minister Israel Katz, an outspoken proponent of Zionist settlements in the West Bank, was the most bellicose at the meeting, telling the other ministers that “preparations must be made for the possibility of an attack by jihadist elements [in the West Bank] against settlers and [Israeli] soldiers, as a lesson from the events of Oct. 7.”
asserted
preparations → tell → Oct.
“In such a case, war would be declared against the Palestinian Authority, and the [Israeli military] would launch a comprehensive offensive in accordance with a detailed plan formulated and approved by Prime Minister Netanyahu and by me, based on the principles outlined for the [Israeli military],” he explained.
asserted
he → declare → military
Katz warned that such a scenario would result in a “short and forceful war with a clear decision and a change in the reality” including “large-scale evacuation of residents and destruction of terror infrastructure inside the cities and in all refugee camps.”
asserted
scenario → warn → camps
The Defense Ministry has also instructed military personnel inside Gaza to operate on high alert through Oct. 7 “in light of intelligence regarding Hamas’s intentions to launch attacks against our forces in the area on that day.”
asserted
Ministry → instruct → day
Brian Carter, a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute who specializes in terrorism and the Middle East, told the Washington Examiner that there is a heightened threat because of the date itself.
asserted
who → specialize → date
“The heightened threat comes from the anniversary, and that’s true of so many of these terrorist groups — look at al Qaeda every year around 9/11,” Carter said.
asserted
Carter → heighten → 9/11
“There is heightened concern about the risk of attacks, and that heightened concern is warranted.
asserted
concern → be → attacks
But it’s also a matter of ‘What can Hamas do in its … presently degraded state?’
asserted
Hamas → ’ → state
And the answer to that is I just don’t think it’s that much.”
asserted
it → think → that
Carter said part of the reason for the massive number of warnings “is certainly Israeli domestic politics leading up to the Israeli elections,” which many voters see as a referendum on Netanyahu’s handling of the Oct. 7 attacks.
asserted
voters → say → attacks
Israelis will go to the polls on Oct. 27.
asserted
Israelis → go → Oct.
While Hamas still has the “latent capability” to plan “one-off attacks,” including “shootings and those sorts of things, whether that’s in the West Bank or in Israel proper,” Carter doubts that it has the logistical capacity in its current state to “conduct an attack out of the Gaza Strip right now.”
asserted
it → have → Strip
“I think [an attack in the West Bank] is far more likely than Gaza,” Carter said.
asserted
Carter → think → Gaza
“They still have networks and cells there that can carry out attacks on settlements, for example.”
asserted
that → have → example
Netanyahu has been pushing an alarmist attitude since last month, when he released a campaign video on an Israeli air base warning that the nation’s enemies would stage an attack to disrupt the election.
asserted
enemies → push → election
“There are signs that leading up to the elections, our enemies will try to attack us,” Netanyahu said in the video, speaking Hebrew.
asserted
Netanyahu → be → Hebrew
“I am sending [enemies] a message: Don’t mess with us.
asserted
I → send → us
Our long arm will reach you anywhere and at any time.”
asserted
arm → reach → time
The prime minister and his allies took credit for that warning following the attempted hijacking of a Flydubai airplane by an Omani pilot who was ultimately thwarted.
asserted
who → take → pilot
But opposition leader Yair Lapid said the information conveyed to him about the pre-election threats had nothing to do with such a scheme.
asserted
information → say → scheme
“Nothing that even resembles this morning’s plane incident appeared in last night’s security update with the Prime Minister,” Lapid said in a statement after the incident.
asserted
Lapid → resemble → incident
All the spin that the megaphones are doing now only proves what was already clear yesterday—that they’re once again trying to do cheap politics at the expense of Israel’s security.”
asserted
they → do → security
The Oct. 27 elections are viewed as a dead heat between an alliance led by Netanyahu and one led by rival Gadi Eisenkot.
asserted
elections → view → Eisenkot
Neither bloc is polling at levels that would allow them to form a government without Arab parties’ support, meaning the minority ethnic groups could end up becoming kingmakers.
uncertain
groups → poll → support
The Aporia
