Explainer-Why renewed fighting in Ethiopia's Tigray risks a regional war
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fighting → renew → war
After months of tension, fighting has erupted in northern Ethiopia between federal troops and a rebel alliance headed by Tigrayan forces.
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fighting → erupt → forces
On the surface, the clashes look like the revival of the 2020-2022 civil war that pitted the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) against the federal government and killed hundreds of thousands of people.
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that → look → people
The opposing sides in the fighting have ties to countries embroiled in a string of other interconnected conflicts, rivalries and alliances, all driven by past enmities and competition over influence and territory.
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all → oppose → influence
That tangled web stretches from Chad in north-central Africa to the heart of the Middle East.
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web → stretch → East
Each intervention across one border risks adjusting calculations across others.
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intervention → risk → others
Experts fear war could spread far beyond Ethiopia’s frontiers.
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war → fear → frontiers
Unlike in the 2020-2022 war, Ethiopia and neighbouring Eritrea now find themselves on opposing sides.
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themselves → neighbour → sides
Conflict in their shared neighbour, Sudan, has drawn in both countries, alongside other states in Africa and the Gulf.
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Conflict → share → Africa
Down the coast, Somalia's security crises are deepening, threatening to fragment the country further as foreign powers eye its self-governing regions for their coastline.
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powers → deepen → coastline
Against this background, the Iran war and the involvement of Yemen's Houthis just across the Red Sea from Eritrea have increased concerns over trade routes through that waterway.
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war → increase → waterway
Underpinning much of the tension is the feud between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which escalated in Yemen last year but has spilled over into the Horn of Africa.
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which → underpin → Africa
In the last war, Eritrean forces supported Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government.
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forces → support → government
This time round, Ethiopia accuses Eritrea of backing the rebel alliance, an accusation Eritrea denies.
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Eritrea → accuse → accusation
Eritrea severed diplomatic ties with Ethiopia after Addis Ababa ordered the closure of its embassy in Asmara.
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Ababa → sever → Asmara
Diplomats and analysts say Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki is, for now, providing rebels with access to the coast and the rest of the world through his country.
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Afwerki → say → country
During the last war, Tigrayan forces were cut off on all sides.
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forces → cut → sides
At the heart of the shifting alliances are decades of conflict and distrust.
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decades → shift → conflict
Ethiopia and Eritrea fought each other between 1998 and 2000.
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Ethiopia → fight → 1998
One core point of contention is Ethiopia’s long-standing quest to restore direct access to the sea, lost when Eritrea gained independence in 1993.
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Eritrea → stand → 1993
The head of Ethiopia’s military has accused Sudan and Egypt of supporting Eritrean operations in Ethiopia.
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head → accuse → Ethiopia
Both countries have denied any meddling.
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countries → deny → meddling
Both are also at odds with Ethiopia over its development of a giant hydroelectric dam that they say could threaten their access to water.
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they → say → water
WHY IS THE ETHIOPIA FIGHTING LINKED TO WAR IN SUDAN?
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FIGHTING → link → SUDAN
Sudan has been divided by a three-year power struggle between its military and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) that has created one of the world's worst humanitarian crises.
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that → divide → crises
Both sides rely heavily on support from external backers, who are pressing for regional influence and pushing their own causes.
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who → rely → causes
The UAE, a major backer of the Ethiopian government, has supported the RSF, according to United Nations experts.
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UAE → support → experts
The UAE denies the accusations.
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UAE → deny → accusations
Ethiopia has also been accused of backing the RSF, including hosting a secret training camp in the west of the country.
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Ethiopia → accuse → country
Addis Ababa denies it supports the RSF.
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it → deny → RSF
For its part, Sudan's military has had backing from a range of actors, including Egypt and Eritrea, while maintaining close ties with Saudi Arabia.
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military → have → Arabia
Underscoring how such ties can stoke conflict across borders, several diplomats told Reuters some Tigrayan forces have fought alongside Sudan's army, and that Khartoum hosted meetings that led to the creation of the Ethiopian rebel alliance.
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that → underscore → alliance
In recent years, the UAE has become an influential player, forging relationships in the Horn of Africa through multi-billion-dollar investments, robust diplomacy and discreet military support.
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UAE → become → investments
The UAE has struck deals with Somalia's breakaway region of Somaliland and semi-autonomous Puntland - both of which could help give its landlocked ally Ethiopia access to the Red Sea.
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both → strike → Sea
Israel, also an ally of Ethiopia, is the only country to have recognised Somaliland as independent and is training local forces there.
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Israel → recognise → forces
Saudi officials say Emirati activities in Yemen and the Horn threaten their national security and Riyadh has been building its own alliance south of the Red Sea.
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Riyadh → say → Sea
An Emirati official said the Gulf and the Horn of Africa regions depended on each other and the UAE was providing essential investment and security that African leaders were calling for.
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leaders → say → that
While relationships are not hard and fast, Saudi Arabia is broadly aligned with Sudan’s military, Egypt and Eritrea - all of whom are rivals of Ethiopia.
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all → align → Ethiopia
The Aporia
