Roundup #86: Unintended consequences

Noahpinion · collected 2026-09-04 · by Noah Smith commentary
Read the original at Noahpinion ↗

Summary

The article discusses how the popularity of MAGA influencers is declining, with views on their YouTube channels and websites dropping significantly. According to the author, this is due in part to President Trump's policies, including his decision to start a war with Iran, which has split the voter base, and his failure to address inflation. The author notes that the movement has built no lasting institutions and has been marked by "pure populist rage," which ultimately leads to decline. Key numbers mentioned include the millions of views lost by MAGA influencer Benny Johnson on YouTube.
Written by the local model on 2026-09-05, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
177
claim-shaped sentences
Uncertain
5%
9 of 177 hedged
Leaning
Leans left
expected in commentary, which argues a position
Publisher trust
not scored
Commentary is not rated for newsroom trust
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Narrative spread
1
articles carrying this framing
Analyzed 2026-09-05 · how these are computed

AI analysis (generated at analysis time, not now)

Story summary

The audience for MAGA influencers is declining, particularly among Republicans who are growing frustrated with the rising cost of living and $1.4 trillion in new debt accumulated under President Trump. Benny Johnson's YouTube channel has seen a significant drop in views, down by millions from its peak in 2024, and his online presence on X has slowed to a trickle. This shift is partly due to his unwavering loyalty to Trump and the president's decision to start a war with Iran**, which has become unpopular among some Republicans. The decline of MAGA influencers reflects a potential change in sentiment among Republican voters, who are increasingly concerned about economic issues and foreign policy.

Written for “California Weed Killer Lawsuit” on 2026-09-05, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The article's own words the score was based on. Each is quoted verbatim and was checked against the article text before being stored, so you can find it in the original.
Score -0.35 Confidence high
Leaning score -0.35 for article 4268 (high confidence, 1 verified quote) · logged 2026-09-05

Story

📰 California Weed Killer Lawsuit
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event. This is the one the site leads with.

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

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Nothing to compare against. No article is close enough to this one for the pipeline to have linked or judged the pair.

Publisher

Noahpinion · 20 article(s) · 0 correction(s) detected

Commentary. The three signals behind a trust score all measure a newsroom's record with its own reporting, so they are not computed for this source. How trust is scored.

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Who wrote this

Noah Smith
18 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 Cyberwarfare so far hasn’t been decisive in military conflicts, but AI’s incredible cybersecurity prowess could change that.
2026-09-05 · mixed framing · America is still beating China in the AI race
🔮 You’d think a lot of these would be foreign, but international investors mostly avoided the boom (except for a few who bet big on Korean memory stocks).
2026-09-05 · assertive framing · Why did South Korean stocks just crash?
🔮 Would you like to see an example of a badly conceived policy?
2026-09-05 · assertive framing · Slopulism is taking over America
🔮 I remember using a hand calculator and seeing if my uncle could get it right without a tool faster than I could; more often than not, he could.
2026-09-05 · assertive framing · The end of the age of heroes
🔮 Some people thought Donald Trump’s approval rating would have a floor around 40%.
2026-09-04 · assertive framing · Are the Democrats going to save us this time?
🔮 It’s pretty amazing that a pause on data center construction has become such a consensus, middle-of-the-road issue stance that it’s the thing Hong’s supporters would rather talk about!
2026-09-04 · assertive framing · Banning data centers would blow up the U.S. economy
🔮 But I suppose there’s one reason it might be interesting, which is that over the past decade or so, a fairly large portion of the left-leaning intellectual class in America has become fairly-to-very resentful of the American tech industry, and has spent an enormous amount of intellectual effort on criticizing that industry.
2026-09-04 · assertive framing · The poverty of anti-tech thought
🔮 I’ve long predicted that MAGA is a wave that would ultimately break and recede.
2026-09-04 · assertive framing · Roundup #86: Unintended consequences
🔮 None of them made any attempt to say “Hey, what we’re doing could be harmful” and alert humanity to what was going on.
2026-09-03 · assertive framing · Roundup #87: Technology BAD!!
🔮 If we had flying cars, we’d enjoy the thrill for a few weeks, and then we’d be back to tweeting on our phones and wondering when the trip would be over.
2026-09-03 · assertive framing · Why you won’t get a flying car
Also by Noah Smith
Why did South Korean stocks just crash?
2026-09-05 · Noahpinion
Slopulism is taking over America
2026-09-05 · Noahpinion
The end of the age of heroes
2026-09-05 · Noahpinion
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 18 articles by Noah Smith →

Topics

Iran MAGA NYT Republicans The Blaze

Subjects

Trump PERSON · 7× MAGA ORG · 3× Republicans NORP · 2× Fuentes PERSON · 1× Iran GPE · 1× NYT ORG · 1× The Blaze ORG · 1× The Federalist ORG · 1× [Benny] Johnson’s PERSON · 1× [Nick Fuentes PERSON · 1×

Narrative

By lowering individual income tax rates and increasing corporate tax burdens, the Tax Reform Act of 1986 made the S corporation the better deal, and a growing share of business owners have given that income the name “profit.”… That change of label pulls down the measured labor share because the national accounts count S corporation profit as capital income.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-09-05
🔮 I’ve long predicted that MAGA is a wave that would ultimately break and recede.
2026-09-05 · Noahpinion
Roundup #86: Unintended consequences · assertive framing

Claims (177 extracted, 9 hedged)

The rabbit in the picture above is a breed known as a Flemish Giant. asserted
rabbit → know → Giant
Unfortunately, they only live to be about 7 or 8, much like very large dogs have short life spans. asserted
dogs → live → spans
Still, I highly recommend them as pets. asserted
I → recommend → pets
Anyway, I looked at the items in today’s roundup, and decided that many of them share the common theme of “unintended consequences”. asserted
many → look → consequences
Making sure that people understand the unintended consequences of their policies is a big part of what economists do. asserted
economists → make → what
That’s often easier said than done, of course. asserted
That → ’ → course
The MAGA wave is breaking and rolling back Now here’s some good political news. asserted
news → break → ?
Audiences for MAGA influencers are falling off a cliff: asserted
Audiences → fall → cliff
The surge of attention he received on X has slowed to a trickle. asserted
he → receive → trickle
His loyalty to Mr. Trump has become unappealing to some Republicans who are frustrated with the rising cost of living and the president’s decision to start a war with Iran… asserted
who → become → Iran
Other high-profile right-wing influencers are contending with similar shifts of fortune… asserted
influencers → contend → fortune
Views are dropping for many of Mr. Trump’s greatest allies… asserted
Views → drop → allies
[Nick Fuentes] saw notable gains in 2025 and early 2026 but is now trending down. asserted
Fuentes → see → 2025
“It seems that everyone in the space is experiencing a drop-off in views from 2025,” Mr. Fuentes wrote… asserted
Fuentes → seem → 2025
[M]any right-wing websites have seen larger declines, including The Blaze and The Federalist. asserted
websites → see → Blaze
I’ve long predicted that MAGA is a wave that would ultimately break and recede. asserted
that → predict → ?
The movement has built no lasting institutions — no civic groups, no religious revival, no professional associations, no governmental institutions, nothing. asserted
movement → build → institutions
It’s a blast of pure populist rage, and those don’t ever last very long. asserted
those → ’ → rage
Trump’s blunders, of course, have hastened the decline. asserted
blunders → hasten → decline
The Iran war has naturally split a voter base who was told that they were voting against Middle Eastern wars. asserted
they → split → wars
Trump was elected to do something about inflation, but he hasn’t done anything; in fact, his tariffs have made it worse. asserted
it → elect → fact
The only campaign promise Trump has delivered on was reducing immigration, but it turns out that reducing immigration doesn’t actually make a material difference in the lives of Americans. asserted
reducing → deliver → Americans
To all this, add the typical thermostatic effect, wherein people consume more partisan media when their party is out of power. asserted
party → add → power
Trump is no longer the rebellion, so Republicans are less angry, so there’s less reason to sit around listening to media grifters whose whole shtick is to feed you constant ragebait. asserted
shtick → ’ → ragebait
Anyway, this just strengthens my long-held view that popular unrest has actually peaked in America and is on the decline. asserted
unrest → strengthen → decline
If the GOP can use this moment to throw off the yoke of the Trump personality cult and return to something approximating normalcy, I think we’ll have one more round of crazy (the DSA), and then perhaps go back to some semblance of reasonable, productive politics. asserted
we → use → politics
Why is the labor share falling? asserted
share → fall → ?
Since the turn of the century, workers have been taking home less and less of what the nation produces: asserted
nation → take → what
This fact has spawned a lot of discourse about AI taking jobs, the need to redistribute capital income, and so on. asserted
AI → spawn → income
Owen Zidar and Eric Zwick have two new blog posts explaining how a lot of the change you see on that graph might actually just be a statistical illusion due to some tax policy changes. uncertain
you → have → changes
The first post explains the effect of the rise of pass-through corporations like S-corps. asserted
post → explain → corps
Basically, what a standard corporation would record as labor compensation often gets reclassified as profit: asserted
record → record → profit
In a paper with Danny Yagan and Matt Smith, we found that when a company converts from a C corporation to an S corporation, reported wages drop and reported profits jump… asserted
profits → find → corporation
A top-earning S corporation owner who pays herself in profit instead of wages avoids the 3.8% levy that applies to her wage income. asserted
that → earn → income
A C corporation owner has the opposite incentive. asserted
owner → have → incentive
Wages are deductible, so paying yourself a salary avoids the corporate tax and payout tax on dividends. asserted
paying → pay → dividends
By lowering individual income tax rates and increasing corporate tax burdens, the Tax Reform Act of 1986 made the S corporation the better deal, and a growing share of business owners have given that income the name “profit.”… That change of label pulls down the measured labor share because the national accounts count S corporation profit as capital income. asserted
accounts → lower → income
When we add these recharacterized wages back into the labor income bucket, then the corporate labor share in 2017 is about 0.9 percentage points higher. asserted
share → add → 2017
The second post explains how the increasing tendency to pay employees in stock instead of cash makes it look as if labor income is lower than it is: asserted
it → explain → cash
A few years ago, Andrea Eisfeldt, Antonio Falato, and Mindy Z. Xiaolan (EFX) published a fascinating paper called “Human Capitalists,” which focused on the growing role of stock-based compensation for workers at public companies… asserted
which → publish → companies
…and 137 more, not listed.
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