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Yigal Carmon, an 80-year-old former Israeli counterterrorism advisor and founder of MEMRI, published a warning on August 31, 2023, about the potential for major conflict involving Hamas, Hezbollah, and other groups. Carmon noted increased threats of regional warfare in Arabic- and Persian-language media, citing the acquisition of sophisticated weapons by these organizations that could lead to significant Israeli casualties. Despite this alarm, there was no notable response from either Jerusalem or Washington; Jake Sullivan, President Biden’s national security adviser, had stated just days prior that the Middle East was relatively peaceful compared to recent history.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-10-05,
using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the
same event (that is the story summary below).
Story summary
On August 31, 2023, Yigal Carmon, a former Israeli counterterrorism adviser to prime ministers Shamir and Rabin, published an article on the website of his think tank, the Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI). The piece warned about potential signs of war in September–October. At 80 years old, Carmon did not predict that Hamas would specifically instigate a war or where it would begin. However, he noted heightened threats from militant groups like Hamas and Hezbollah due to Israeli operations targeting terror operatives. He emphasized these groups were acquiring and deploying more advanced weaponry, indicating an escalation in regional tensions.
Written for “Whistleblower Before October 7 Attack” on 2026-10-05,
grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The model judged this article politically coded and scored it +0.50, but all 4 of its quote(s) are attributed speech - words the article quotes from someone, not the article's own narration, so the score is not published.
Written under an earlier scoring contract, which gave a paragraph
rather than checkable quotes. Re-analysing this article replaces it.
Leaning score withheld for article 56478: attributed speech only · logged 2026-10-05
On August 31, 2023, Yigal Carmon, a counterterrorism adviser to Israeli prime ministers Yitzhak Shamir and Yitzhak Rabin more than a generation ago, published a warning on the website of his think tank, the Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI).
asserted
Carmon → publish → tank
“Signs of Possible War in September–October,” said the headline of the article, written from Jerusalem in Carmon’s succinct, often brusque style.
asserted
headline → say → style
Carmon, MEMRI’s 80-year-old founder, didn’t predict specifically that Hamas would instigate the war, or that it would begin on Israel’s border with the Gaza Strip.
asserted
it → predict → Strip
But he stressed that there were increased rumblings and threats of a major operation coming from the militant chiefs in the Middle East that he and MEMRI constantly monitor through Arabic- and Persian-language media channels.
asserted
he → stress → channels
“The leaders of the terror organizations have recently increased their threats of a comprehensive regional war, in response to Israeli threats to assassinate terror operatives and those who dispatch them,” wrote Carmon.
asserted
Carmon → increase → them
Carmon’s warning proclaimed that Hamas, Hezbollah, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), and other Iranian-backed proxy groups were acquiring and deploying increasingly sophisticated weapons and tactics that would compel a major Israeli reprisal.
asserted
that → proclaim → reprisal
Those weapons “can cause a large number of Israeli fatalities,” Carmon wrote.
asserted
Carmon → cause → fatalities
But that didn’t cause alarm in Jerusalem or Washington—or cause much reaction at all.
asserted
that → cause → reaction
President Joe Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, said the week before Hamas’s attack that “the Middle East region is quieter today than it has been in two decades.”
asserted
it → say → decades
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