The Aporia
On September 23, fighting erupted in northern Ethiopia as the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) launched attacks into neighboring states, raising fears of a return to the devastating civil war from 2020-2022. In recent days, federal forces and pro-government militias have pushed the rebels back towards Mekelle, the regional capital in Tigray. By October 3, TPLF militants and leaders were leaving Mekelle, while federal forces had not yet entered the city. Concerns over looting and lawlessness emerged as government offices and police stations remained unsecured.
On October 4, pro-government forces reportedly gained full control of Mekelle and its main airport, Alula Aba Nega Airport, signaling a significant shift in the conflict dynamics. Ethiopian Airlines had previously suspended flights to Mekelle due to TPLF occupation of the airport. Meanwhile, regional rivals including Egypt, Somalia, Sudan, and Eritrea met in Alamein, Egypt to discuss the potential for a wider war involving more countries.