The United States and Canada do a lot of business together — more than $1.2 trillion each year.
asserted
States → do → business
But on both sides of their North American border, negotiators cannot recall the atmosphere being this frosty.
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atmosphere → recall → border
"I do think this is a high watermark in terms of some of the tensions between the United States and Canada," said Kelly Ann Shaw.
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Shaw → think → States
"My observation is that the Canadian side feels it a lot more acutely.
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side → feel → it
I think Americans are a bit less stressed about the current dynamic than a lot of the Canadians are."
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lot → think → Canadians
It has been a fortnight since Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney ended comprehensive trade negotiations with the US, and Canadians are now bracing for what comes next.
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what → end → US
Canada is already facing tariffs on key exports such as steel, lumber, and automobiles.
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Canada → face → steel
US President Donald Trump is threatening even steeper tariffs starting next year, but for now, Canadians seem willing to risk severe economic consequences.
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Canadians → threaten → consequences
"I think you're going to see pushback from Canada.
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you → think → Canada
And I think Canadians understand that that might involve some economic or other sacrifice," said Kory Teneycke, former communications director for former Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper.
uncertain
Teneycke → think → Harper
Mr Teneycke said the proposed deal, which included tariffs on vehicles and giving the US a say over Canada's trade deals with other countries, was a non-starter.
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which → say → countries
"I think Canada would very much like to have a deal with the United States, but a deal, not a rollover, not an attempt to take over the country," he told 7.30
"Not a deal that is completely one-sided, that ends in the elimination of the auto sector in Canada while eliminating tariffs on US vehicles at the same time.
"
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that → think → time
Since the talks ended, the rhetorical temperature has risen in both countries.
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temperature → end → countries
White House trade advisor Peter Navarro called previous Canadian negotiators "backstabbing, double-dealing people that you really couldn't trust."
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you → call → that
Ontario Premier Doug Ford called Mr Trump "the type of guy in school that would take your lunch money".
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that → call → money
Not long after that, Mr Trump signed an order changing the name in the US of Lake Ontario to Lake America.
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Trump → sign → America
The lake acts as a water border, with Rochester on the US side and Toronto on the Canadian side.
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lake → act → side
"The president's renaming Lake Ontario, Lake America … [is] worthy of an internet troll, not a president of the United States,"Mr Teynecke said.
"As long as that attitude persists, I think that the willingness of Canadians to sit across the table and tolerate that is low.
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willingness → rename → that
Canada, a united nation
A recent poll found three-quarters of Canadians approved of Mr Carney's decision to walk away from trade talks.
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quarters → find → talks
This past week, Mr Carney's Liberal Party swept three federal by-elections with comfortable margins.
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Party → sweep → margins
"[The] vast majority of Canadians, including half of those who support the opposition Conservative Party, think he made the right call by walking away from the negotiations," said David Coletto from leading pollster Abacus Data.
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Coletto → include → Data
Mr Coletto thinks even though the stakes are high, the prime minister can afford to wait before getting back to the negotiating table.
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minister → think → table
"So many industries rely on the trade that crosses the border," he said.
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he → rely → border
"But on the other hand, Canadians don't want to feel that their sovereignty is at risk, that the United States is dictating to us the choices we have to make.
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we → want → choices
"I think it's that emotional resolve that I think is going to give our government more time to hopefully get this resolved."
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this → think → time
As for the US perspective, Kelly Ann Shaw said it is not surprising there is a very different version of why talks collapsed.
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talks → say → perspective
"What's been really interesting about this is that the Canadians and the Americans seem to be living in two alternate realities in terms of what happened,"she said.
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what → seem → terms
"The US side tends to think Canada is doing this for political reasons, that they're getting more for sort of walking away from the deal and that it wasn't about substance.
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it → tend → substance
So you're seeing the US play back in terms of some of this political theatre."
Are they ever getting back together?
Despite the rhetoric from both sides, Ms Shaw believes there is too much to lose for both countries not to eventually come to an agreement.
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countries → see → agreement
"I do think long-term, you have two of the world's largest trading partners, two national security allies, traditionally friends and neighbours with the longest border; they're going to work it out.
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they → think → it
It's just a matter of timing," she said.
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she → say → timing
Canadian tourists have been avoiding the US and found warm-weather spots in the Caribbean and Mexico to flee the winter.
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tourists → avoid → winter
And it could still take time for Canadians to buy American liquor once it is back on the shelves in provinces where it is now banned due to the trade war.
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it → take → war
Even if the nations do reach a deal, things may not return to what they were, especially for Canadians.
uncertain
they → reach → Canadians
"This has become a divorce, and when you divorce someone you've been with for a long time, there's going to be disruptions and costs associated with it," Mr Coletto said.
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Coletto → become → it
"But I think increasingly Canadians feel long-term, it is better for us to be less reliant on the United States than more.
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us → think → more
The Aporia
