Roundup #86: Unintended consequences

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Cite

Smith, N. (2026, September 4). Roundup #86: Unintended consequences. Noahpinion. https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/roundup-86-unintended-consequences

Dated when The Aporia collected the article, usually within hours of publication. Check the original for its exact date and byline.

Noahpinion · collected 2026-09-04 · by Noah Smith commentary

Quick Summary

The article discusses how the popularity of MAGA influencers is declining, with views on their YouTube channels and websites dropping significantly. According to the author, this is due in part to President Trump's policies, including his decision to start a war with Iran, which has split the voter base, and his failure to address inflation. The author notes that the movement has built no lasting institutions and has been marked by "pure populist rage," which ultimately leads to decline. Key numbers mentioned include the millions of views lost by MAGA influencer Benny Johnson on YouTube.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-09-05, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

AI analysis runs on qwen2.5:14b, locally

Story summary

The audience for MAGA influencers is declining, particularly among Republicans who are growing frustrated with the rising cost of living and $1.4 trillion in new debt accumulated under President Trump. Benny Johnson's YouTube channel has seen a significant drop in views, down by millions from its peak in 2024, and his online presence on X has slowed to a trickle. This shift is partly due to his unwavering loyalty to Trump and the president's decision to start a war with Iran**, which has become unpopular among some Republicans. The decline of MAGA influencers reflects a potential change in sentiment among Republican voters, who are increasingly concerned about economic issues and foreign policy.

Written for “California Weed Killer Lawsuit” on 2026-10-22, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 California Weed Killer Lawsuit
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

Nothing to compare against. No article is close enough to this one for the pipeline to have linked or judged the pair.
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
177
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
5%
9 of 177 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
Leans left
expected in commentary, which argues a position · beta estimate
Publisher signals
not measured
these signals count newsroom corrections; Commentary has none to count
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-09-05 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

Noahpinion · 44 article(s) · 0 correction(s) detected
No corrections detected for this publisher. That may mean careful reporting, or simply that nothing has been checked.

Who wrote this

Noah Smith
35 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
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2026-10-18 · assertive framing · Why are we ruled by barbarians?
🔮 Somehow I never got around to writing that post, and now I never will.
2026-10-13 · assertive framing · A Nobel for New Keynesian macro, at last!
🔮 The trick will probably fail, just as Trump’s promise to give every American $5000 for voting Republican backfired.
2026-10-11 · assertive framing · Why Donald Trump won in 2024
🔮 Right now I can’t even think of what an appropriate comparison would be.
2026-10-09 · assertive framing · Maybe the Rapture is already here
🔮 In 1998 he famously wrote: The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in ‘Metcalfe’s law’—which states that the number of potential connections in a network is proportional to the square of the number of participants—becomes apparent: most people have nothing to say to each other!
2026-10-05 · assertive framing · What the AI boom is doing for Americans
🔮 I wrote one of them back in May:
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2026-10-01 · assertive framing · Roundup #89: It isn’t X, it’s Y
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2026-09-25 · assertive framing · Four eras of San Francisco tech culture
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Also by Noah Smith
France and the limits of liberalism
2026-10-22 · Noahpinion
Why are we ruled by barbarians?
2026-10-18 · Noahpinion
Why Donald Trump won in 2024
2026-10-11 · Noahpinion
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 35 articles by Noah Smith →

Topics

Iran MAGA NYT Republicans The Blaze

Subjects

Trump PERSON · 7× MAGA ORG · 3× Republicans NORP · 2× Fuentes PERSON · 1× Iran GPE · 1× NYT ORG · 1× The Blaze ORG · 1× The Federalist ORG · 1× [Benny] Johnson’s PERSON · 1× [Nick Fuentes PERSON · 1×

Narrative

By lowering individual income tax rates and increasing corporate tax burdens, the Tax Reform Act of 1986 made the S corporation the better deal, and a growing share of business owners have given that income the name “profit.”… That change of label pulls down the measured labor share because the national accounts count S corporation profit as capital income.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-09-05
🔮 I’ve long predicted that MAGA is a wave that would ultimately break and recede.
2026-09-05 · Noahpinion
Roundup #86: Unintended consequences · assertive framing

Claims (177 extracted, 9 hedged)

The rabbit in the picture above is a breed known as a Flemish Giant. asserted
rabbit → know → Giant
Unfortunately, they only live to be about 7 or 8, much like very large dogs have short life spans. asserted
dogs → live → spans
Still, I highly recommend them as pets. asserted
I → recommend → pets
Anyway, I looked at the items in today’s roundup, and decided that many of them share the common theme of “unintended consequences”. asserted
many → look → consequences
Making sure that people understand the unintended consequences of their policies is a big part of what economists do. asserted
economists → make → what
That’s often easier said than done, of course. asserted
That → ’ → course
The MAGA wave is breaking and rolling back Now here’s some good political news. asserted
news → break → ?
Audiences for MAGA influencers are falling off a cliff: asserted
Audiences → fall → cliff
The surge of attention he received on X has slowed to a trickle. asserted
he → receive → trickle
His loyalty to Mr. Trump has become unappealing to some Republicans who are frustrated with the rising cost of living and the president’s decision to start a war with Iran… asserted
who → become → Iran
Other high-profile right-wing influencers are contending with similar shifts of fortune… asserted
influencers → contend → fortune
Views are dropping for many of Mr. Trump’s greatest allies… asserted
Views → drop → allies
[Nick Fuentes] saw notable gains in 2025 and early 2026 but is now trending down. asserted
Fuentes → see → 2025
“It seems that everyone in the space is experiencing a drop-off in views from 2025,” Mr. Fuentes wrote… asserted
Fuentes → seem → 2025
[M]any right-wing websites have seen larger declines, including The Blaze and The Federalist. asserted
websites → see → Blaze
I’ve long predicted that MAGA is a wave that would ultimately break and recede. asserted
that → predict → ?
The movement has built no lasting institutions — no civic groups, no religious revival, no professional associations, no governmental institutions, nothing. asserted
movement → build → institutions
It’s a blast of pure populist rage, and those don’t ever last very long. asserted
those → ’ → rage
Trump’s blunders, of course, have hastened the decline. asserted
blunders → hasten → decline
The Iran war has naturally split a voter base who was told that they were voting against Middle Eastern wars. asserted
they → split → wars
Trump was elected to do something about inflation, but he hasn’t done anything; in fact, his tariffs have made it worse. asserted
it → elect → fact
The only campaign promise Trump has delivered on was reducing immigration, but it turns out that reducing immigration doesn’t actually make a material difference in the lives of Americans. asserted
reducing → deliver → Americans
To all this, add the typical thermostatic effect, wherein people consume more partisan media when their party is out of power. asserted
party → add → power
Trump is no longer the rebellion, so Republicans are less angry, so there’s less reason to sit around listening to media grifters whose whole shtick is to feed you constant ragebait. asserted
shtick → ’ → ragebait
Anyway, this just strengthens my long-held view that popular unrest has actually peaked in America and is on the decline. asserted
unrest → strengthen → decline
If the GOP can use this moment to throw off the yoke of the Trump personality cult and return to something approximating normalcy, I think we’ll have one more round of crazy (the DSA), and then perhaps go back to some semblance of reasonable, productive politics. asserted
we → use → politics
Why is the labor share falling? asserted
share → fall → ?
Since the turn of the century, workers have been taking home less and less of what the nation produces: asserted
nation → take → what
This fact has spawned a lot of discourse about AI taking jobs, the need to redistribute capital income, and so on. asserted
AI → spawn → income
Owen Zidar and Eric Zwick have two new blog posts explaining how a lot of the change you see on that graph might actually just be a statistical illusion due to some tax policy changes. uncertain
you → have → changes
The first post explains the effect of the rise of pass-through corporations like S-corps. asserted
post → explain → corps
Basically, what a standard corporation would record as labor compensation often gets reclassified as profit: asserted
record → record → profit
In a paper with Danny Yagan and Matt Smith, we found that when a company converts from a C corporation to an S corporation, reported wages drop and reported profits jump… asserted
profits → find → corporation
A top-earning S corporation owner who pays herself in profit instead of wages avoids the 3.8% levy that applies to her wage income. asserted
that → earn → income
A C corporation owner has the opposite incentive. asserted
owner → have → incentive
Wages are deductible, so paying yourself a salary avoids the corporate tax and payout tax on dividends. asserted
paying → pay → dividends
By lowering individual income tax rates and increasing corporate tax burdens, the Tax Reform Act of 1986 made the S corporation the better deal, and a growing share of business owners have given that income the name “profit.”… That change of label pulls down the measured labor share because the national accounts count S corporation profit as capital income. asserted
accounts → lower → income
When we add these recharacterized wages back into the labor income bucket, then the corporate labor share in 2017 is about 0.9 percentage points higher. asserted
share → add → 2017
The second post explains how the increasing tendency to pay employees in stock instead of cash makes it look as if labor income is lower than it is: asserted
it → explain → cash
A few years ago, Andrea Eisfeldt, Antonio Falato, and Mindy Z. Xiaolan (EFX) published a fascinating paper called “Human Capitalists,” which focused on the growing role of stock-based compensation for workers at public companies… asserted
which → publish → companies
…and 137 more, not listed.
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