Vladimir Putin sent a message to dithering UK ministers last night by increasing Russian defence spending to a record 35 per cent of the Kremlin’s overall budget.
asserted
Putin → send → budget
The Russian President, whose invasion of Ukraine has already caused 1.5 million casualties on his own side, could use the war chest to attack Britain.
uncertain
invasion → cause → Britain
The record outlay comes as the top ranks of the Labour government procrastinate over when they will sanction desperately needed increases in UK defence spending.
asserted
they → come → spending
After resigning as Defence Secretary over then Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s failure to confirm defence spending will reach 3 per cent of GDP, one of John Healey’s first acts as Chancellor in Andy Burnham’s government was to put off the same announcement.
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one → resign → announcement
Despite Russia’s hybrid warfare campaign across western Europe, including inside Britain, Mr Burnham still appears determined to prioritise welfare spending instead.
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Burnham → include → spending
By comparison, the defence spending projections disclosed by President Putin make chilling reading.
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projections → disclose → reading
Next year, Russia plans to spend 17.1 trillion rubles on defence – around £150billion.
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Russia → plan → 150billion
UK investment in its armed forces and security infrastructure currently lingers at £62billion per year, or 2.7 per cent of GDP.
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investment → linger → GDP
While UK defence expenditure is expected to flatline at 2.7 per cent of GDP over the coming years, in 2027 Vladimir Putin will hike his military spending by 27 per cent
When he resigned as Defence Secretary in June, John Healey attacked the government's failure to commit to spending 3 per cent of GDP on the armed forces by 2030.
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Healey → expect → 2030
As Chancellor he has failed so far to offer that guarantee.
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he → fail → guarantee
As Defence Secretary, Wes Streeting's rhetoric on spending on the armed forces has been bullish, warning Labour's leftwingers to accept compromises in other areas.
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rhetoric → spend → areas
But while the UK must reach the NATO target of 3.5 per cent of GDP on defence by 2035, the government is yet to set out a timetable for how or when that target will be met.
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target → reach → timetable
Germany intends to reach it by 2030.
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Germany → intend → 2030
To reach the Nato defence spending target of 3.5 per cent of GDP by 2035, the UK government needs to find an additional £25billion each year for the next nine years.
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government → reach → years
So far, there has been no explanation from Mr Burnham about where those additional billions will be found.
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billions → find → Burnham
The increase to 17.1 trillion rubles is around 27 per cent higher than the 13.5 trillion Mr Putin previously budgeted for, and could cause the Russian economy to collapse according to Western officials.
uncertain
economy → budget → officials
Western intelligence assessments indicate that level of spending becomes unsustainable from 2028, while Mr Putin’s plans to mobilise a further 300,000 conscripts for the conflict in Ukraine will create huge gaps in Russia’s labour market.
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plans → indicate → market
Earlier this month, the UK Prime Minister was labelled ‘blasé Burnham’ after Britain failed to respond to Russia’s hybrid attacks on Nato territory.
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Britain → label → territory
Despite Poland’s PM warning the Kremlin intends to target Nato states, and France’s President warning that attacks are ‘intensifying’, the UK declared there was no change in Russia’s intentions.
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UK → warn → intentions
A growing number of European leaders are warning Russia may be prepared to test their commitment to supporting Ukraine even further.
uncertain
Russia → grow → Ukraine
In recent months, the Kremlin has launched ‘hybrid attacks’ across the continent, using drones packed with explosives.
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Kremlin → launch → explosives
This month, Poland, Lithuania and Germany have been targeted.
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Poland → target → ?
Those countries have responded by boosting their defence spending and their support for Ukraine.
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countries → respond → Ukraine
After convening a meeting at the Elysee Palace, France’s president Emmanuel Macron warned Russia was trying to ‘intimidate’ Ukraine’s allies and urged countries to protect sites involved in weapons production.
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Russia → convene → production
While in the UK, Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch and Reform UK’s Nigel Farage called on the Prime Minister to set out plans for security improvements.
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Badenoch → call → improvements
In a post on X earlier this month she urged the PM to match the ‘growing urgency’ of Nato allies by stepping up preparations for direct conflict with Russia and investing more in the country’s armed forces.
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she → urge → forces
Mrs Badenoch posted: ‘Macron and Tusk are speaking and acting with an urgency that makes the latest reports about Russia violating Lithuanian airspace even more concerning.’
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Russia → post → airspace
Former British Army intelligence officer Philip Ingram told the Mail: ‘A European war could lead to a global conflict.
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war → tell → conflict
I’ve not seen more dangerous conditions in the past 40 years.
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I → see → years
It seems that blasé Burnham will realise too late to do anything about it.
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Burnham → seem → it
It takes time to rebuild a credible defence capability.
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It → take → capability
We don’t have the luxury of time.’
asserted
We → have → time
The Aporia
