What ‘threat’ worries Canadians most and other key findings of State of the Nation poll

Read the original at National Post ↗
National Post · collected 2026-10-02 · by National Post Staff

Quick Summary

A recent poll by Ashcroft Polls surveyed 10,098 Canadian adults about various issues including perceived threats to Canada, views on international relations, and domestic concerns. Canadians see a trade war with the U.S. as their top threat at 47%, followed closely by economic crisis at 38%. The survey also found that only 25% of Canadians now view the U.S. as an ally compared to 73% in 2022, and most expect tensions with the U.S. to continue past Trump’s presidency.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-10-02, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

AI analysis runs on qwen2.5:14b, locally

Story summary

An ambitious poll conducted by Ashcroft Polls surveyed 10,098 Canadian adults on various issues. According to the findings, 47% of respondents view a trade war with the United States as the most serious threat to Canada, followed closely by economic and financial crises at 38%, immigration concerns at 32%, and climate change in fourth place. When asked about their stance on international relations, 72% of Canadians prefer a government that stands up to the U.S., compared to only 28% who believe in seeking accommodations with it. In contrast, when considering China, 59% want Canada to seek cooperation rather than confront Beijing. The poll also revealed that perceptions of the U.S. have shifted dramatically since 2022; at that time, 73% of Canadians viewed the U.S. as an ally, but today, only 25% hold this view.

Written for “Canadian Poll Findings” on 2026-10-05, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
19
claim-shaped sentences
Uncertain
0%
0 of 19 hedged
Leaning
not political
takes no side on a contested political question
Correction & hedging signals
59.6
corrections and hedging in what we collected; not a measure of accuracy
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Narrative spread
1
articles carrying this framing
Analyzed 2026-10-02 · how these are computed

Story

📰 Canadian Poll Findings
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 0% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
National Post
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 15 📰 publisher trust 60
“The articles discuss different aspects and findings from separate but related events (a comprehensive poll vs. specific comments by Stephen Harper).”
Toronto Star
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 7% hedged 3 of 41 📰 publisher trust 63
“The articles discuss different topics: one is about a national poll in Canada, while the other focuses on Alberta's referendum questions.”
Al Jazeera
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 5% hedged 3 of 56 📰 publisher trust 60
“The articles cover different topics, with Article A discussing a poll about Canadian perceptions on threats and issues, while Article B focuses on conflicts between Prime Minister Carney's economic policies and labor unions.”
BBC News
⚖️ Leans right 🔴 9% hedged 4 of 46 📰 publisher trust 78
“Article A discusses a poll about perceived threats to Canada, while Article B reports on preparations for the possibility of a US invasion. These are different events.”
National Post
⚖️ Leans strongly right 🔴 11% hedged 4 of 35 📰 publisher trust 60
“Article A reports on a poll about Canadian concerns, while Article B discusses political relationships between countries and comments on Mark Carney's leadership.”

Publisher

National Post · 658 article(s) · 2 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 2 correction(s)
2026-09-29
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2026-09-27
Corrections Canada to distribute items for ‘safe snorting’ in federal prisons

Who wrote this

National Post Staff
8 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 A little more than three weeks from Toronto’s municipal election, Brad Bradford is closing on incumbent mayor, Olivia Chow.
🔮 When asked if they had to choose, 72 per cent of Canadians as a whole said they’d prefer a government that stands up to the United States versus 28 per cent who said the government should seek accommodations with the U.S. By comparison, 59 per cent of Canadians would prefer to seek cooperation with China rather than stand up to Beijing (41 per cent).
🔮 As for the success of the GoFundMe campaign, campaign organizer Derek Kreindler said in an online post, “I am astounded at the donations that have poured in, and never imagined we would raise over $500,000.
🔮 Any agency in Canada that doesn’t publicly reject this bastardization of history, and an insult to the souls lost during our largest terrorist attack in US history will no longer have friend in this FBI…
🔮 The U.S. is set to be hit with Canada’s retaliatory tariffs Tuesday, adding to the tension of an already complicated and costly trade war.
🔮 Trump signs executive order to rename Lake Ontario as Lake America Executive Order 14420 calls America “the greatest protector of the Great Lakes,” and states: “The body of water currently known as Lake Ontario is a tremendous asset to the United States and part of our Nation’s heritage.
🔮 “Walking away from trade talks and telling Canadians that we are all in this together is marvellous political theatre that will unite the country in hatred towards the U.S. and will boost the prime minister’s ratings,” Higgins writes.
Wire or desk byline, not an individual reporter.
Also by National Post Staff
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 8 articles by National Post Staff →

Topics

Ashcroft Polls Canada Canadian Canadians U.S.

Subjects

Canada GPE · 6× Canadians NORP · 6× U.S. GPE · 6× Ashcroft Polls ORG · 2× Canadian NORP · 2× China GPE · 2× Liberals NORP · 2× Americans NORP · 1× British NORP · 1× U.K GPE · 1×

Narrative

When asked if they had to choose, 72 per cent of Canadians as a whole said they’d prefer a government that stands up to the United States versus 28 per cent who said the government should seek accommodations with the U.S. By comparison, 59 per cent of Canadians would prefer to seek cooperation with China rather than stand up to Beijing (41 per cent).
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-02
🔮 When asked if they had to choose, 72 per cent of Canadians as a whole said they’d prefer a government that stands up to the United States versus 28 per cent who said the government should seek accommodations with the U.S. By comparison, 59 per cent of Canadians would prefer to seek cooperation with China rather than stand up to Beijing (41 per cent).

Claims (19 extracted, 0 hedged)

An ambitious new poll by British-based Ashcroft Polls surveyed 10,098 Canadian adults on a wide range of topics, from their thoughts on who is the country’s No. 1 enemy to their top kitchen-table issue. asserted
who → base → issue
After a trade war with the Americans (47 per cent), the most serious threat to Canadians as a whole was the risk of a new economic and financial crisis (38 per cent) followed by immigration (32 per cent). asserted
threat → follow → immigration
Climate change was fourth overall, followed by loss of jobs to robotics, AI and machine learning. asserted
change → follow → robotics
The U.K, Australia and France were more likely to be seen as allies of Canada, while Russia, Iran and the U.S. were the most likely to be seen as an adversary or threat. asserted
Russia → see → adversary
In 2022, 73 per cent of Canadians saw the U.S. as an ally. asserted
cent → see → ally
Today, only 25 per cent do. asserted
cent → do → ?
The U.S. vs China: Who should Canada stand up to? asserted
Canada → stand → Who
When asked if they had to choose, 72 per cent of Canadians as a whole said they’d prefer a government that stands up to the United States versus 28 per cent who said the government should seek accommodations with the U.S. By comparison, 59 per cent of Canadians would prefer to seek cooperation with China rather than stand up to Beijing (41 per cent). asserted
cent → ask → Beijing
Trump will still be a threat even after he’s no longer in the White House asserted
he → ’ → House
Most Canadians feel the same tensions with the U.S. will exist even after Donald Trump is no longer president by the time of the next federal election in 2029: asserted
Trump → feel → 2029
40 per cent said managing the Canada-U.S. relationship will be as important as it is now, with a further 42 per cent saying it will be even more important. asserted
it → say → relationship
The party and their leader’s approval ratings Canadians are more likely to have a net positive view of Mark Carney than of the Liberal party: 60 per cent had a positive view of Carney, compared to 55 per cent who had a positive view of the Liberals. asserted
who → have → Liberals
The reverse was true for Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, who scored a lower positive score (43 per cent) than his party (49 per cent). asserted
who → score → party
Who would you never vote for? asserted
you → vote → Who
A slightly higher proportion of voters said they would never vote for the Conservatives (27 per cent) than said the same for the Liberals (24 per cent) or NDP (22 per cent). asserted
they → say → Liberals
What are the most important issues facing Canada today? asserted
issues → face → Canada
The cost of living was chosen by 60 per cent of respondents as the most important issue facing Canada today, followed by health care, the economy and jobs, housing, and trade and tariffs with the U.S. Source: asserted
cost → choose → U.S.
Ashcroft Polls interviewed 10,098 Canadian adults online between July 31 and Aug. 17 asserted
Polls → interview → July
A poll sample of this size has a margin of error or plus or minus one percentage point. asserted
sample → have → error
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