How the Canada-U.S. trade war could affect Canadian consumers
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war → affect → consumers
Latest trade war escalation could lead to higher prices, fewer choices and longer waits for some products
The Canada-U.S. trade war has reshaped Canadians' view of their country, somewhat rekindled coast-to-coast-to-coast unity and dominated federal and provincial elections.
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war → lead → elections
For more than a year it has been steeped in the national psyche, and just when we thought a deal was near with our friend-to-foe southern neighbour, we instead face a new — steeper — round of tariffs, bans and counter-tariffs.
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we → steep → tariffs
Canada began imposing a new round of retaliatory levies on U.S. goods on Sept. 8, after the United States imposed new 50 per cent tariffs on $27.6 billion worth of Canadian goods.
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States → begin → goods
The U.S. then responded late last month with a set of bans on Canadian imports on some alcoholic drinks, dairy byproducts, molasses and motorcycles, among others.
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U.S. → respond → others
So, how could the latest in the dispute continue to reshape the Canadian economy?
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latest → continue → economy
Could the scramble to adapt help us diversify trade partners more quickly?
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us → adapt → partners
And, what products, if any, could become more difficult to access?
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products → become → ?
CBC News spoke to four experts in supply chains and retail to get a sense of what products could go up in price and how consumers may have to change their habits in the next few months.
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consumers → speak → months
They say the escalation between the two countries last month — which involved the U.S. raising tariffs after Canada and the U.S. failed to sign a new trade deal, then Canada imposing counter-tariffs, then the U.S. imposing full-scale bans — may be felt less in empty store shelves than in higher prices, fewer choices and longer waits for some products.
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U.S. → say → products
"Most goods should remain available, although some brands, models or specifications may disappear from the market," said Xiaodon Pan, an associate professor in supply chain and business technology management at Concordia University in Montreal.
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Pan → remain → Montreal
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The counter-tariffs are meant to focus on products where Canadian alternatives are available, and range from 15 to 25 to 50 per cent.
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alternatives → say → cent
They cover areas such as steel and aluminum, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, plastics and electronics — and include finished products as well as some components used to make other goods.
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They → cover → goods
One analysis out of North Carolina found that toilet paper in the U.S. could become "more expensive, less soft" because of President Donald Trump's 50 per cent levy on northern bleached softwood kraft imported from Canada.
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paper → find → Canada
'Prices are going up,' business prof says
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prof → go → ?
Back at home though, Matt Poirier of the Retail Council of Canada says shop owners began stocking up as soon as they knew tariffs were coming after the trade deal fell through between Canada and the U.S. in August.
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deal → say → August
The bulk of goods could prevent prices from significantly rising for at least couple months, he said.
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he → prevent → months
"They've been working overtime to find either alternate sources of supply, domestic or global," Poirier said.
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Poirier → work → supply
"But it does take a while for those supply chains to reroute."
While the impacts of the tariffs could take a bit of time, they could still be significant once those inventory supplies dwindle by the end of the year.
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supplies → take → year
Fraser Johnson, a professor at Ivey Business School at Western University in London, Ont., said retailers won't want to shock consumers and lose business in the short term, but, "in the medium to long term, prices are going up."
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prices → say → term
Johnson explained that while alternatives to U.S. products exist elsewhere, the increase of costs of U.S. goods will eventually lead businesses to boost prices on models from other countries as well.
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increase → explain → countries
Pan, of Concordia University, agrees.
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Pan → agree → University
She said that while clothing and cosmetics, for example, may have more international alternatives, consumers are likely to start seeing "higher prices and fewer brands, styles, shades," in those areas.
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consumers → say → areas
Outdoor gear fanatics could see similar phenomena, the experts said.
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experts → see → phenomena
Whether it's Maytag, GE, Frigidaire or high-end Wolf stoves, American companies take up a significant share the North American appliance market — but in Canada that could change very soon.
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that → take → Canada
While there are many South Korean and Chinese alternatives already readily available, prices for those products could go up as well as retailers try to recoup lost costs, as Johnson mentioned.
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Johnson → be → costs
As for parts for people who already own appliances from American brands, that could get a little tricky.
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that → own → brands
"A specific control board, pump, sensor or repair component may have very few direct alternatives," said Pan of Concordia University.
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Pan → have → University
She says the same goes for electronics and furniture.
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same → say → electronics
What about shortages?
Construction materials are where things start to get more dicey.
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things → start → shortages
Canada buys a lot of those from the U.S. — things like metal, plastic and foam building materials, paints, coats and adhesive, cement products and types of prefabricated wood.
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Canada → buy → wood
They're bulky goods that our shared border makes it easy to transport.
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it → share → that
That's one industry facing possible shortages, says Saibal Ray, the James McGill Chair professor for supply chain management at McGill University in Montreal.
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Ray → face → Montreal
Car parts could be another, due to levies on steel and aluminum, Ray said, as "availability might be an issue."
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availability → say → steel
Johnson agrees.
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Johnson → agree → ?
"If you're thinking about making a major purchase; if you're going through a home renovation — buying and locking in your prices earlier rather than later makes a lot of sense," he said.
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he → think → sense
Aluminum cans are shown after being filled with craft beer during a production run at Black Plague Brewery in Oceanside, Calif., last year.
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cans → show → Oceanside
Again, it's not just finished products affected here.
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it → finish → ?
Source materials may cross the border several times before becoming, say, a car part or food container, Pan explained.
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Pan → cross → border
She gave the example of aluminum cans for soda and beer.
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She → give → soda
…and 18 more, not listed.
The Aporia
